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Archives 2010s >> 2015 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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03C KILO: Pos. Threat to Hawaii
      #95560 - Tue Aug 18 2015 01:19 AM



An area of increasing convergence within the monsoonal trough southeast of Hawaii has been designated Invest 93C.

As of Aug 17, 2015 6:00 pm HST, 93C was estimated to be centered roughly near 7.5N 143W. This location is about 1200 miles southeast of the Big Island, and movement is nearly stationary. However, the disturbance may be re-consolidating west of there, placing a potential new center more like 950 miles south-southeast of Hawaii.

The lowest pressure within this area of disturbed weather looks to be around 1007mb, with maximum sustained winds of 25MPH.

Invest 93C is worth paying attention to. Several models have developed this feature into a significant tropical cyclone, with a few runs recurving the cyclone poleward across the island chain from the south or south-southwest. Historically such a track can be very supportive of maintaining or even intensifying tropical cyclones that approach the Hawaiian islands.

CPHC gives 93C a 50% chance of development within the next 48 hours.

This is where to post thoughts on 93Cs potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.


Title changed to reflect Tropical Depression designation. Title changed to reflect upgrade to TS Kilo

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 21 2015 10:37 AM)


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Stork
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Re: Central Pacific Invest 93C - Another Potential Threat to Hawaii [Re: cieldumort]
      #95564 - Tue Aug 18 2015 09:04 AM

Yes, this one will need to be watched very carefully. The latest GFS model run is nervy enough that people in Hawai'i should be very alert to the possibility of a storm. As cieldumort notes, it's not often that the storms that march west across the Pacific affect Hawai'i, but rather the real threats tend to be those that form to the south.

My biggest concern regarding Hawai'i, in a general way, having grown up there and still having family on O'ahu, is that the state, both as an entity and the individuals who live there, is woefully underprepared for a major tropical cyclone. At least as of this morning, the CPHC is still giving a 50% chance for development over the next 48 hours, so I will take some comfort in that, but this particular disturbance is making me quite uncomfortable.


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cieldumort
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Re: Central Pacific Invest 93C - Another Potential Threat to Hawaii [Re: cieldumort]
      #95572 - Tue Aug 18 2015 12:15 PM

Overnight Monday, Invest 93C seems to have been developing a stable low level circulation in the vicinity of 8.5N 151W, within an area of very deep convection.

Most recent model runs robustly forecast a Hawaiian impact.

06Z GFDL initializes close to this point, but quickly ingests it back into the ITCZ, to redevelop further east in about two days (redevelopment further east now looking less likely, but still plausible). By Sunday this redeveloped 93C is just south of the islands as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane, heading almost due north.

06Z HWRF initializes close to this point and quickly ramps 93C up to a minimal tropical storm later today, only to also have this feature largely consumed by the ITCZ by tomorrow morning, and then breaks it out from north of its present location late this week to approach the islands over the weekend as a depression or weak storm.

06Z GFS initializes close to this point and generally maintains the present Low center all the way though to an eventual track over the islands from the south, crossing as a weak tropical storm and actually intensifying once north of the islands.

00Z ECMWF initializes in this general area, and splits the region into two cyclones, with the weaker satellite to the northeast briefly spinning around a healthier system to its south, crossing the islands from the east. The stronger cyclone then travels southeast to northwest, tracking just south of the islands as it does so.

00Z CMC which runs hot, but also was the first of the models to anticipate the development of 93C, initializes in this region - and like the ECMWF, also splits the area of disturbed weather into two distinct cyclones - with 93C rapidly developing and turning poleward, approaching and crossing the Big Island from the southeast as a hurricane.


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cieldumort
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Re: Central Pacific Invest 93C - Another Potential Threat to Hawaii [Re: cieldumort]
      #95609 - Thu Aug 20 2015 02:03 PM

Model runs that recentered 93C a little east of the original "center" have called it correctly. 93C is continuing to consolidate and organize closer to 149W now, and this feature could be declared a Tropical Depression by tomorrow.

Cyclone Invest 93C is now located near 10N 149W, or about 1000 miles south-southeast of the islands, with an estimated min pressure of 1006mb. Movement is towards the west-northwest.

The GFDL seemed to have handled the present development of 93C just about best from earlier runs. The most recent run now builds 93C up into a powerful hurricane that recurves up from the south or south-southwest and brushes the westernmost part of the island chain while a Cat 4 major hurricane. Given the exceptionally El Nino fueled warm waters and low shear environment, this is not out to lunch and will definitely be something to watch.



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vpbob21
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Re: Central Pacific Invest 93C - Another Potential Threat to Hawaii [Re: cieldumort]
      #95610 - Thu Aug 20 2015 02:27 PM

The CPHC has upgraded this to TD 3-C. Advisories to begin at 11:00 HST.

The 1200Z GFS and GFDL runs pretty much hold serve with their 0600Z runs (GFDL a little weaker) still showing a significant system passing near Kauai sometime late Mon./early Tues.


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cieldumort
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Re: 03C KILO: Pos. Threat to Hawaii [Re: cieldumort]
      #95629 - Fri Aug 21 2015 11:01 AM

03C has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Kilo this morning by the CPHC.

The most recent model runs have shifted well west, with the ECMWF the furthest west - and weakest (which is possible, but does not look all that likely). While this model is usually excellent, it can sometimes lack the ability to capture storms at smaller scales accurately, and ends up behind the curve.

The remainder of the primary models track KILO near or somewhat west of O'ahu, heading north, with several members showing a still strengthening cyclone at that point and time.

KILO is a mid-sized tropical cyclone, could be growing larger, and even a glancing blow of its front-facing, northeastern quadrant on the mountainous islands as a strong tropical cyclone could be treacherous. Furthermore, the models this far out are simply too unreliable to hang ones hat on. Most runs on KILO do not capture 04C to its northwest, which while small, could impart some changes in the steering currents, for example.

Easterly shear presently displacing deep convection to the west is forecast to begin relaxing, and KILO is expected to continue strengthening through the forecast period.


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cieldumort
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Re: 03C KILO: Pos. Threat to Hawaii [Re: cieldumort]
      #95642 - Sat Aug 22 2015 03:30 AM

"KILO" is not doing so well Friday night. Recon has confirmed the presence of a disorganized and elongated area of low pressure with multiple centers and tropical storm force winds aloft that are not being transported down to or natively present at the surface.

This mission also found the degrading cyclone drifting to the west-southwest, now due south of the Big Island of Hawaii.

For all its bluster, it appears that Kilo may have never been sufficiently stacked to withstand very modest easterly shear. Given this, it is now plausible that unless it sufficiently reorganizes by maybe mid-day Saturday HST, which is what the forecast calls for, Kilo could be declared post-tropical. Should this occur, it would be still closely monitored for any signs of redevelopment.



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