Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - 25 Years Tracking StormsHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Area off the coast only 10% chance to develop If it develops it likely is short lived and goes out to sea. Season ends Nov 30th.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 29 (Zeta) , Major: 92 (Laura) Florida - Any: 778 (Michael) Major: 778 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 991
Loc: parrish,fl
2020 prediction
      #100887 - Mon Apr 13 2020 03:41 PM

16 storms
8 hurricane
4 intense (3 or higher)

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: doug]
      #100926 - Tue May 12 2020 11:45 AM

19/10/7

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bob3d
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Pasco County, Florida
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: doug]
      #100929 - Tue May 12 2020 12:50 PM

20/10/5

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 49
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: doug]
      #100931 - Tue May 12 2020 04:48 PM

22/12/5

--------------------
2020 forecast 22/12/5 ; 28/12/5 as of 11/3

South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BloodstarModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 458
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: Kraig]
      #100934 - Wed May 13 2020 08:32 PM

First, a small brag. I finally got my Master's degree in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences from Georgia Tech. Not Sure if I'm going to go PhD or get a 'real' job. But one step at a time.

Now, onto my predictions:
(Tropical Depressions = 18 - just for my own baseline)
Tropical Storms: 17
Hurricanes= 7
Major Hurricanes = 4
(ACE = 145)

I've finally convinced myself that shear will be high enough to reduce the total hurricane numbers down, but it will still be an active season overall Storms will get going, but a lot will be weak and sheared, but if they do find a pocket to develop, they'll take off like they ingested rocket fuel.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
29/28/12/05
18/17/7/04


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 113
Loc: Ohio
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: doug]
      #100936 - Wed May 13 2020 11:17 PM

19/9/5

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: doug]
      #100937 - Thu May 14 2020 09:26 AM

15/9/4

Was going to start with 16 named then progressively divide by 2 (like Doug and CSU's April forecast), but in order not to duplicate I subtracted 1 from named, added 1 to canes and kept majors at 4.

I believe shear will somewhat temper the strength and the total number of tropical storms, but if 50-60 mph is achieved, game on for additional (and potentially rapid) intensification given historically warm SST's in the MDR:
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa...hurricanes.html

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 156
Loc: Central Florida
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: doug]
      #100938 - Thu May 14 2020 06:09 PM

15/8/4 for me.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: doug]
      #100941 - Thu May 14 2020 06:45 PM

Hello again my friends. 2020 hasn't been kind so:

21/10/7

Why not?

D!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: doug]
      #100942 - Fri May 15 2020 08:03 AM

19/10/4 ENSO neutral again this year leaning possible La Nina by the end of the year should keep shear lower all summer / fall

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 106
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: craigm]
      #100944 - Sat May 16 2020 08:39 AM

Congratulations Bloodstar!!!


16/9/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
gsand
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: M.A.]
      #100948 - Sat May 16 2020 04:46 PM

16/7/3. Early start again this year but looks like shear will be around a while. Been a weird spring in many ways...

Congrats Bloodstar! Stay safe and healthy everyone.

--------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2020 Forecast- 16/7/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
EMS
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 49
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: gsand]
      #100951 - Tue May 19 2020 07:13 AM

18/9/6. Emerging La Niña plus warm Atlantic waters make for an extremely active season

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bob3d
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Pasco County, Florida
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: doug]
      #100952 - Thu May 21 2020 12:19 PM

13-19 / 6-10 / 3-6 according to NOAA.

Edited by bob3d (Thu May 21 2020 12:45 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
IMTechspec
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: Orlando
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: doug]
      #100953 - Mon May 25 2020 05:52 PM

I have a suspicion that we will be busy this year.

18 / 9 / 5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Valandil
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Hamburg, Germany
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: IMTechspec]
      #100954 - Tue May 26 2020 11:12 AM

20/10/5

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100955 - Tue May 26 2020 03:34 PM

Gonna up the named total a couple to compensate for the early activity, and cut the mediocre canes down one due to shear:

17/8/4

Some models hint that another tropical storm will spin up in the GOMEX in early June. Sticking with 4 majors... "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger"..

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Tue May 26 2020 08:34 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BloodstarModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 458
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100969 - Fri May 29 2020 09:24 PM

Anyone else having urges to nudge their forecast totals up a little? =)

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
29/28/12/05
18/17/7/04


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 2020 prediction [Re: Bloodstar]
      #100972 - Sun May 31 2020 07:36 PM

Happy 2020 Hurricane Season, all. Hope it's a safe one!

It appears I'm in good (or bad, depending) company. We all seem fairly well clustered. My forecast is based solely on a system I have used and refined for many years, and I had not seen the other forecasts above prior to posting just now.

My reaction upon seeing all of these similar numbers was a bit of concern for us being way off base. Too much consensus always leaves me wondering if maybe we have some group think going on. On the other hand, no doubt we are all seeing many of the same things - as is my system - which is mathematical, and only includes a modest allowance for personal opinion to be included.

My net forecast for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Named Storms: 19, Hurricanes: 10, Majors: 4

With a likely range of: Named Storms: 15-23, Hurricanes: 8-12, Majors: 3-5.

Above average risk of US landfalls from Texas all the way to New England, including an above average risk of at least one landfalling Major.

An interesting footnote: one potential caveat to the season forecast could be any effect/s from the result of greatly reduced contrails - something not easily modeled and with virtually no historical reference (other going way, way back, to when recorded season totals are much in doubt as it is). I am already curious if the below-average vertical instability present for months across the Atlantic basin is related to this. Besides, regardless of its cause, I am simply concerned that this subpar instability could result in my season forecast busting.

I am nonetheless expecting vertical instability to increase and perhaps even go above average by the time the bulk of the climatological season arrives, but as for my forecast this year, despite being in "good company" ... I am in good company, right guys? ;-) ... I would call this a low-confidence forecast, with a potential to bust by a wide margin on either side (low or high)

My final 2020 forecast: Named Storms: 19, Hurricanes: 10, Majors: 4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 14 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 5354

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center