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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Elaine H
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 21
Re: Rule & Jason [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #26848 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:41 PM

Right you are Guppie...we are all very edgy in central FL...hence the run on plywood and fuel...then there is the thought that none of us wants it to land anywhere, but there is the inevitable....

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TampaDon
Unregistered




Re: Rule & Jason [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #26849 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:43 PM

"Once again...the official forecast track has been shifted a
little to the west...and is in best agreement with the latest GFDL
and GFS solutions. The latest FSU superensemble run is only
slightly to the west of the NHC track."

How can they shift it to the west even more when everytjhing I see points to a more eastward track?


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Here is the key statement in the 11:00pm [Re: Terra]
      #26850 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:43 PM

The consensus of the dynamical track prediction models shows a northwestward to north-northwestward motion followed by a turn to the north as the hurricane moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Ivan will continue to go somewhat to the west heading around 325 degrees... and the NE turn will NOT occur until close to landfall.... WOW

88.5 is south of Pascagoula I think.....

Edited by Frank P (Mon Sep 13 2004 10:46 PM)


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unknown
Unregistered




Re: Rule & Jason [Re: scottsvb]
      #26851 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:44 PM

I agree with you scottsvb I just think I have been reading this stuff too much today, seems that there are few who want this thing in Tampa and hope they are right. I don't want it to come here at alll. Hurricanes are NOT FUN

Where are you? We know you don't want it "there" but where is that? Thanks!

Edited by LI Phil (Mon Sep 13 2004 10:45 PM)


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unknown
Unregistered




Re: Rule & Jason [Re: unknown]
      #26853 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:47 PM

Is Tampa near Missippi?

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dani
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
Re: Here's the Beef [Re: danielw]
      #26854 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:48 PM

Okay, so I'm a tad confused. What is causing the sudden change for landfall farther west towards New Orleans? Is the trough farther west than expected or what could be a better reason for the ms/la expected landfall.

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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Unknown
Unregistered




Re: Rule & Jason [Re: unknown]
      #26856 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:49 PM

Gulf Breeze, Panhandle Florida south of Pensacola

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NEW THREAD! [Re: dani]
      #26857 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:50 PM

Mike just put up a new thread...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Rule & Jason [Re: unknown]
      #26858 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:50 PM

Yes, but far away from Mississippi <joking>

Actually, looking at the strike probabilities, Texas, Port Arthur, is at 10% now


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Rule & Jason [Re: TampaDon]
      #26859 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:50 PM

I would have never expected Ivan to get past 88 degrees period... 120K too geesh.... boy, what changes will we see at the 5 am advisory... posted earlier most of the models were left of the forecast... gee they actually went with them this time

FSU SE is also slightly west of forecast track, wonder what's its targeting...

the GOM, continuing its tradition as being the grave yard of busted forecasts... the saga continues tomorrow....


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rd522525
Unregistered




Re: Rule & Jason [Re: TampaDon]
      #26860 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:51 PM

funny you say that on another board derek ortt writes:we have shifted back to the right as we may have had some bad 12Z upper air obs that went into the 12Z forecast

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html


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peggyone
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: St. Pete Beach
Re: Rule & Jason [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #26862 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:53 PM

okay I know I am new but please sombody tell me where you can possibly see it threatining the TB area. I live on a tiny island off the southern most part of Pass- A -Grill. We are talking major coastal damage as well as maybe a new inlet with any surge. I thought we were in the clear?

--------------------
"There are lies and then there are statistics where are you ?"


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
New ETA [Re: unknown]
      #26863 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:53 PM

I think we are seeing the results of the change in track being reflected in the ETA, anyway. 18Z took Ivan right over New Orleans, now it looks to have shifted at least 50 miles east.
That trof looks like it is still strong, and is still digging. NNW may continue longer than expected, just like wnw did.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1114
Loc: fl
Re: Here's the Beef [Re: dani]
      #26865 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:53 PM

As i posted many times the runs of the 18Z,,which are 2pm are used for the 11pm update here. The dont have the oz run which is 8pm to give out and when they do it will be at the 5am update. Also the Bamn models that you will see at 6z and 2am eastern will be run offs of the GFS run tonight at 0Z. So movement tonight into tomorrow and 0z runs will be key.

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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.64N 88.22W
Re: Rule & Jason [Re: LI Phil]
      #26876 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:15 PM Attachment (291 downloads)

I really didn't want to echo Rick, but the news tonight has been my thought all week.(I won't go into the thing with my mother's headstone again !) Yeah LI Phil, I read it the same way you did. Cat 4/5 Mobile Bay.
I put an attachment that I got this morning, I deleted the source cuz I'm not sure I was supposed to share it. Even though it came out at 9 am today, it appears to be right on the money !


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: NEW THREAD [Re: mbfly]
      #26882 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:22 PM

New thread up at 10 pm

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: Folks....a personal request.... [Re: wxman007]
      #26937 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:30 AM

Best Wishes, hugs and prayers comin y'all's way from Texas

'shana


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chuck325
Unregistered




Re: To Frank P [Re: Frank P]
      #26962 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:36 AM

Well you said if it hit Mobile us in Pensacola would get the crap knocked out of us..Does this seem to be happening or is there a chance it can still make landfall east of us.

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willy
Unregistered




Re: NEW THREAD [Re: danielw]
      #26982 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:19 AM

Live in Lapalce,La. Taking off work today to board up my house and my daughters. I have been keeping an eye on Ivan and I don't like the looks of things.Still to early to tell but as I posted about 4 days ago I have a bad feeling about Ivan.I think everyone here in the New Orleans area is taking this thing serious as we all should..The weather here is overcast and spotty showers.If you look at the clouds they are moving to the NW. Some voluntary evacuations,and mandatory evacuations are taking place in different parishes around the area.So we are taking things seriously.Will probablly leave this afternoon and go towards Houston if it is still coming this way. I have heard that all motels are reserved as far north as Jackson Miss. Everone take this Storm "serious" because this is nothing to mess with.Best of luck to anyone in it's path.

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