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Archives 2000s >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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joe2226
Unregistered




Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st [Re: MikeC]
      #79801 - Thu May 01 2008 03:07 AM

hello, Would anybody happen to know the forecast of hurricanes that may hit central america and the caribbean ,2008 season? thanks for the info.

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the user
Unregistered




Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st [Re: Unregistered User]
      #79802 - Thu May 01 2008 08:13 AM

Quote:

hello, Would anybody happen to know the forecast of hurricanes that may hit central america and the caribbean ,2008 season? thanks for the info.




impossible to tell. Although steering currents will be pointed storms more into the gulf and towards the north atlantic this year. As opposed to last year.


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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
Second Tropical Wave of Season [Re: Unregistered User]
      #79803 - Fri May 02 2008 04:47 PM

We now have the second tropical wave off Africa. Satellite image and info below.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N10W 2N20W EQUATOR AT 34W THEN
1N43W INTO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N TO 9N EAST OF 20W TO THE
AFRICAN COAST. A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA ALONG
15W/16W ON THE 12Z SFC MAP. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V-PATTERN. THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM
ALSO INDICATES THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM DURING LAST
TWO DAYS...AND THE BAMAKO SOUNDING SHOWED THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH/WAVE BETWEEN APRIL 30 AND MAY 1ST. BASED ON THIS DATA AND
THE TIME OF THE YEAR...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE INTRODUCED ON THE
18Z MAP.

(old image link removed~danielw)

Edited by danielw (Sun May 25 2008 09:42 PM)


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The user
Unregistered




Re: Second Tropical Wave of Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #79804 - Fri May 02 2008 08:46 PM

Quote:

We now have the second tropical wave off Africa. Satellite image and info below.




Well probably nothing will come of it out there. Possibily if it breaks off into the gulf in 2 weeks it may spin up a LLC similiar to alberto or barry which would bring it into a good time frame, . Its kind of rare to see full waves roll off africa so soon.

Edited by danielw (Mon May 12 2008 12:11 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
retirements? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #79808 - Sat May 10 2008 10:12 AM

Went google searching earlier because I was surprised that there hasn't been an official name retirement announcement for last year's list; usually we find out in April and we're well into May. NHC hasn't updated their storm name list, but according to sources over at S2K (not offficial, but I believe them), there were three names knocked off last year's list (which is due up again in 2013). Dean is out, Felix is out... no suprises there. Noel was iffier because it did all it's mayhem as a tropical storm, but it out also. The new entries are Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor. The active span we've been in for the last dozen years or so has really eaten away at the original set of names, at least in the first half of the alphabet.
HF 1512z10may


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: retirements? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #79812 - Mon May 12 2008 10:11 PM

Interesting... Looks like they are doing some kind of test run. They just issued an advisory dated 9/13/08 for "Ophelia" with tropical storm warnings and hurricane warnings for South and North Carolina. You can see it on the main page listed under "Noel".

TROPICAL STORM Ophelia FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z TUE SEP 13 2008

Bill

Edited by BillD (Mon May 12 2008 10:13 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: retirements? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #79813 - Wed May 14 2008 03:20 PM

here ya go hank... they posted it online now:

Dean, Felix, and Noel Retired From List of Storm Names
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080513_stormnames.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: retirements? [Re: BillD]
      #79814 - Wed May 14 2008 05:05 PM

NOW THAT WOULD BE WEIRD IF OPHELIA FORMED ON THAT DATE.

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poopface29
Unregistered




Re: retirements? [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #79815 - Wed May 14 2008 06:36 PM

Quote:

NOW THAT WOULD BE WEIRD IF OPHELIA FORMED ON THAT DATE.




