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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Liz L.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
Re: Florida in the crosshairs - again! [Re: Ricreig]
      #30103 - Thu Sep 23 2004 08:30 AM

I found this site VIa two local Dj's here in central florida, Doc and Johnny from XL106.7, i am glad they shared this. ITs great you guys do a awesome job and come here before i go to any other site. I love to see everyones opinion and thoughts. Keep up the great work. and as long as i can access the net i will frequent this site. great job again all keep it up!

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Florida in the crosshairs - again! [Re: Ricreig]
      #30104 - Thu Sep 23 2004 08:33 AM

I have a question that is kind of important. I have little access to news where I work. But, I can take some time at lunch time to check the site. Does any one have a good guess as to when we in Florida will know a good time line on this storm, the angle of approach, and the size of the hurricane force winds Vs the tropical storm force ones. There was talk last night of the storm being annular and I am referring to the storm's intensity being greater than the appearance of the satellite signature. This has a lot to do with when I start making waves at work about preparations. We live in-land of course which means that every one tries to wait til the last minute to avoid unnecessary expenditures. Thanks a bunch.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Florida in the crosshairs - again! [Re: Liz L.]
      #30105 - Thu Sep 23 2004 08:34 AM

Ug from me as well since I live in Titusville which is up the road from M-bourne.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Watch and wait debate! [Re: Liz L.]
      #30106 - Thu Sep 23 2004 08:34 AM

Most we can do today is watch and wait. Watch carefully.

Not sure the situation is totally set in stone and there aren't more surprises to come down the line.. whichever way the line is.

Can see on wv where it would/could take a turn off shore. However ..not sold on it. Don't think anyone is sold. Think we should window shop somemore and wait and see at 11 if she has moved at all.

bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Ivy
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: Allison]
      #30107 - Thu Sep 23 2004 08:36 AM

We are supposed to get rain from Ivan also. Just waiting on the storm...

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Florida in the crosshairs - again! [Re: Liz L.]
      #30108 - Thu Sep 23 2004 08:36 AM

Quote:

I found this site VIa two local Dj's here in central florida, Doc and Johnny from XL106.7, i am glad they shared this. ITs great you guys do a awesome job and come here before i go to any other site. I love to see everyones opinion and thoughts. Keep up the great work. and as long as i can access the net i will frequent this site. great job again all keep it up!


I'm just holding down the fort until the really heavy-hitters like Clark and HankFrank and the others that are truly better educated in tropical weather than I will ever be get here. I'm an old fart with some hopefully useful experience and I hope, a little common sense to pass on to those that need or want it. Thanks

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 08:54 AM)


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Florida in the crosshairs - again! [Re: Liz L.]
      #30109 - Thu Sep 23 2004 08:39 AM

Quote:

I found this site VIa two local Dj's here in central florida, Doc and Johnny from XL106.7, i am glad they shared this. ITs great you guys do a awesome job and come here before i go to any other site. I love to see everyones opinion and thoughts. Keep up the great work. and as long as i can access the net i will frequent this site. great job again all keep it up!


I'm glad they did too. Hey, give 'em a call and tell them what you think of their suggestion and if you feel so inclined, ask them to mention this site again. It could save a life you know.....

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Florida in the crosshairs - again! [Re: Ricreig]
      #30110 - Thu Sep 23 2004 08:40 AM

Ric add this to your list of helpful ideas during a storm. Have a portable fridge which can be powered by a 12 volt battery or plug in to your vehicle as well....................especially if anyone has small children and needs to keep milk on hand.

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Florida in the crosshairs - again! [Re: Redbird]
      #30111 - Thu Sep 23 2004 08:50 AM

I'm not sold yet on this track....she is not moving..at all. I believve the GFS was showing her stationary for a while, then moving her west, and on the 6z run still has her near Ft. Lauderdale then up the coast. But the reality is, she has not moved. THis is very good for Florida, as it buys time. The bad news is the ridge doesn't appear to be going anywhere fast, which means she could strengthen quite a bit when west of 72W. Have a feeling that people will be scurrying this way and that up and down the east coast of Florida until she goes out to sea, hopefully not hitting anywhere. Time will tell.....but she may be one fickle B*%&$%. Cheers!!

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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Re: preparations [Re: Redbird]
      #30112 - Thu Sep 23 2004 08:50 AM

During the days days we went w/o power for Frances, we plugged our big fridge into our generator. Of course, we couldn't run much else... just 2 fans and a light, but it was nice to have cold sodas, cream for my coffee, and cheese on my burger. Also HIGHLY recommend a camp stove so you can heat water, soup, pan cook, etc.

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Florida in the crosshairs - again! [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #30113 - Thu Sep 23 2004 08:52 AM

Quote:

I have a question that is kind of important. ... Does any one have a good guess as to when we in Florida will know a good time line on this storm.


