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MikeCAdministrator
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Shear vs Ida
      #87213 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:53 AM

6:40AM EST Tuesday 10 November 2009 Update
Ida's energy is over land along with a tail to the east. Most of the rain is over Alabama, a bit west, and a large area of Georgia (Including Atlanta, unfortunately). For some areas where the energy from Ida crosses over, you will
have flooding.



Although there may be some rain across Florida related to this, it won't be all that much.

Ida's center of circulation is still offshore, but is "naked" with no convection to speak of. Shear pulled it north and east away from it, and it may never make landfall as a tropical storm.

It was an extremely complex forecast having to do with intensity and timing, which the NHC admits on its own it still isn't good at. The track forecast itself was still pretty good, just the strength and timing.

With Ida near an end, another system in the Central Atlantic has 10-30% chance of development, and most likely will not be a problem.


9:44PM EST Monday 9 November 2009 Update
Radar and Aircraft positions aren't really matching up anymore, so it looks like Ida has decoupled. It's got the appearance of a front developing to its southwest, and the band shooting across Florida and to the south. Landfall around Mobile (maybe a bit east) is possible with one possible center. The other is further west or not at all (Se of Louisiana).

Outside of Ida, believe it or not, another area in the Central Atlantic has roughly 30% chance of development.

9:52AM EST Monday 9 November 2009 Update
Ida now a Tropical Storm, all Hurricane Warnings have been changed to Tropical Storm Warnings.

6:40AM EST Monday 9 November 2009 Update
Overnight Ida has been affected greatly by vertical shear and cooler water temperatures. The race between the shear/extratropical transition and landfall continues. It looks like the transition is winning now--there was a hint this was possible last night when recon found hail/lightning in the northern quadrant. The Hurricane Center is being very generous calling it a Hurricane at the 7AM EST advisory.

Judging by appearance it's likely that Ida will be a strong Tropical or Hybrid Storm at landfall maybe even decoupled from most of the convection, with a lot of hybrid storm tendencies, minor to moderate storm surge will be an issue near the landfall point and east. Along with the enhanced possibility for small short-lived tornadoes.

Because of the transition to extratropical, most to all of the worst weather may be well before landfall and mostly to the east and north.



For the rest of the Florida peninsula clouds from Ida will likely be overhead most of the day with the windy conditions, but there won't be much rain except in the Panhandle and Alabama.

It's mostly good news this morning, in the fact that most of the very strong winds will not reach the surface with the shear. The only real worry is some coastal flooding and spotty short lived tornadoes before landfall. The windy conditions may feel strong helped by the general gradient across a very large area.

The remnants of Ida will probably hang around as a front begins to move in, so the rest of Florida and parts of the southeast will probably seeing rain/wind from Ida's remains all week.

10PM EST Sunday 8 November 2009 Update
Hurricane Warnings now up from Pascagoula, MI Eastward to Indian Pass, FL. Even though it will likely weaken, those in the area need to prepare for a possible Category 2 hurricane. Areas near the landfall point and eastward will see the worst from the system.

Tropical Storm warnings are up for areas just either side of the Hurricane Warning Area.

Any landfall is likely Tuesday morning, it is forecast to be a hurricane at landfall. If the NHC's current track were to verify it would be very near Pensacola, but there is a fair degree of uncertainty either way.

4PM EST Sunday 8 November 2009 Update
Hurricane Ida has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane, and conditions may allow for it to strengthen a bit more until tomorrow. The current forecast track puts it close to the Florida/Albama border as a strong tropical storm or low end hurricane (possibly hybrid) Tuesday morning. This is accelerated from what was discussed previously as Ida is moving faster than forecast earlier. It will be a race of sorts between Ida's current structure, the cooler water in the central/northern gulf and the extratropical transition which may not happen now until it gets very close to landfall



Because of this Hurricane Watches are up east of Grand Isle, LA all the way east to Mexico Beach in the Florida Panhandle. I wouldn't focus too much on the landfall point, because it is transitioning to Extra tropical affects could be felt quite far to the east of the general landfall area as well, mostly coastal Flooding and winds.

There is already a strong gradient wind across the Florida peninsula that right now has little to do with Ida.

Those in the watch area should take precautions for an approaching hurricane and consult local media and officials. The rest of those in the Cone should continue to monitor Ida very closely.