They wont be using Ophelia this year. Omar will takes its place.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
fun with models [Re: Unregistered User]
      #79818 - Sun May 18 2008 09:15 AM

The GFS keeps coughing and nudging everybody's collective side with a northward-moving west-Caribbean sort of feature at the end of the month. I'm starting to pay attention, since run after run it keeps showing up. It might be some sort of MJO-induced flareup... haven't looked into that, but know the Indian ocean cyclone at month's beginning and subsequent Westpac activity has been that sort of thing.
Always have to be suspicious about things the models show trying to emerge in that neck of the woods, since oftentimes they tend to get shoved westward into the Pacific... or just sorta wallow over Central America and never organize. GFS has been surprisingly adamant about something trying to be there, though; starting around Memorial Day something might try to cook off.
HF 1415z18may


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: fun with models [Re: HanKFranK]
      #79821 - Mon May 19 2008 10:54 PM

Fun with models... reminds me that I need to see what changes they have introduced to the Tropical Models this year. Nearly always have a tweak or two here and there.
Model Updates

Most of the folks around the Atlantic and GOM coasts and beaches will probably have a 3 day weekend and Barbeque on their mind and not much else.

The Florida Hurricane Season Sales Tax Holiday has been eliminated this year.
Sales Tax Holiday Eliminated

Edited by danielw (Mon May 19 2008 10:59 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: fun with models [Re: danielw]
      #79822 - Mon May 19 2008 11:27 PM

FXUS06 KWBC 191905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 27 - JUN 02, 2008:

...A DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH. DRIER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BUT HIGH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR FLORIDA. OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
IN ALASKA.
(emphasis added~danielw)

Current NCEP HPC Discussions


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #79823 - Tue May 20 2008 02:36 PM

hmm... i seen the 12Z NAM and GFS want to bring up some tropical airmass into the northern GOM in the next few days... MUCH NEED RAIN would be nice.... come out of bay of campeche and moves NE toward the NE gulf coast....

54hr NAM 12Z 5/20/08

(post moved to existing discussion.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue May 20 2008 06:13 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #79825 - Wed May 21 2008 12:43 AM

nice 18Z package.... if it holds, i could see a LOT of rain thurs/fri. MUCH NEEDED rain... although this looks like it may cause problems if that cutoff low coming out of the mx.. hits this sub-tropical jet.... we may get soaked bad....??? (heck.... one year ago... it was hot as hell from the High pressure over head... and all the forest fires.... what a difference a yr makes....)


*** side not... long range models are getting a little jumpy... especially around the first of the month....***

I was thinking we may have something to talk about on the holiday weekend

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed May 21 2008 12:43 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #79831 - Thu May 22 2008 11:52 AM

NOAA Predicts Near Normal or Above Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080522_hurricaneoutlook.html


Full report

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st [Re: MikeC]
      #79832 - Thu May 22 2008 01:34 PM


I have placed a header on the main page that contains a link to NOAA's tropical prediction/assessment for this 2008 season, for those who are interested.

~Tip


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #79851 - Sun May 25 2008 01:41 PM

GFS won't let the idea go......12Z run this morning puts a 997mb low smack dab in the middle of the Gulf on the morning of the 4th. It's persistent, but I am obviously skeptical.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #79856 - Sun May 25 2008 09:25 PM

Quote:

GFS won't let the idea go......12Z run this morning puts a 997mb low smack dab in the middle of the Gulf on the morning of the 4th. It's persistent, but I am obviously skeptical.




Persistant or consistant. The GFS has now been joined by the CMC (Canadian) and ECMWF (Euro. Med Range Model). Looks like a train of models are onto something... repeat something.

Here is the last paragraph from today's Extended Forecast Discussion from HPC .
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
211 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008

VALID 12Z WED MAY 28 2008 - 12Z SUN JUN 01 2008

...CMC/ECMWF/GFS ALL CONT THEIR PERSISTENT TREND TOWARDS TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR YUCATAN MID PERIOD AS MODELS BUILD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WITH LOW WIND SHEAR OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/WEST CARRIBEAN.
HPC POSITIONING IS A MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN LOCATIONAL AND PRESSURE
AVERAGE.

And From NWS Slidell,LA
Sunday Afternoon AFD~time sensitive
...THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC CONTINUE A PERSISTENT
TREND OF FORECASTING SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE AREA
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF DEVELOPMENT
WOULD OCCUR...OR WHERE ANY SYSTEM WOULD END UP GOING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REFER TO HPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE
DETAILS. FOR OUR WEATHER...IT LOOKS IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM TO HOT NEXT WEEKEND. 22


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