watchinout
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
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I know we been talking about Gus alot and Hanna is looking alot better. But far out to the east I don't think 97L is 97L anymore it looks like a depression or tropical storm to me what do yall think ?
(Started a 97L Lounge with this post.)
Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 01 2008 02:43 PM)
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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Yea I agree it looks like we might have tropical depression or tropical storm ike out there already .
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Highly likely that 97L is already a TD. has had their hands a little full overnight, but with a little more daylight and perhaps a microwave and a better scatt pass or two on the way, it seems reasonable to presume that it gets declared 09L today (Monday) and given how it has been improving so far, with nothing looking terribly problematic for it in the near-term, perhaps also becomes Ike by tonight or tomorrow morning.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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More models seem to be picking up on a Recurve around the time Ike nears the Bahamas, and so far I think this is the most likely scenario. If hanna moves more North than west, then both would be out to sea before any significant land impacts.
I'm hoping for the model trends to continue to place Ike with a more hard right turn to the north and east away from land.
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JMII
Weather Guru
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Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Not really happy with 5PM Ike update, but not surprised by it either.
A couple of things to look at for clues as to where Ike will go: 1) what Hanna does since Ike should follow in her footsteps somewhat, 2) how big and/or strong the high pressure ridge to his north come Sunday/Monday , 3) the location of the edge of said high pressure. Forecast is for intensification up to Cat 2, followed by some weaken due to shear (and a slightly SW slide), followed by strengthening up to Cat 3 and then that infamous NW curve. Got a week to go to so alot can change but like I said in the Hanna lounge I don't like Ike already!
Currently Ike is starting to run into some shear from Hanna's outflow but he's got a strong core and just another day of dry air to overcome.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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saluki
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL 26.20N 80.12W
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Well, I like Mike (who points out that several models show recurvature scenarios) much better than Ike! I'll be very interested to see how the 's 5 p.m. forecast holds up and if the high is strong enough to cause the predicted west-southwest movement Friday and into Saturday.
Edited by saluki (Wed Sep 03 2008 06:11 PM)
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Ben F.
Registered User
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Posts: 2
Loc: Palm Beach Gardens, FL 26.84N 80.10W
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Ike is now a Category 3. This is what I have feared, a major hurricane headed to South Florida. This could be worse thna Francis, Jean or . I don't wish a hurricane on anyone else, but I really hope this dissipates or goes into the Atlantic and breaks up.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Wow!If this forcast track is anywhere near what it is now,come Friday,than SE Florida really needs to prepare for a major cane.Ike is fast becoming a monster.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Stronger hurricanes tend to move poleward sooner,I'd be more worried if it stayed weaker. I'm in wait and see mode. Check back this weekend.
The other possibility (less likely, but possible) is that it enhances the ridge and moves more westward. Either way I'm not too concerned yet.
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
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I find the below visual from stormpulse.com very intricate and easy to read.
I realize on the Main Page near the bottom, provides many links to various other sites, so I especially wanted to bring this particual link to the forefront as it's quite basic for me to read and understand as I'm a simple woman seeking simple answers.
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008
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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 256
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
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Question: Does anyone know a site that has long term satellite loops with the most recent image being fairly current? I have been looking for quite some time but cannot find a good site that shows multiple days of image loops of wide or even focused views of storms.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Where are the mets?We need some input as far as the track of Ike.Please chime in.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
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What is interesting in the sudden ramping up of Ike, is that the SST's he is encountering didn't seem strong enough to support a strong cat 4....yet, here we are. It just goes to show you what they admit....that intensity forecasts are not easy, and the current knowledge is limited. I do admire their ability to track the paths however...and with Ike, we have a major player on our hands. I have one question however.....with the intensity of Ike...now a cat 4....doesn't the upper ridge he is carrying along, and his cat 4 intensity...change somewhat the effect the steering currents will have? I would think that major swings in direction would be minimized....sorta plow through....instead of large changes in direction?
My thinking is because when looking back at major hurricanes... Andrew....Katrina....Gilbert.....they all seem to kinda be less effected by weaker steering currents....
Do you think the models are able to adjust the forecasts....when they plug the fact their is a cat 4 on their hands now? I would think their would be some deviation in the track...
That being said...I think it will get on a more westerly track...and not deviate much....
putting, in my mind....so Florida...and specifically....
