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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Storm Forum

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed in Va]
      #87474 - Thu May 27 2010 02:19 PM

Hello Ed. Shouldn't that be NOAA and not NHC?

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________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #87475 - Thu May 27 2010 03:35 PM

Technically NOAA, but in colleration with the NHC and others
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed in Va]
      #87476 - Thu May 27 2010 05:19 PM

I updating my 2010 outlook.. bumping up slightly... based on the last 25 - 30 days of new data.

I had 22/18/9/5.... *** landfalling guess*** <14>

I'm going with 27/20/11/7 *** landfalling guess*** <17> (27 systems...20 storms...11... Hurricanes... 7 majors)

First storm name May 31 <?.

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 58
Loc: Waldo Florida
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87477 - Thu May 27 2010 11:38 PM

Wow, I thought my numbers were high.

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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4057
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: gsand]
      #87479 - Fri May 28 2010 07:57 AM

This year, 17/11/5

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jamesrainier
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87486 - Sat May 29 2010 05:10 AM

29 Named storms, 16 hurricanes, 7 Majors

based on record high SSTs, El Nino gone, Saharan dust down, and I'm hearing lower wind shear


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: jamesrainier]
      #87490 - Sat May 29 2010 06:39 PM

Well for what its worth, decided to add my 3 cents worth. Besides, given that the one closest to season accuracy will receive 1MILLION Dollars...........why not! ( wishful thinking )

As I see it, were seeing the typical shear that this time of year might bring. Though there is no doubt some "lag" effect from El Nino, I have no reason to think wer'e going to see an early season. So given that a first named system doesn't form until the first week of July, it just seems so improbable to find a way to predict 20+ systems reaching Tropical Storm intensity ( or greater ). That said, present day SST anomolies are quite obviously high ( for Eastern/Central Atlantic ). It remains to be seen if we're already seeing the near maximum Atlantic temps., more typically witnessed in August/September, or if a continued rise continues. If the current SST anomolies continue to outpace a typical warming that we would normally see over the next few months, and forecast upper level winds truly relax as much as forecast......, than those especially along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard had better hope for a long wave to camp out over or just east of the U.S. Seaboard. Only saving grace for the Gulf states, might be whatever unusually favorable conditions in the Eastern Atlantic, might just mean that many less waves sneaking undeveloped into the Western Caribbean and Gulf.

This all said, and assuming actualization of forecasted below average surface pressures across the tropical Atlantic, coupled with forecasted low shear, I'm gonna bet against "crazy" busy, and simply go with "crazy" bad instead.

My 2010 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone forecast is for 17 Named T.S., with a high percentage of 14 becoming hurricanes, and 7 of them being major ( Cat. 3 and above ). To really go out on a limb, am guessing that at least 4 hurricanes this year reach Cat. 4 or greater strength.

Honestly though, other than the poleward moving storms that would normally develop in the W. Caribbean in October, if we can slip by the next 30 days or so without the typically early threats to the Gulf....."how many" or how bad" may prove mostly irrelevent if most end up as fish spinners. Any insights that anyone else might have regarding long term set up of the Western Atlantic ridge and longwave would be of greater interest to me. I don't believe such forecast tools exist however, that might accurately foresee such indications beyond a few weeks.

To summerize, am guessing 17/14/7

Edited by weathernet (Sat May 29 2010 06:41 PM)


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Epicyear2010
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87491 - Sun May 30 2010 06:44 PM

Just joined the site. I enjoyed reading all of the analysis so far, but here is mine.

1.) Because of the rapid decline of el nino in the spring to a weak nina, there is more than likely lagging effects, hence the higher shear. Although, hurricane season is just starting. Shear should decrease as early as late june. An active July is looking likely at this point.

2.) Carribean, Gulf, and the Atlantic SST's are all above normal, and should continue to rise into july as more east coast ridges start forming.

3.) Into August and September, things looks extremely active. There will more than likely be an above average cape verde season and quite a few long trackers . Depending on the position of the high, the long trackers can travel anywhere from the carribean, to out to sea.

4.) Oil in the Gulf - Dont think this will impact hurricanes at all that pass through, although i have read that it may warm the waters more - which would of course "fuel" the hurricane even more.

FINAL FORECAST

18-21 named storms
14 hurricanes
8 major

5-8 landfalls ranging from Brownsville to Cape Cod


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tekkrite
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87492 - Sun May 30 2010 10:08 PM

My guess: 26 named, 15 hurricanes, 6 major. WAG only, based on what everyone else is basing theirs on.

Further even Wilder AG: 2 hurricanes landfalling FL east coast, 3 GA/SC/NC, 4 around the Gulf Coast, the rest spinning fish and tarballs.


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87496 - Mon May 31 2010 11:03 AM

26 / 17 / 7

I still see a lot of similarities to 2005

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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87499 - Mon May 31 2010 11:05 PM

This thread is now closed and we'll summarize the results at the end of the season. Thanks to all of you who participated.

Seasonal forecasts by various agencies:
WSI (5/25): 18/10/5
NOAA (5/27): 18/11/5 (averages)
CSU (6/2): 18/10/5
TSR (6/4): 18/10/4

ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jun 04 2010 01:26 PM)


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