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Archives 2000s >> 2004 Storm Forum

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Accuracy [Re: Keith234]
      #18018 - Sat Aug 07 2004 09:36 PM

Well it's only a wave , but we have some accurate predictions on location as of 8 pm Saturday. Quite a few of us are very close to the actual position. Remember the NHC said off the east coast.

As of 8pm, W Caribbean tropical wave...the remnants of T.D. Two...is along 82w S of 21n moving W 10-15 kt. Wave has weakened with a less pronounced wind shift than yesterday and an elongated appearance on satellite.

Actual 21.0, 82.0 approx.
Carl 21.3, 83.1
TG 22.0,81.0
Steve 22.5, 83.1
Myself 19.2, 81.2

Very Good Guys!!!!

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Accuracy [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #18021 - Sat Aug 07 2004 09:45 PM

Ed, I like your location of 18.2, 81.9 better, because that makes me the closest one as of 8 p.m.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Accuracy [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #18029 - Sat Aug 07 2004 11:44 PM

Actually, Steve's guess was 19.2N 82.3W (I think that you were looking at his 94 hour forecast position) - which was mighty close. My earlier coordinates were at 01Z, so at 00Z the location was probably more like 18.2N 81.7W.
Cheers,
ED


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Accuracy [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #18040 - Sun Aug 08 2004 02:38 AM

Do I win the beer? Heh. It was pretty obvious all along that the NHC was out to lunch with their forecast. The storm was to be near Jamaica by Saturday and into the SE Gulf on Monday. I like my 25mph winds for now and a 40 for Monday. Let me say this - the IR presentation (dubious I know) is as good as it has been since its classified days. Water of LA (according to the maximum potential site) puts an 870mb low potential just off the LA coast. Had we had those conditions for Lili, wow - BOOM. But anyway, Bastardi brought up an interesting point today. He noted that Alex wasn't even progged from 5 days out by the NHC and that we will likely be in that ballgame several more times this year where something run-of-the-mill turns out to be really intense overnight and by landfall (by that I mean strong development very near the coast rather than away from it). Could be crucial down later in the season when we've got a "disorganized wave" suddenly announced as a developing tropical system with some small potential and finally - oh btw, this is a Cat 3.

HF owes me a brew.

Steve


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Accuracy [Re: Anonymous]
      #18108 - Sun Aug 08 2004 08:39 PM

According to Ed, the 8 pm position was more like 18.2, 81.7. So, my 19.2, 81.2 beats Steve's 19.2, 82.3 by 0.1 degree. Therefore, HF owes me the beer.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Accuracy [Re: Anonymous]
      #18120 - Sun Aug 08 2004 09:56 PM

Well, it turns out that I made a small error when I computed the 08/00Z position. When I extrapolated the position I was using a forward speed of 10 knots, but it was actually 10mph at the time. This means that the longitude was actually 81.75W at 00Z, so based on composite error, it was a tie - which means that HF has to cough up two beers (I like that solution). Of course the real tie-breaker is the 10/00Z position - and I think that everybody will miss that one. I figure that the 10/00Z position will be somewhere around 23.5N 89.1W - good luck!
ED


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Reopen the Challenge? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #18209 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:01 AM

Think we need to restart the challenge...this time...how bout for landfall and intensity...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: LI Phil]
      #18321 - Mon Aug 09 2004 04:56 PM

Eh, I can't be touched. I had this bish progged from 8 days out as an Eastern Gulf threat even though I second-guessed myself over the weekend. But it'll make landfall around Pensacola as a 70mph T.S. on Thursday night (Or at least that's the call).

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: Steve]
      #18328 - Mon Aug 09 2004 05:07 PM

Posted this on Wednesday, August 4th. Why not?

Will go with the speed demon theory...misses the trof...survives the graveyard...gets into the GOM. Then heads straight for Rickonboat as a CAT V.

I got everything right (with the exception of the speed demon theory), and you know rick wants it!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: LI Phil]
      #18411 - Mon Aug 09 2004 09:38 PM

Cat 1 Pensacola FL




http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18412 - Mon Aug 09 2004 09:42 PM

Bonnie will sit in the GOM and blow up. She will keep everyone on pins and needles til Friday, then she will be at Cat 1 or 2 and go in at the big bend area circa Josephine. But, not before putting every single coastal town on hurricane watch or warning for at least an hour or more each region.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #18433 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:52 PM

I will go with my thinking that the trough to turn Bonnie will not be as quick and Bonie will actually end up further west. I am going to say between Mobile and Biloxi as a cat 2.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: Rasvar]
      #18437 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:00 PM

mouse went out earlier, but hadn't checked the forum for a couple days anyway. geez, picking up quite a beer tab doing this stuff... hope you guys are talking about cheap macrobrew and none of the specials on tap... eh anyway.
quite a botch on my track idea.. joepub carl and steve got the best overall in terms of track. not bad on intensity either.
landfall forecast is the remaining challenge. if you've already posted, come back and add in the extra information:
1) landfall site
2) landfall time (local or zulu)
3) intensity (kt/mb)
for me i'm going to prelim it to:
mexico beach, florida, 06Z august 13th, 95kt/972mb
HF 0300z10august


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #18440 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:13 PM

Ok in the format requested:
Miss/Al border 00Z August 13 90Kt/970mb

Fixed pressure.

Edited by Rasvar (Mon Aug 09 2004 11:16 PM)


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: Rasvar]
      #18448 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:33 PM

Gulf Shores,Al early Fri A.M. 85.7mph

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
common sense to all you nobodies out there [Re: Anonymous]
      #18450 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:40 PM

don't bother posting on a challenge as anonymous. it really defeats the purpose of the whole thing. identify yourself in some way. i can listen to the voices in my head if i want random thoughts from no one.
HF 0340z10august


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: common sense to all you nobodies out there [Re: HanKFranK]
      #18461 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:43 AM

LOL Hank Frank...Heres my guess, Between Mobile and Destin (Does this count or do I have to be more specific?), Thursday Mid-day, 80kts, 980mb.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #18464 - Tue Aug 10 2004 12:51 AM

I'll give this a shot, on nothing more than a hunch.

Landfall location: Laguna Beach, FL (a bit NW of Panama City Beach)
Landfall time: 1pm CT Thurs. 8/12
Intensity: 75kt/984mb

I'd also not like to rule out a potential 'brush' of the Louisiana islands, but I don't think the center will pass over land there, especially considering the relative size of the storm.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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RoyGBiv
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: Clark]
      #18507 - Tue Aug 10 2004 04:03 AM

1. Steinhatchee, FL (nearly indiscernible c.o.c.)
2. 0900Z, FRI
3. 60kt/998


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Reopen the Challenge? [Re: RoyGBiv]
      #18530 - Tue Aug 10 2004 06:43 AM

1. Mobile (actually Mobile Bay)
2. 1200Z Friday
3. 160kts/895mb

NO NO NO...this is serious...sorry rickonboat

here's the real guess

1. PCB (sorry andy1, coop & JK)
2. 1400Z Fri
3. 88 kts/980mb

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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