neospaceblue
Weather Watcher
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 28
Loc: Newport News, VA
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MY 7 DAY DEAN FORECAST
(NOTE: Yes, I make my predictions up to a week)
12HRS -- 90 KTS
24HRS -- 100 KTS
36HRS -- 110 KTS
48HRS -- 125 KTS
72HRS -- 135 KTS
========96 HOURS FORECAST IF MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE YUCATAN========
96HRS -- 100 KTS...INLAND
120HRS -- 120 KTS
144HRS -- 105 KTS...LANDFALL
168HRS -- 30 KTS.....DISSIPATING
========96 HOURS FORECAST IF NO LANDFALL==================
96HRS -- 150 KTS
120HRS -- 130 KTS
144HRS -- 110 KTS....LANDFALL
168HRS -- 35 KTS.....DISSIPATING INLAND
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I survived: Hurricane Bonnie (1998), Hurricane Dennis (1999), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006)
Edited by neospaceblue (Fri Aug 17 2007 03:01 PM)
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Dean continues to fluctuate in intensity.. Hate to break this to you guys but the models CANNOT be trusted yet. There still showing a fast moving ULL, while it is on the move, it still moving slowly and could cause Dean to slow down more once it reaches it which I think will happen.. also note the WNW movement, Hugh and the pointed out that it is NO wobble.. things can still change and right now the WHOLE Gulf Coast from Florida to Mexico should watch Dean Closely.. not just Texas. Dr. Masters wrote in his blog that The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly tonight and Sunday morning, so we should have some excellent model runs available Sunday morning and afternoon. Maybe the models will be more accurate with the new info from NOAA by the 00Z runs. For now, lets not be so confident in our own forecasts, lets just wait and see what Dean wants to do. 
btw.. hearing some reports from people in South Florida, pressures are still low.. which in the future if that continues and the ridge is'nt really that strong could have a BIG impact on Deans track. It's a possibility NOT a deffinate, just possibility!
Edited by allan (Sat Aug 18 2007 02:07 PM)
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longwayoff
Unregistered
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Texas / LA border
The ridge sure looks like the hurricane could easily get pulled northward as it comes toward Yucatan. It already looks NW of current predictions. went north, west, south, west and north and I recall at least 5 major shifts before anyone was ready to say THIS is it.
my prediction is that what is currently forcast, won't hold.
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Charleston, SC 32.78N 79.94W
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I am not going so far as to say the Louisiana-Texas border, but I do think that Dean is going to go farther north than is forecast. My call is near Corpus Christi, Texas. If this scenario plays out, areas around the Houston Metropolitan Area may see tropical storm force winds. The main reason I think this is that if the west-northwestwards motion continues, Dean will start to be "pulled" into the ULL forecast to pass through the Gulf of Mexico. In other words, Dean is gradually getting closer and closer to the low.
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qtpa2ts
Unregistered
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I agree that we in Corpus Christi are going to take the hit of this storm. Whether from a dead on track or it just being a touch south of us. People here don't think it is going to come or effect us given the recent ERIN that we all prepared for and we only got some sprinkles of rain. It's hard to believe what they are saying about it at all.. but I will tell you this.. my reservations out of town are made. BRING IT ON DEAN!!! 
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eltond
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
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I dont trust the forecast models since hit Louisiana.I am from Louisiana and I was watching the news that night when my local weather man even said his own self that it would hit Louisiana.I agree with everyone else that it will move north.
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Texas Cane Tracker
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Tomball, TX
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If I had to predict where the center of Dean will ultimately impact the U.S., I would predict landfall just north of Brownsville, TX.
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qtpa2ts
Unregistered
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Is it true the ULL hasn't really moved west? If so then Dean is going to catch up to it and northern she blows right to the Texas Coast Line! No time to panic as of yet.. but if that ULL keeps on being stubborn we better be ready to move out of the way quick!
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 224
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
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Since this is a gut feeling type thread, I am going WAY out on a limb (and showing how confident I am in the models) and, regrettably, predicting a landfall somewhere just east of Galveston. This would put major effects in the area between Galveston and New Orleans. I have watched and tracked storms for more than 35 years (and nearly went into Meteorology...alas I was a Biology major!) and have seen too many of these forcast tracks be far off to the west. This is mainly a gut feeling, but interactions with land to the north of the storm, along with ULL interactions will turn this storm up into the Gulf.........here's REALLY hoping that I am TOTALLY off and you all will be busting my chops next week when the storm goes into Mexico (and don't get the idea, that I am wishing this storm on ANYBODY)....but I don't buy it....Mike, Demo, Storm Hunter, Chaos, Cuildemort and the rest, keep us posted and up to date....your info is great!!
