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Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2967
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Fay Forecast Lounge
      #81203 - Sun Aug 10 2008 09:41 AM

This is the "lounge" for 92L, the wave in the Central Atlantic. The place for just saying what you think. Don't take mine or anyone else's word for it here.

My guess is that whatever comes of 92L (if it develops or not) will remain mostly south (especially if it stays weaker now) and affect some of the islands and approach the Southeast or enter the Gulf at some point. It's the time of year where I start to take things like this a bit more serious, but any real discussion of it probably won't happen until we determine if it will form or not.

Interestingly the discussion for Houston this mornng mentions this system and they are curious to see if it'll enter the gulf.

Quote:


LASTLY...THE TROPICS LOOK TO BE GETTING MORE ACTIVE. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING FL/CUBA
BY AUGUST 19TH. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP. 500 MB FLOW SHOWS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT`LL TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. BEARS WATCH.





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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #81204 - Sun Aug 10 2008 10:10 AM

the 6z GFS goes nuts with this and has it going up the east coast but not into the gulf. Its way out and models are not that good long range but it is getting better organized today. This season seems to be favoring these waves as there is a distinct lack of shear

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #81205 - Sun Aug 10 2008 10:49 AM Attachment (477 downloads)

Although 10 days out is hardly reliable this is what the GFS is telling us right now about 92L but, will obviously change. The ridge seems to be intact at 240 hrs.See attached image

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #81206 - Sun Aug 10 2008 12:00 PM

quite true...it is a long way out. Focusing on today, there is increasing organization and definite rotation (at the mid levels possibly). There is also outflow beginning to establish. I would not be surprised to see this classified by 11pm

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #81207 - Sun Aug 10 2008 12:15 PM

well that's quite the eye opener

yeah.. models imply it gets to our part of the world

it's looking better currently but there is real dry air out there and the high dips a bit
not sure if that would be the first wave or second..

we'll see

worth looking at would be Clark's intensity model from the main page

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clarki6latest.png

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #81214 - Sun Aug 10 2008 02:52 PM

Every blog I have read are saying basically the same thing,we are about to get very active.All the elements appear to be coming together.And because of where that High pressure is it does not look like we will have any fish spinners for a while.This is the time to really stay alert and check your supplies.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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CAT5Cane
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL 28.54N 81.30W
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #81215 - Sun Aug 10 2008 03:16 PM

It's definitely getting very active in the tropics as we approach mid August. We now have three waves to watch in the eastern Atlantic.

- CAT5 Cane
Altamonte Springs, Fla.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: CAT5Cane]
      #81220 - Sun Aug 10 2008 04:33 PM

Looks like someone said "the tropics are quiet" a bit too loud...
92L is certainly the further along of the two current "active" systems, but it's not there yet. Convection
is currently on a downward trend after having been very impressive earlier today. Assuming it eventually develops, which I suspect will happen by Tuesday, the models seem to want to take it further north than I would have guessed from the upper-air flow maps I've seen. Puerto Rico, the D.R./Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and ultimately Florida will need to keep an eye out, I believe, but that's a long way off.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: Hugh]
      #81225 - Sun Aug 10 2008 08:04 PM

nice discussion here... from HPC today 8/10/08

... A DEEP CYCLONE
DIGS SHARPLY FROM SW-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE US TO THE LEE OF THE
RIDGE...LEADING TO A RETROGRESSION OF AN EARLY WEEK ERN NOAM
TROUGH BACK TO THE E-CENTRAL US. THE COOLING SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
ACT TO FOCUS A LINGERING PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE FEEDS/POOLS DOWNSTREAM. THE EXTENT
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DIGGING DIFFERS BETWEEN
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BUT THERE IS A CLEAR RECENT TREND TO FAVOR AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. EVEN ACTING CONSERVATIVELY FOR
AUGUST...AN AMPLITUDE THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE FULL
RANGE OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS WOULD STILL PRODUCE
QUITE A POTENT TROUGH WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS UPWARDS OF 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE EARLY TO
MID AUGUST 2004 PATTERN.
THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT AS PER EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE IN ALMOST ALL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
RUNS. THIS TROUGH COULD EVEN PUMP UP DOWNSTREAM WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES/CARIBBEAN SEA.
.......