I think this is best answered like this.... I can pretty well guarantee my forecast for the next 10-30 minutes will be accurate. I have no clue about next year this time. Translation, the further into the future you forecast, the more likely it is a WAG or maybe an EWAG and therefore stands a good chance of being inaccurate. So, given the forecast affects us in just about 3 days, the forecast is getting more accurate. Also given that the turn to the north is from 3-5 days, it is much less certain and likely to be wrong. However, it takes time to make and implement our plans so bhe best thing you can do is pretend the forecast you have is gospel and pray it isn't as bad as it seems. Time restraints dictate that.

WIth that said, Tonight we probably know much more accurately than we do right now and by tomorrow morning, it could be relatively accurate, maybe 50-100 miles, maybe less. Remember Charley; As recently as 5-6 hours before landfall, the forecast was wrong 50-100 miles, but at least, those that were in the cone of uncertainty were 'sort of' expecting it. Just always remember, landfall isn't a point because the hurricane isn't a point. It affects a large area. Sneak in a look-see on this board as often as you can, make plans early and ACT on them as if your life depended on it and most important of all, get authoritative, official information above all and do what they say. We pay them big-bucks in taxes to work for us and be the experts.

I know it's not the answer (as in what time tonight will we know), but it is hopefully a good answer.

P.S. WAG - Wild A$$ed Guess and the E means Educated

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: preparations [Re: cjzydeco]
      #30114 - Thu Sep 23 2004 08:53 AM

Ummm how do you attach a quote from a different thread on here to this one? Im half asleep and cant find it.

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Florida in the crosshairs - again! [Re: Redbird]
      #30115 - Thu Sep 23 2004 08:55 AM

Quote:

Ric add this to your list of helpful ideas during a storm. Have a portable fridge which can be powered by a 12 volt battery or plug in to your vehicle as well....................especially if anyone has small children and needs to keep milk on hand.


...and when not doing hurricane duty, can hold the beer next to your couch while watching football...saves a trip

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: preparations [Re: scottsvb]
      #30116 - Thu Sep 23 2004 09:00 AM

Quote:

Ummm how do you attach a quote from a different thread on here to this one? Im half asleep and cant find it.


Select the 'quote' from the area below where the emoticons are, then copy and paste between the result quote quote with what you want us to see quoted

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Re: Florida in the crosshairs - again! [Re: Ricreig]
      #30117 - Thu Sep 23 2004 09:07 AM

Why the two different plots? Does the Navy usually put out their own unique forecast that differs from the NHC?

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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
Re: Ivan [Re: jth]
      #30118 - Thu Sep 23 2004 09:11 AM

How valid is this as a possibility (Ivan-ovitch) may possibly become Ivan III ??? Aren't there rules against this kind of travesty.
As a Central Floridian, I am feeling the jitters from the Jeanne threat. We lost power/water for 4 days with Charley and 5 days with Francis, and still have 28 chopped up trees awaiting a pickup that will no doubt be postponed until after Hurricane Season. Moving to Montana.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Florida in the crosshairs - again! [Re: cjzydeco]
      #30119 - Thu Sep 23 2004 09:11 AM

Quote:

Why the two different plots? Does the Navy usually put out their own unique forecast that differs from the NHC?


I really can't answer that but the NRL was really late posting it and just maybe their plot was based upon slightly more recent data than the one release by the NHC. Another WAG without the E, I'm afraid.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Florida in the crosshairs - again! [Re: cjzydeco]
      #30120 - Thu Sep 23 2004 09:12 AM

Just a general question for you all. I haven't had time yet this morning to do some searching online regarding Jeanne and her new track towards FL.

I am leaving for Chicago in the morning and returning on Sunday at 2. Is there any chance I might get caught up in this storm on my return flight as we land? I was just curious if I should try to get an earlier flight or a later flight. Or, if I should just wait it out another day in Chicago? My biggest concern would be travelling with my little girl from the airport home in bad weather. Any suggestions would be most helpful!

__________________

Katie


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Mandeville, LA
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: Fletch]
      #30121 - Thu Sep 23 2004 09:18 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Count me in on the up late up early checking on the storm disease.
My girlfriend just told me I've been obcessed with these storms for two months now.
I'm in FLorida ... DAH......??




My wife thinks I am on the PC with a girlfriend. I keep saying,"I just need to get the updates on the storms." 3 hours later I'm still online. At least my kids are geeting a great education on Tropical Weather.




I had to comment too.... My son is going to be three in November. He knows what a hurricane is from satellite and tracking maps etc. Last week, he saw me looking at Ivan and Jeanne online and asked where they were going. I said no one is sure yet. For Ivan, he pointed to Louisiana and said it was going there; and for Jeanne, he pointed to the north Atlantic and said it was going there. Not great with Ivan, and we're stil unsure on Jeanne... but, not bad forecasts from an almost three year old!

--------------------
Terra M. Dassau, Ph.D.
(Chemistry, however, so don't think I'm an expert!)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
water vapor imagery [Re: Katie]
      #30122 - Thu Sep 23 2004 09:18 AM

Not convinced she isn't going to spin a bit. Looks like a possibility that the high is going to close in the narrow channel to her NW and she might get stuck there a bit.

Anyone know what the NOGAPS is based upon? Track of it staying west bound?

thanks in advance
bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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