EDIT: Sunday 9am.....it is looking more and more like my model skepticism was unfounded....this is great news and that the storm will NOT be heading to the US..lets keep hoping!!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2012 Season Prediction: 16/8/3
Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Sun Aug 19 2007 09:04 AM)
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jhony blacks
Unregistered
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hello people my name is jean marc from saint martin telling you all that the hurricane dean is not going to hit jamaica entirly why beacause of the blue montain so jammaica dont worry ok best of luck
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NEW HERE
Unregistered
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Lamar.. since you seem to have some experience in all of this could you answer a couple of questions? OR anyone else who knows this stuff for sure...
1) Can they tell the speed of the ULL? If so.. what is it?
2) When do they expect to update the models?
3) From the eye of the storm outwards.. what would be the most likely range of major damage on initial impact from rain, floods, and extreme wind damage? 200 miles out? 100 miles out??
This is fascinating. Thanks for reading.
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Trekman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL 30.44N 86.62W
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My Air National Guard unit in Florida cut its teeth on its new mission with /Rita, coordinating the military response to help the civil authorities has had three practice recalls since Wednesday. Dont know if that has anything to do with the projected track or not. We would stay in Florida but be heavily involved in any airlift/rescue needed.
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Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 224
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
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Quote:
Lamar.. since you seem to have some experience in all of this could you answer a couple of questions? OR anyone else who knows this stuff for sure...
1) Can they tell the speed of the ULL? If so.. what is it?
2) When do they expect to update the models?
3) From the eye of the storm outwards.. what would be the most likely range of major damage on initial impact from rain, floods, and extreme wind damage? 200 miles out? 100 miles out??
This is fascinating. Thanks for reading.
I am not anywhere near the level of expertise of a lot of folks (like those I named, plus others) on this board. However, I will make a stab at answering your questions and hope the experts correct me (i don't mind) if I am WAY off base.
1)The speed of the ULL can be judged by satellite loops, but I have no idea what its speed is at this time. It seems from discussions to be fluctuating in its forward speed. SOMEONE should be able to tell you.
2) Most models update every 6 hours. They do runs at 00, 06, 12, and 18 Z which is greenwich mean time (or zulu). On the east coast, I believe it is 4 hours ahead of us (so the 06 run is at 2amEST, the 12Z run is at 8am, etc)
3) Damage ranges vary widely and depend on many aspects of a storm. The National Hurricane site ( National Hurricane Center ) and several sites (sorry, I couldn't remember if this site carries them to, but it probably does) show either the current wind field of the storm, or make predictions of the future wind field, so you could gauge the level of impact wherever the storm makes landfall. YOu will also find statements like the following from the current advisory on Dean: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
Hope that helps......this IS a great site....lots to learn even after 35 years of following these things!!!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2012 Season Prediction: 16/8/3
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NEW HERE
Unregistered
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Thanks so much for answering my questions in such detail. I really appreciate it and I look forward to learning so much more!!!
As for the speed and direction of the ULL... I really want to know!! So if anyone can tell me this info or how to find it... I would appreciate it.
THANKS AGAIN FOR HELPING ME OUT!! Look forward to learning more from you along the way....
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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qtpa2ts
Unregistered
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I don't agree... Even if it hits Mexico.. South East Texas is going to be hurting badly. We are already over flowing in the rain water department and a large majority of out lying areas do not have suitable structures to withstand the wind or tornado impacts to follow to the north of the storm. Flooding in Texas will be devistating. As for the excitement factor.. yeah.. it's exciting in a scary way.. but I look forward to the day when it is more predictable earlier and more lives are saved.
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ColoradoPapa
Unregistered
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I am a Colorado landbound senior citizen who spends his winters in Harlingen. I agree that Dean will hit near Brownsville and work it's way west and north along the Rio Grande and Pecos Rivers to Albuquerque and up I-25 through Colorado. I expect heavy rains all along the way with extensive flooding. You heard it first from right here. 
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD 26.10N 80.30W
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Seems quite possible that Dean might "shoot" thru the Yucatan passage. Other posters have suggested that a slightly more N component is in the cards. What say a knowledgeable member to this speculation of mine?
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Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_
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WONDERINGINTX
Unregistered
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FIrst off the new coordinates don't make sense to me. If the pressure has dropped to it's lowest point.. wouldn't that mean the surface wind would increase to a higher point??
If someone could answer these questions I will find a way to bring you donuts!
What moves the ULL? Could the ULL still slow down? What would make Dean Speed up? Is that possible in the overnight hours? Could Dean still catch up with the ULL?
As you can tell I am not meteorolgist... 
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BillD
Weather Analyst
Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
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Often the winds lag behind the pressure, so expect to see the winds increase over the next few hours. As Clark explained in the main thread, the (Eye Replacement Cycle) hasn't completed, which is why the numbers don't look quite right. At the same time, there will be some impact on Dean passing over land on the north side, and also as Clark points out, Dean is about to cross over a warm water eddy. Lots of factors in play, but Dean is likely to reach category 5 overnight.
Bill
Edited by BillD (Sat Aug 18 2007 09:24 PM)
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WONDERINGINTX
Unregistered
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Thank you for your quick response.. still a bit confused about whether or not the ULL can slow and Dean can catch up. I am paying attention to what everyone is saying on the posts but it is confusing. I admire all of you because this stuff is complicated.