Miami.....
in the bullseye...imho......lol
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Post deleted by MikeC
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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I moved mule's post to the Lounge since it was taking a lounge type guess on the main page. Personally I don't think that will happen.
What we do have is a category 4 storm, which won't hold that for 5 days, shear will weaken it a bit, it may go stronger for a bit, it may go down to a category 1. If it maintains the core it will be a problem, but it likely won't.
Ike Turning north depends on a developing trough to its north, and how much riding Ike may help generate as a major. It's likely to be a close call, but I don't think it's worth trying to take a guess an exact landfall point now (or the lack of landfall).
The Latest is interesting, it takes it south, stays north of Cuba then heads generally toward Florida, but at a curve that still has out to sea a possibility. If Ike is still showing this over the weekend, then there will be more to be concerned with. Anyone getting Anxious about it now is jumping the gun.
But still we'd like to hear, what do you think will happen?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Quote:
What we do have is a category 4 storm, which won't hold that for 5 days, shear will weaken it a bit, it may go stronger for a bit, it may go down to a category 1. If it maintains the core it will be a problem, but it likely won't.
Down to a cat 1?The says it will go down to a cat 3,then back up to a cat 4.This looks to be a very close call for SE Florida.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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iso
Unregistered
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Quote:
If Ike is still showing this over the weekend, then there will be more to be concerned with. Anyone getting Anxious about it now is jumping the gun.
there is a fine line between anxious and concerned. as a 50-yr resident of east central florida, i'm very concerned about the good possibility of a W/NW moving catagory 4 hurricane in the Bahamas on the september 10th peak of the season.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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well we all know how inaccurate a 5 day projected path can be at times. however, this worries me a bit. fl hasnt had this nasty of a storm since Andrew. and as long as that thing stays south of the bahamas we got a real large problem on our hand. this is something we all need to glue our eyes on. for what its worth, it looks like when it gets to the bahamas, it will make a northernly turn but we know how that goes. its a crapshot.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Quote:
Quote:
If Ike is still showing this over the weekend, then there will be more to be concerned with. Anyone getting Anxious about it now is jumping the gun.
there is a fine line between anxious and concerned. as a 50-yr resident of east central florida, i'm very concerned about the good possibility of a W/NW moving catagory 4 hurricane in the Bahamas on the september 10th peak of the season.
Yep this is a wake up call for some, and the cone is concerning, but I'm not really anxious yet. If it can maintain the core itself through the shear (Which is what the thinks) then it will maintain major. But I think the discussion says it best about intensity forecasts, near term they aren't that good, 3-5 days out they are educated guesses.
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okihabu
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Spring Hill, Florida 28.41N 82.53W
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I agree with Mike on this issue. But a 5 day forecast? Correct me if I am wrong on this, but dont most Cat 4/5's stay on the same general course they are heading? I dont think Ike will be that level, cat 3 maybe. I think a general nnw when it gets to the bahamas. The trough will pull it that way. Now if it does as says and gains back to a cat 4 then S. Florida should watch Ike closely.
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Chuck Good
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Bev
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
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My understanding is that a hurricane or tropical storm leaves a path of cooler water temperatures in her wake. Considering Ike is predicted to travel for some time directly in Hanna's wake, is this likely to have an inhibiting effect on strength in addition to the increased shear?
note:
overlapping paths can be easily seen here: http://www.ibiseye.com
Edited: Never mind, the 11am advisory answered my question. Ask and ye shall receive. lol
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Never use a long word when a diminutive one will do.
Edited by Bev (Thu Sep 04 2008 10:47 AM)
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JMII
Weather Guru
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Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Ike looks very Andrew like to me: small but powerful. Hurricane force winds only extend out 35 miles according the , this is downright tiny in general storm terms. These little storms tend to track more linear due to their compact shape and high spin rates, just a top spinning stays put till is slows and begins to wobble like crazy (like Fay & Hanna did)
Ike over came a slot of dry air very quickly by keeping his core isolated and just plowing straight forward. Ahead of him is the same shear that is ripping Hanna apart, but she never had any core for defense. Still Ike will lose some punch, but considering he was forecast to be only a Cat 2 and made it to Cat 4 this weakening will be as dramatic (down to Cat 2 maybe). The effects of the Hanna's outflow (no matter how sloppy) is already effected Ike's west side and pushing him NW as predicted so the current track is verifying nicely.