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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massrang
Unregistered




Re: 92L Forecast Lounge i think [Re: WeatherNut]
      #81227 - Sun Aug 10 2008 09:27 PM

the local weather men say it holds together it may slide up the east coast in about 1 week the could be about 200 to 300 hurdred miles of the georgia coast and may trurn to the north what do you think?

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JFV
Unregistered




Re: 92L Forecast Lounge i think *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: massrang]
      #81228 - Sun Aug 10 2008 09:42 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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massrang
Unregistered




Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #81229 - Sun Aug 10 2008 09:44 PM

i live in mass and we havent been hit since bob .i have to say the water is very warm and the could support a major hurricane it will be interesting to see what happens would do you think?

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massrang
Unregistered




Re: 92L Forecast Lounge i think [Re: JFV]
      #81230 - Sun Aug 10 2008 09:58 PM

i understand what you are saying and my is to monter weather i just listened to the westher channel and they stil it if it holds together threating the east could as you should know anything could happen think?

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tampa_looter
Unregistered




Re: Ramp Up in Activity [Re: MikeC]
      #81233 - Sun Aug 10 2008 11:19 PM

Convection is spotty but there is a mid to upper level swirl going on. Probably a TD tommorrow. Models take it smack ala Chris track. Although some uncertainty abound.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2967
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Ramp Up in Activity [Re: tampa_looter]
      #81238 - Mon Aug 11 2008 08:49 AM

Looking at long range models this morning is not for the squeamish (particularly This one (check the 216 hour projection).

Luckily though, these usually are so far off its not worth checking (Very far into the Lounge area), but still seeing that raises an eyebrow or two. I mirrored it here in case the old one gets updated here.

All this means is that it's worth watching, and I don't think it will do what that projection says.

Better news that the newer model runs are losing support for both systems and 92L isn't too healthy now, so there is an even better chance that either system is just not going to do much (I hope).


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Ramp Up in Activity [Re: MikeC]
      #81239 - Mon Aug 11 2008 09:16 AM

In the last couple of frames it looks like it is starting to get better organized.
www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MissBecky
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 90
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.67N 81.73W
Re: Ramp Up in Activity [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #81244 - Mon Aug 11 2008 02:03 PM

Looking at both the visible satellite and the infrared, I'm much more impressed (and a little concerned) with 93L at this hour than with 92L. It will be interesting to see what the models do with both these systems tomorrow, once we have recon data.

--------------------
In search of a witty sig.


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: Ramp Up in Activity [Re: MissBecky]
      #81245 - Mon Aug 11 2008 03:10 PM

Currently IMHO 92L will be a bigger threat towards the US. I think 92L will slowly begin organization later tonight and tomorrow maybe at times fighting for its life. However, once the storm makes it to the N Leeward Islands, it will be in a better enviroment to gain momentum. As of right now, 93L looks like it will be a fish.

--------------------


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Ramp Up in Activity [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #81258 - Tue Aug 12 2008 12:00 PM

Ok, 92L does look better but Dr. Masters in Wunderground did show the quickscat this morning and showed an open wave. Sooo I don't think it becomes a TD today, possibly and best bet is tomorrow. The track has me questioning, south Florida or Gulf. It's always possible that it could go my direction as some of the models pointy out at the end of there runs with a northward movement.

93L... You all say fish, I say we need to watch it. I see no recurvature with it as high pressure is just too strong. Maybe if the ridge breaks down a bit, it could go north.. but not before hitting Bermuda. 93L actually looks horrible on satellite so it might take a few days for it to develop. Don't forget guys, you can't ALWAYS go by what the models show. the GFDL is NOT showing a recurvature, just a northward movement, could go west after that poleward movement.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
to recap 92L [Re: MikeC]
      #81265 - Tue Aug 12 2008 04:12 PM

I never post until i get a "feeling". Is that wierd?

We have a code red from the Navy site, a locked in Bermuda high, and early consolidation of the models, notably the GFDL and the euro... on a path missing the main islands and skirting through the keys, into the gulf....
I will be watching this site and hoping the moderators, especially Hank Frank and the owners of this site...keep us update

oh, and it's August...hmmm

Katrina....August
Andrew
Camille....

to name a few

(Post was moved - Model projections/discussions belong in the Forecast Lounge.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 12 2008 08:21 PM)


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