Ida has killed roughly 91 people in El Salvador from the flooding rains.

Mark Sudduth and Mike Watkins will be in the Ida landfall area and are live streaming video currently over at Hurricane Track.com.
Direct Ida coverage link.

What are conditions in your area related to Ida? Let us know here
Have a guess, long range model analysis, or thought about where Ida will be going, let us know in the lounge.

10AM EST Sunday Update
AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THIS WATCH DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS.

Original Post
Ida is moving very close to Cancun and the tip of the Yucatan today, but looks like it will miss landfall to the east. Overnight, Ida was moving more northwest, but recently it seems to be turning more to the north this morning.



Ida remains a category 1 hurricane for now, as it enters the Gulf later today it will begin to see slilghtly more hostile conditions, that will get very hostile in 2 to 3 days. Around then Ida is expected to begin to transform into an Extra Tropical system, lacking pure Tropical Characteristics. It's a border condition that may prove out interesting for forecast and any warnings/watches that may be issued for the Gulf.

Based on the current forecast track the National Hurricane Center (NHC) may not issue typical tropical storm warnings, and leave it to local NWS offices to issue Gale and coastal Flood watches. This depends on how quickly Ida makes that transition.

The future for Ida is very cloudy, and the track may be adjusted east or west based on exactly where Ida moves, but when it does make the transition the wind field will expand enhancing wind across the Gulf. With this morning's track, affects to Florida will be minimal until Wednesday or Thursday. If it were to move further east, it may be more. But the system itself will remain west enough to keep it from being too bad. The pressure gradient already existing will keep it breezy in Florida, with or without Ida's influence.

Those in the Central And eastern Gulf need to keep a close watch on Ida this week. Especially those immediately on the coastline that have flooded with storms similar in the past.

Ida Related Links

Mark Sudduth and Mike Watkins will be in the Ida landfall area and are live streaming video currently over at Hurricane Track.com.
Direct Ida coverage link.


Emergency Management

FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Individual Florida County Emergency Management Websites

Webcams, Video, Audio
WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL
WMBB - Panama City Beach, FL
WEAR ABC 3 in Pensacola
NBC 15 / Mobile/Pensacola

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Alabama Beach Webcams
Phoenix All Suite Gulf Shores Webcam (With Radar) flhurricane recording


Cancun Radar Animation
Cancun Radar
Ida Storm Spotlight
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Ida Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ida


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ida (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ida (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ida

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ida
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ida -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

98L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

StormPulse Map


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: MikeC]
      #87215 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:11 AM

Imagine that. At 6 AM CST this morning most, if not all of the NWS Offices on the Northern Gulf Coast were Not expecting any Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch or Warning conditions to be met.

That's how fast things can change. Especially with Hurricane Ida.

Next RECON is due for an 18Z or 1 pm EST center fix.

Waiting on the Discussion... which is about 25 minutes delayed as of now. Hmm. Must be a lot of pre-Discussion discussion at NHC.

Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 08 2009 10:16 AM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: MikeC]
      #87216 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:16 AM

After looking at the discussion, I decided to get rid of this. Better for me not to open that can of worms at this time and see what happens. [If you didn't see what I had before, don't worry]

It will be interesting to see when the transition actually occurs and if Ida maintains Hurricane strength to landfall.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Sun Nov 08 2009 10:48 AM)


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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: Rasvar]
      #87217 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:25 AM

Hurricane force winds only extend out 15 miles from the center.Very small area of hurricane force winds.

this is NOT a large hurricane.


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rgd
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: MikeC]
      #87218 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:28 AM

To be fair mike you have the wrong track in the top that is the old track that did not have it hit shore.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/143914.shtml?3-daynl#contents

that is the true track and while it is not as bad for the state it is still the right map.

Edited by rgd (Sun Nov 08 2009 10:31 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: rgd]
      #87219 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:43 AM

You are correct. The track projection in the Main Page leadoff article was not dynamic, however the map on the left side of the screen does update automatically.
ED


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: Rasvar]
      #87220 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:49 AM

It appears that you area on the right track... if not dead on the track.

I saw the hand-off phrase at 6 AM this morning. And thought it odd. But at that time the models hadn't bumped the forward speed up.

Also appears that the NWS Offices were caught off guard by the NHC's hand off phrase. I basing my comment off of what was sent out in the Morning AFD's.

