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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 47 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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Confused
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Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: Raymond]
      #84938 - Thu Sep 11 2008 05:36 PM

None of the Gulf storms this year have developed in intensity as anticipated. A few years ago, if it made it to the Gulf then it was Everyman for himself and God for us All. I am not complaining, but the intensity forecast have been off for Gulf storms...

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: Raymond]
      #84941 - Thu Sep 11 2008 07:10 PM

The 5pm EDT update moved the path slightly East (puts me on the west side of the storm) but the 18Z GFS and UKMET just came out and both have it going to my West, if the GFDL comes out with it's 18Z and also has it in the same spot it did before, the NHC track should also shift back slightly west. But we are also talking about a matter of maybe 20 miles, much less than the error on the 36 hour track.

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Rob In Miss
Unregistered




Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: hogrunr]
      #84943 - Thu Sep 11 2008 07:55 PM

The latest WV loop appears to be showing an eye in the last few frames but is to the left of the current forecast tract. A small cricle that could be an eye keeps popping up from time to time but is all over the place relative to the forcasted track.This wobble watching may be playing tricks on my eyes...Anyone else seeing this? I'm beginning to think the circle is not a true eye or the COC but is inside the COC and making the wobbles appear to be more pronunced. Yes? No? Maybe?

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: Rob In Miss]
      #84945 - Thu Sep 11 2008 08:01 PM

If you have followed imagery of Ike over time his eye has often been on the left, so far to the left it looked open a few times despite the large cloud cover that was round and circular. Something about the strangeness of this storm vs movement. He is also speeding up a little I think and that should also make him look a bit stranger. He is leaning to the left wnw/nw towards the coast line like he is in a hurry.

8pm shows he is now in fact moving 12 mph forward speed not 10, that trend should continue.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Boomer
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Loc: Maryland 39.29N 76.61W
Landfall? [Re: LoisCane]
      #84981 - Fri Sep 12 2008 08:13 AM

A lurker amateur question:
If Ike doesn't have a well defined eye, what is considered landfall? When does it occur?


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Landfall? [Re: Boomer]
      #84986 - Fri Sep 12 2008 08:33 AM

There is still an "eye" center of circulation if you will. Just can't see it on the SAT pictures.

I think Ike is the strangest looking hurricane I've ever seen. Just never got ramped up in the Gulf
which is a good thing. It appears that Ike just spread out which hampered it's strenghening.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Forecast Points [Re: hogrunr]
      #85014 - Fri Sep 12 2008 02:50 PM

What not to do in ike:


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: Landfall? [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #85017 - Fri Sep 12 2008 03:23 PM

oops... wrong forum!

Edited by ShanaTX (Fri Sep 12 2008 03:39 PM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Landfall? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #85020 - Fri Sep 12 2008 03:40 PM

Good live TV link for Houston http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/livenow?id=6384042
The local met just said that Ike looks to be strengthening and may already be a Cat 3 with 120 mph winds. He's also thinking that the track may be moved a bit south on the next update.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Landfall? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85023 - Fri Sep 12 2008 03:58 PM

Flight-level winds have supported cat 3 for awhile now, but SFMR obs and the dropsondes that have made it all the way to the surface have yet to confirm cat 3 winds. Unless that happens, or the flight-level winds increase even more, they will probably not bump the intensity up to cat 3.

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