Thus the 's future track looks reasonable to me, the longer Ike stays below 25N the more worried I get here in South FL since a late NW turns puts us in the strike zone of a major 'cane. Now Hanna keeps trending east so when Ike turns he too should be on the east side of the cone as clearly the models don't have a handle on pressure to the north. I would image the will be flooding the area NW of Hanna/Ike with recon missions so data should improve. Down the road there is a front coming that could also kick-the-baby (South Park reference) more east. Like I said before keep an eye on Hanna's track and wait for that NW turn on Monday, that will be when the real nail biting in South FL will start. Also for what is worth historical data supports Ike missing S FL (Isabel 2003 for example).
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Great discussion. Went back and looked at the interaction between the storms or more so Hanna's wetting up the atmosphere. As said by the she is big.. huge in size though not in strength. Much like an early wave by Africa moistens up the environment so is Hanna. Will that weaken the high... not sure how that works. High is strongly in place.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_ls_0.html
Hanna is really pulling it together, again her convective mass if not her wind speed.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html
The story will have new chapters soon, soon...
Being played out on real time here before our eyes!
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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the 11am update hasnt changed too much with the projected path. it put the soutern most part of florida more in the cone thats about it. simple as this we all just got to watch it for a couple more days. its south movement once it gets to the bahamas, worries me a bit but what can we do.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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A wise man worries when it is necessary. When he does make that forecasted dip I think a lot of people in South Florida are going to hold their breaths collectively.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html
Looks stronger than it is and yes I know it's strong.
Hanna looks more subtropical than anything else and though her moisture is all over the place.
The trough is beginning to push away the feature that's been carving away at Hanna (look how it just dipped down and flattened the top or the moisture) and then what? Not a great scenario and need to get better at the timing issue. Ike is relentlessly moving steady west north west. Normally his lat would give me some breathing space but with the projected dip WSW... we have to wait and see.
Recon goes in tomorrow I believe.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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well according to the recent track, the point where they have it on 8am on monday will be the tell all, atleast as of now. it looks at that point it will progessivly make the north turn. but just out of curiousity, through the storms i have witnessed, dont the stronger, quicker ones have the harder time making that northern turn? storms like fay and hanna dont have that issue it stalls, gets strong, gets weak, goes stationary and picks a direction. but this son of a gun is moving quickly and its strong. what does everyone think?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Three of the most reliable models(GFDL,NGFDL &NOGAPS) have Ike coming into S. Florida via the north east coast of Cuba.Let's hope they are wrong and the other models don't follow suit.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Generally, larger tropical cyclones are less likely to be affected by more transient influences on steering, especially if they are deep systems and well developed. On the other hand, it is typically more common to see smaller tropical cyclones jog, dip, or simply be steered by similar blocking ridges or even weak troughs. Actually, I have not found any greater significance to a hurricane being very strong or not, with regards to how it is steered by weaker influences. Simply that smaller storms in general seems to more easily alter course. Perhaps also stands to reason, how in some cases if a hurricane is a very deep system, but quite large, that it is itself impacting the environment ( i.e. warming the upper layers by means of extensive outflow ). Though powerful, I do not believe that a small hurricane would tend to alter the larger overall environment.
Well, looking at the overnight runs of into this morning, I cannot help but believe that Ike will in fact gain a little more latitude than has presently forecasted. This could of course be a good thing - if enough poleward motion is attained in the short term. What I mean by this is such: The building 594 high pressure ridge is actually forecast to form close to the point where Ike is to be today, into tommorrow. I have a hard time seeing how the heights are not rising first to the hurricanes north and northeast, however the models seems to suddenly have such high mid level heights to the storms NW in the near term. At minimum, I believe that Ike will gain more latitude than believes, and will cross north of 25N latitude. If in fact the height rises are distincly more to the NE of Ike, along with the existing weakness off the U.S. seaboard, than the possibility might really exist for Ike to perhaps slow down, but continue more NW'ward that forecast. If such occured for 36hr.'s or more, than I can see an issue of where Ike could be caught in a COL and have minimal steering for a while. I am less sure of the ultimate result then, if left with the prospect of Ike possibly affecting the Carolinas or mid Atlantic states, or eventually just swinging up ahead of some possible eventual weakness.