Here's another angle. Hypothetical situation here: Ida increases forward speed just enough to miss the turn... We could then have a landfalling Hurricane with ONLY the western side of the landfall area being warned. OOPS

I'll leave NOAA alone.

.. If you are reading this from a location west of Appalachcola,FL to Grand Isle or Houma, LA.
Please keep a close eye or ear on the weather.
This situation is changing... to some degree every 3 to 6 hours.
So pack a few things and think about what you will do if a HURRICANE Watch or Warning is issued later today or tomorrow.
.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: danielw]
      #87221 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:53 AM

Whoops, sorry Daniel. I did not know anyone was responding to what I wrote and I thought I might have been pushing the boundary by questioning the watch areas so somewhat self censored myself. I do agree with your cautions very much (as it agrees with what I originally had up)

It is interesting looking at the AFD for my area. They seem to be going with the GFS solution which pulls the energy away from the area to the north and west. I have to wonder what might be different if there was not an NHC hand off. Then again, everything could change again at 4:00PM.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Sun Nov 08 2009 11:03 AM)


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: rgd]
      #87222 - Sun Nov 08 2009 10:55 AM

Good Morning All. Good to be here. This is going right over Jack II and the newest oil/gas finds.

I've been watching Ida since Honduras. I just found out 5 minutes ago that it threatens LA.

It'll be interesting to see what SE LA does now. Cause they're still shell shocked from Gustav/Katrina
and SE LA is under a flood advisory not related to Ida.

" Must be a lot of pre-Discussion discussion at NHC."


Edited by mcgowanmc (Sun Nov 08 2009 11:00 AM)


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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Hurricane Ida Nearing Cancun, Bordering on Cat 2, Eyewall Replacement Cycle Underway ?? [Re: danielw]
      #87223 - Sun Nov 08 2009 11:02 AM

Good Morning All. It seems that Hurricane Ida is on a gradual intensification trend early this morning as it slowly approaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

A fairly recent radar image out of Cancun is now depicting an improving eyewall signature, with strong reflectivities in the NW semicircle and somewhat weaker convection beginning to wrap all the way around the hurricanes' eye, whereas earlier it was quite open towards the SE.



Continuously Updated Doppler Radar Loop from Cancun as Ida Approaches

And it's little wonder that Ida should continue to intensify, given that it is over very warm waters of the NW-ern Caribbean and shear is still light to nearly non-existant early this morning. It fact, the upper-level wind flow seems even more conducive that it was 12-24 hours ago. A recent analysis of the 200mb windflow even seems to suggest a light *anti-cyclonic* pattern over the western semicircle, apparently enhancing the convection on that side of the hurricane, if anything.



As Bloodstar was commenting yesterday just after reconnaissance arrived and discovered 90 mph surface winds and the central pressure lowering to 985mb ...
Quote:

Well, Recon just found 90MPH Surface winds and a 985 surface pressure so far. no vortex message, but I suspect the storm is doing some pretty impressive deepening overnight.



I was also speculating while Ida was still a tropical storm, on her possible eyewall evolution overnight ...
Quote:

In the short-term, and especially judging from the small, compact size of the storm, it's entirely possible Ida could intensify substantially during tonight's convective max cycle.

Especially if the inner-core convection comprising the eyewall is deep and sustained enough throughout the night to negate the light shear currently over the system and it manages to close off a complete eyewall. If that were the case, a high-end Cat 1 or low-end Cat 2 Hurricane is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities!



Here are a series of 4 separate microwave images of Ida as it intensified from (1) a tropical storm with a re-developing yet still open eyewall yesterday, to (4) a potent Cat 1 hurricane approaching Cancun this morning, and bordering on a Cat 2.

Note that the eyewall *did* close off (2) while re-intensifying to hurricane strength, yet during the wee hours of the morning, the eye opened again (3), as the inner circulation became elongated and the overall deep convection contracted substantially in the southern semicircle, as seen on animated infrared and water vapor satellite imagery at the time. Perhaps Ida was still being partially disrupted by the light shear over the system?

At any rate, a complete eyewall has re-developed as seen in (4) and deep convection appears to be on the rise again in the eyewall and elsewhere too, as indicated by all the bright red reflectivities.



