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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 141
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: Fay reorganizing... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #82598 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:36 AM

we will be ok, Colleen, but thank you and God bless your kind heart. good night!

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 120
Re: Fay reorganizing... [Re: danielw]
      #82599 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:36 AM

Try this....

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Looks to me like a touch south of west; it should be obvious by morning if its going to hit the "pocket" around Crystal River. If so, that's not a good sign for people in the Panhandle and perhaps even NO (!) as it is significantly south of the current forecast track centerline.


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FloridaNative
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida (Lake Toho)
Re: Fay reorganizing... [Re: Genesis]
      #82600 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:41 AM

Looks to me like something is squishing this storm. Northern half looks like its being squashed as well as the COC.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Bad News Good News [Re: danielw]
      #82601 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:42 AM

Reading the latest Discussion on Fay. I caught this little bit of information.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND
SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED
BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS
THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IF
FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...AND SPENDS MORE
TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD BE AT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW.
IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/210300.shtml?text


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Fay reorganizing... [Re: Genesis]
      #82602 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:43 AM

That's not good news for the FL Panhandle/AL/MS or even possibly SE LA if it starts moving due West. I tell ya, this has been one crazy storm to track and it hasn't even reached Hurricane strength not even once. To think it could make 3 landfalls possibly in the same state is just crazy!

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Fay reorganizing... [Re: SirCane]
      #82603 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:51 AM

Big blow up of a lot of red on the latest frame of the AVN (around the 345 mark). Wow.

Family and friends of mine up the road in Northern Orlando who I've spoken to in the past hour have said that currently they are getting their worst weather yet.


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Fay reorganizing... [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #82605 - Thu Aug 21 2008 01:09 AM

Wierd,

Currently Fort Myers is getting an outer band of Fay??

I thought she was gone?

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=USFL0152

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Fay reorganizing... [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #82608 - Thu Aug 21 2008 01:52 AM

recon just went through at 05:38:00Z... and looks like the center fix may be near... 29.08N 80.63W with a pressure of 994-995mb... looks to me a slight north of west dirft? will see what vortex report comes in. The above location is about 15 miles from the coast. GPS dropsonde on the NE side still has winds around 50-55mph at and near the surface.

Correction... GPS dropsonde shows a 993mb reading at the surface... vortex report soon

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 21 2008 01:57 AM)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 384
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Fay reorganizing... [Re: SirCane]
      #82609 - Thu Aug 21 2008 03:46 AM

There is nothing unusual about the Fay's movement. The calendar and climatology play a big role given the time of year it is right now. Faye's current location and what that synoptic pattern is gives Faye's steering component. We all watched yesterday as Faye strengthened over land but given this is Florida - GOM on one side, the Atlantic on the other, Lake Okechobee and the Everglades and a very, very favorable upper level environment conducive to strengthening if she remains over open water for any length of time and you have a recipe of a sustained tropical cyclone like Faye. We all have to remember Faye did not become a hurricane and did not have a developed inner core that is traditional with hurricanes, thus for the most part she's remained in somewhat a steady state of development with some weakening and some strengthening. The big question that lies ahead in a few days is whether the upper air ridge over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic will build enough to push Fay into the Gulf of Mexico further south than currently projected and what will be left of her if she emerges over open water.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Re: Fay reorganizing... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82610 - Thu Aug 21 2008 03:55 AM

There appears to be a southwest motion to Fay. Is this a trend... time will tell.

5:38:10Z 29°05'N 80°38'W (29.08N 80.63W)
6:57:20Z 29°03'N 80°41'W (29.05N 80.68W)


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 06:02Z
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 5:38:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°05'N 80°38'W (29.08N 80.63W)
B. Center Fix Location: 26 miles (42 km) to the ESE (110°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,367m (4,485ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the NNE (25°) of center fix


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 07:07Z
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 6:57:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°03'N 80°41'W (29.05N 80.68W)
B. Center Fix Location: 24 miles (39 km) to the ESE (117°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the SE (127°) of center fix


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 302
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Fay reorganizing... [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #82611 - Thu Aug 21 2008 05:31 AM

This is the worst of the weather yet in the Wekiva area of Seminole county. Winds are gusting and we are getting plenty of rain. Seminole schools are open today, ironically. NWS radara out of Melbourne has her looking a little ragged on the northern most quadrant right now, but I wonder if that is bad reflectivity. Has she made a move yet west? When?.

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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: Fay reorganizing... [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #82615 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:25 AM

A nice day so far here in Tampa. Do you get the feeling that Fay might just be with us FOREVER!

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