Thanks again...
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
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I was thinking more or less the same thing about that ULL now moving west over the Gulf of Mexico. Something that looked very much like it moved west ahead of what became Erin over the Gulf (and Caribbean) and then across Texas. Now however--after watching Clark Evans' and 's animated models--and after trying to remember where these features were in the last few days--it seems as if the models take these sorts of things in account.
Also even when they appear to have almost no convection these features still seem to show up fairly well in water vapor imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
At present the ULL seems to be moving west at about the same speed as Dean and maybe moistening up the atmosphere over the western part of the Carribean along Dean's projected path.
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WONDERINGINTX
Unregistered
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Thank you! So is there a place on the internet where you can get the actual speed of the ULL? I don't know if it is just because Dean has gotten bigger but it sure looks like Dean is moving just a bit faster then the ULL. I am not trained in any of this but it just looks that way to me on the link you sent. I understand why all of you love doing this... it's fascinating to see how mother nature does her own thing. Again.. Thank you so much.
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BillD
Weather Analyst
Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
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This is an oversimplification, the complexity of weather systems on this scale are difficult to comprehend (and I'm not totally there yet) and even more difficult to explain. Dean wants to turn right (North), the ridge (high pressure) to the North is keeping Dean from turning. The ULL causes a weakness in the ridge. As long as it stays far enough out in front of Dean, Dean will keep moving quickly to the West and not turn. If Dean starts to catch up to the ULL, the ridge to the North of Dean starts to weaken a little, causing Dean to slow down, since Dean wants to turn. If the ULL stays out in front enough, the ridge builds in behind as the ULL moves along, and keeps Dean on the westerly track. So unless the ULL stalls, which it does not look like it is going to do, Dean's speed will self adjust. Also both the ridge to the North of Dean and the ridge to the NW of the ULL are part of the mix, as well as other ULLs and ridges. Dem05 did a good job of explaining the overall upper level scenario in the main thread. I hope my attempt at explaining this didn't make it more confusing.
Bill
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WONDERINGINTX
Unregistered
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No.. that helped Bill thanks alot!! I understand that there is more in play.. I am going to take an amusing guess from everything I have learned. I am going to say that I believe Dean goes to Brownsville.. and if not.. then I will definetly be back with more questions for all of you... if you don't mind... I know I am going against all the models.. but what they are seeing doesn't make sense to me.
Goodnight to all of you... and thanks again for all of your patience and help. Please feel free to laugh and my thinking about Dean... unless I am right.. then please pray for me!!
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
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I use satellite imagery in some of my work but know little about weather. If you're willing to do a little web-searching to find out how, I'm pretty sure you could calculate distances (and thereby speed) using the latitude and longitude grids in these images.
I'm just a hobbyist who'd never be mistaken for a meteorology student. I prefer 's more selective presentation. If you're just looking for some peace of mind--or additional incentives to be prepared--I suggest clicking the Play button and seeing where the last few frames have the storm making landfall.
http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?year=2007&storm=4
And please take care!
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WONDERINGINTX
Unregistered
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Thank you so much!! I have seen that model and hit play before... I simply don't believe that's what it will do. I know you can't put much of your "instincts" into something so scientific... but from looking all over the internet and from what I have read on these boards... I still believe it is going to turn to the north a bit.
My 7yr old has been saying for 2 years that she wants to become a meteorologist. I guess it's time for me to catch up just in case she does... Thanks again to everyone!!!
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Although this forum is not moderated as strictly as others, the site rules still need to be observed. Many of the responses here really should have used the PM capability to thank someone for their response. Also please remember that is not a Chat Room.
ED
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: Cape Haze Peninsula, SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
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Unless something drastic changes in the next 24-60 hours, the track is looking pretty good to me in terms of validity.
Is it POSSIBLE something could change between now and then? Of course it's possible. But as many others have posted, it's not PROBABLE.
It is not unheard of for a storm to make a "u-ey" but it's extremely unlikely in this case, and from what I've seen, there's nothing in this storm's path to make a reasonable, rational person think this will happen.
While all interests in the Gulf should be exercising caution and awareness while this storm is still active, I would say that most likely we can, at this time and as long as current conditions hold, trust the predictions and not strain our brains (or creative imaginations) trying to make arguments for a east Gulf or widely different landfall than what the is predicting at this time.
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Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Nathan
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 10
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I think the models have got it pinned, for now at least barring something changing with the ULL. But being that it is still so far out, I think there is time for the course to fluctuate. However I see that as unlikely as the models suggest. I think that we will have a better idea as soon as it gets a bit closer to the Yucatan.
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mr jimmy
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: Spring TX
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Although no models are error-free, the consensus models are the one I keep one eye on and seem to somewhat agree with consensus. After Jamaica and the Caymans, on to Mexico. Mr. Slim needs to get his wallet out for this one.
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