It'll be interesting to watch as Ida approaches the tip of the Yucatan today and see if it has just a tad more strengthening up it's sleeve, as hinted in recent discussions from the NHC. The eyewall signature, as seen by doppler radar from Cancun appears to be improving at this time as well, with possible indications of an attempted eyewall replacement cycle underway, but that is sheer speculation on my part.

Edited by CoconutCandy (Sun Nov 08 2009 11:11 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: Rasvar]
      #87224 - Sun Nov 08 2009 11:03 AM

You make a good point. Since the exact time of transition or even the transition itself is unknown, it does not serve the interests of public safety to transfer responsibility to the local offices based on an assumed transition to extratropical with a system that is still forecasted to be of hurricane strength after that transition. It would be as silly as saying that future track forecast points beyond 10/00Z are not going to be the responsibility of NHC. At 10/00Z, while the system is still defined as tropical, the NHC forecasts TS force winds to extend 150 miles to the northeast. With that forecast, and if the track forecast doesn't change, a Tropical Storm Watch would be in order on the 3pm CST update (36 hours prior to the expected event) that would extend eastward to at least AQQ.

Everyone from Louisiana to north Florida needs to keep a close watch on Ida's track and associated weather.
ED

(edit-AQQ is Appalachicola,FL~danielw)

Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 08 2009 11:24 AM)


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87230 - Sun Nov 08 2009 12:29 PM

Recon finding Ida's pressure down several mb since the last center pass at 5am CST this morning.

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danielwAdministrator
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Vortex Preliminary data [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87231 - Sun Nov 08 2009 12:31 PM

I see a 974mb report from RECON and the wind speed appear to be in Category 1 range... still.

That pressure bothers me a bit as it gives a Max Possible Wind Speed of 1000-974=26+75= 101 mph.

The data that I'm seeing is closer to minimal Cat 1 Hurricane.

edit-actual vortex came in with a 978mb pressure so IDA is right at the Max Possible wind speed calculation of 97 mph.

Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 08 2009 12:43 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Vortex [Re: danielw]
      #87232 - Sun Nov 08 2009 12:38 PM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 17:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 17:14:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°37'N 86°03'W (21.6167N 86.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 60 miles (97 km) to the ENE (57°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,927m (9,603ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NW (325°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 73° at 90kts (From the ENE at ~ 103.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNW (327°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 60° to 240° (ENE to WSW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 90kts (~ 103.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:11:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:18:00Z

Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 08 2009 12:39 PM)


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mwillis
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Eye Forming? [Re: danielw]
      #87233 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:05 PM

Looking at the JSL color image http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-jsl.html

Look at the last two frames, if that is an eye forming along 86lat and 22 long it looks like to me that the eye moved east. Can anyone explain for correct me?


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Rasvar
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Re: Hurricane Ida Entering Gulf Today [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87234 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:24 PM

I think that was the proper move extending the watch. I still have to wonder why it was not done initially. But that is neither here nor there. Ida is a cat 2 now. I am hoping that the end of the intensification is coming now. This is still a very tricky forecast beyond 24 hours.

--------------------
Jim


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rgd
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Re: Eye Forming? [Re: mwillis]
      #87235 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:25 PM

It is not a eye forming.When you look at a loop you need to look at more then a few frames but it is still moving north north west if not NW yet right on course.

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MichaelA
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Re: Eye Forming? [Re: mwillis]
      #87236 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:29 PM

Quote:

Looking at the JSL color image http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-jsl.html

Look at the last two frames, if that is an eye forming along 86lat and 22 long it looks like to me that the eye moved east. Can anyone explain for correct me?



Also appears to be doing that on the Vis Floater Loop. I'm hoping that is a temporary wobble rather than a trend, but there appears to be an eye feature developing to the NNE of the advisory position at 85.9 W; 21.8 N.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 5/4/1


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kromdog
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Re: Eye Forming? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87237 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:39 PM

I think everyone on the West Coast of Central Florida should keep a close eye on this storm. I am in Tampa and just left Publix. The only supplies people appeared to be buying were for their tailgate parties! It may be different if this was June - August. I think because it is November (Thanksgiving), some may be letting their guard down.

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rgd
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Re: Eye Forming? [Re: kromdog]
      #87238 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:42 PM

It is not a eye feature taken in a whole loop not a few frames.

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