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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Latest Vortex...910mb!!!! [Re: LI Phil]
      #26597 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:18 PM

662
URNT12 KNHC 132053
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/2053Z
B. 21 DEG 15 MIN N
84 DEG 51 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2277 M
D. 75 KT
E. 138 DEG 70 NM
F. 224 DEG 139 KT
G. 133 DEG 018 NM
H. 910 MB
I. 14 C/ 3110 M
J. 18 C/ 3106 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF980 3109A Ivan OB 20
MAX FL WIND 150 KT NE QUAD 1916Z.

One more mb and Ivan breaks his own record....
For a bit this afternoon, it appeared that the strong convection on the north eyewall was waning. Recent IR shots show it to be building back in. Could he grow even stronger this evening? (This is getting to be a daily evening habit with Ivan).

--Lou


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!! [Re: recmod]
      #26598 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:20 PM

Discussion finally out!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html

Whew, Stewart is good! He answered every single question out there and then some. Genius, just genius.

Edited by ShaggyDude (Mon Sep 13 2004 05:24 PM)


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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: jth]
      #26599 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:21 PM

If anyone wants to verify the monster we have out there...

Camille was a "hundred year storm".... pressure of 908
lowest recorded on Atlantic side...Gilbert... 888

we have a widow maker out there...


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: rickonboat]
      #26600 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:23 PM

That discussion says it all...godspeed all!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!! [Re: recmod]
      #26601 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:26 PM

He's only teasing LIPhil and the magic 900mb range....

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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: LI Phil]
      #26602 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:27 PM

Hopefully this will weaken more than forcast. I cant inagine a 5 hitting anywhere.

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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!! [Re: Frank P]
      #26603 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:27 PM

anyway some one can post the spagetti links page- por favor

spaghetti

BTW, most of the info you are seeking can be found in Mike's title thread...just scroll down..

--------------------
Kelly


Edited by LI Phil (Mon Sep 13 2004 05:30 PM)


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ddrehman
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: GaryC]
      #26605 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:28 PM

Hello, I am new to all of this and I was wiondering if someone could explain what the discussion means in laymens terms. I live In Central Florida are we safe now? Thank you.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!! [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #26606 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:28 PM

Stewart is a genius, and reminds me of a prior NHC legend-Dr. Neil Franks (I think?)
I also think this board had those issues covered well, as a number of us were seeing the synoptic scale pattern the same way, but a pro like him really teaches you something. Now, we have a road map of what to follow, and learn something while its happening.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: Unregistered User]
      #26607 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:29 PM

Right, Scott...that's what one of our local mets just said. The reason the forecast track hasn't shifted more east is because they are using the old ones.

He just said (this minute) that based on the info the recon planes are giving back, two of the models have the new "north" motion in it and they have shifted it to the right: the UKMET and the CMC. These are new runs, not the old ones.

He said this northward motion may just be a trend, but based on what his face is telling me, he doesn't believe it.

11pm will tell the tale.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: GaryC]
      #26608 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:30 PM

"Despite the large
eye of 25-30 nmi...the pressure has continued to fall. ...some
additional slight strengthening of 5 kt or so could occur later
tonight"...

wow!!!!

This is quite frightening, really. Pucker up time...


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!! [Re: kelcot]
      #26609 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:33 PM

thanks for the info, pal
Is it just me, or does Ivan seem to be defing (SP?) all of the rules for hurricanes?

--------------------
Kelly


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: rickonboat]
      #26610 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:34 PM

It was quite a funny running joke while it lasted...

now you better get outta the way!

Be safe...again...no way to take your boat out of the water...or is it safer to keep it in the bay and hope for the best?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: ddrehman]
      #26611 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:34 PM

dd, there is an upper level low which is not easily visible on most sat pics or surface maps that is directly responsible for shifting the track from the wnw to nnw. That low is moving away slowly, and as it does, will gradually lose its influence on Ivan, therefore, it should start to move NW again instead of NNW. There is another one coming though, and this SHOULD cause even more of a turn to the right. Also, in the Gulf, the upper level winds are from the west or southwest, so as it gains latitude, that will also bend its track back. That will also create some shear-stronger winds in a direction that can hurt the convection's organization, and that is why they expect it to weaken a little. As for forecasting where it should land, I don't want to do it, because I am afraid too much credence might be given to an amateur's view, and I don't want to scare anyone. If this were landfalling in another part of the country, maybe I'd be a little less reluctant to do so.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: MrSpock]
      #26612 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:38 PM

colleen which met said that,,what channel?

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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: MrSpock]
      #26613 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:38 PM

My boat is way to big to get out of the water...a friend of mine moved his up the river. I chose to stay...

He had 600' of extra line to tie to trees and also anchor..then he will abandon the boat and see what's left.

If a strong 4 or 5 hits our marina...it's quite likely nothing will be left. We are surrounded by huge oak trees...but the fact remains...the boat will likely be a total loss.

I will, of course, NOT be on it...


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: rickonboat]
      #26614 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:42 PM

Rick- if Ivan maintains himself as a cat V at landfall, you will be able to drive your boat here to ATL to visit me......

I'm still calling a PCB landfall give or take 50 miles. However, based on the qualifiactions that I have for landfall, Mobile, Pascagoula, and Gulf Shores don't look to good either. Sorry, all.

--------------------
Kelly


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: MrSpock]
      #26615 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:42 PM

What we should watch out for in Central/west Florida is 1) the NW course resumes and 2) that as the shortwave moves off to the NE, that any ridging that replaces the exiting trough has enuf umph to steer it north and continue the 8 knt motion. Often the steering currents become weak when there is a handover from ridge/trough/ridge. We shall see, but the west coast of Florida does not want to see him slow or stall; just keep moving, and hopefully weaken considerably before landfall in the panhandle. Still without power in Palm Bay, day 9. Watching Ivan and Possible Jean. More fun.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: rickonboat]
      #26616 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:42 PM

I was watching The Perfect Storm (for the 800th time) last night and I was actually picturing you trying to ride it out...

Glad you're taking the safe route! Peace.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: rickonboat]
      #26617 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:43 PM

rick on a boat,
It was just a week or so ago that we were ragging on you for your trying to get Frances into the gulf.

I think you have the right attitude. Secure the boat as best you can and then hope for the best.
Sometimes boats fare better than you would think.

Good luck and stay safe.


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