On the other hand, and assume greater short term accuracy by , and perhaps Ike remains south of 25N. Then, I do not see a real WSW motion, because of the close proximity of Ike to the center of this strong mid level high, but more of a general westward motion. Worse yet, timing would now be possibly changed because again, Ike might not be situated far enough to the south of the center of this ridge, but more "indented" into it. I would imagine a slower motion than we've seen - and perhaps an agonizingly slow westward crawl at about 8-10mph. Now, without such a southward bend to its course, it on one hand would be seemingly unlikely for a hurricane this far east at such a latitude to be able to simply continue to travel westward for too long, yet I do not see nearly enough of a reason for significant poleward motion throughout, because I do not see any obvious troughing to break down the W. Atlantic ridge. What appears to me to occur, is that the 594 W. Atlantic high maintains its integrity, but simply slides more eastward. One would then assume that Ike would follow the coutour of the more eastward strong high, thus creating a more NW motion. I however only see where a small temporary WNW motion would ensue, more or less just as Ike rounds the larger W. Atlantic high, until the next primary steering influence takes over. As far as I can see, that would be another, though weaker high centered over the Gulf Of Mexico and extending over eastward from there. If given any significant dip in the westerlies or short wave off the U.S. east coast, one could easily make the argument that this will degrade this weak ridge - and such would likely happen. Looking at the available 6Z data ( and previous run as well ), I see what appears a a large dip of the westerlies, almost like a weak but broad trough, entirely over the central , with the 500mb 582mb line not coming much south of Kansas. This trough does not appear to be digging, nor dropping a short wave down the U.S. east coast. Therefore, by my interpretation, there would seem to be significant ridging from the W. Atlantic well west into the Gulf of Mexico ( at least around 25N latitude ). Steering could be weak and perhaps even maintain only a slow 5kt. forwad motion, but I cannot see how Ike would not be forced more or less West to WNW at most, at the very end of the forecast time frame. This all said, I would tend to think an area from w. Palm Beach, Florida, north to Fort Pierce, Florida - perhaps to be of greatest risk of a possible Cat. 3/4 ( ASSUMING the many possible changes in long range steering which certainly is realisitic to realize given projections based on data so far out in time ).
As a disclaimer, please keep in mind, that the 12Z ( as well as a myriad of additional model data ) will update shortly, and this hypothesis could be just as easily be "thrown out the window" in a matter of hours. Simply my take on circumstances "of the moment".
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TheElNino1
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Orlando
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I was surprised by the latest European 12Z forecast for Ike. Instead of side swiping Florida it now takes the storm into Louisiana! Let see what the future model runs look like to see if a trend is developing.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2008090412!!/
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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A lot of the model runs this afternoon shifted west, which is still concerning. still a lot could happen between today and next week.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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as far as the models being run, shifting west, west meaning the track will move further west then north then northeast like 's current track? im confused on this.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
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Does anyone know why they have taken the tropical forecast points off the overlay at SSD?
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Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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That's a very sharp right turn. David like I suppose more than Floyd.
Have to see what it shows at 11pm but the new models are making people nervous and with good reason.
Wish I was confused.... not liking what I am seeing but there is plenty of time for things to change so keep watching.
Rarely do you get to see a storm this beautiful out in the ocean spin, hope he spins down before land.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
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Well, we've been thinking this might be a little buzz-saw like Andrew. However, the eyewall in the last few hours has really gotten much larger...probably 10-12 miles....and in addition...it's a perfect circle. I think Ike is merely getting larger...and it's expanding eyewall might be the reason for a somewhat slower wind speed.
I don't like the looks of this at all......Look for additional strengthening....a cat 5 is down the road...imho
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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the 5pm update of ike offers no assurance to south florida residents. the computer models are tight and its moved west, as projected by users on here. all i can say is i had a bad hunch. we should start to feel effects sunday night as the local weathermen said.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Eric Blake wrote a pretty good discussion in the 5PM update, noticing the shift westward too, some even going as far south as into Cuba. This is all possible still. I don't envy this forecast, though, it's really difficult to start throwing the cone of a major hurricane toward land.
Eric was one of the first people to get Hurricane advisories up on the internet (ATWC.org) -- or at least an organized way-- so I'm probably a little biased in his favor. He's also a very good forecaster, and one of the younger ones there.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Miami across Florida into the Gulf or south to Cuba and into the Gulf; both bad scenerios but looking more probable. Since the models are trending more that way we'll have to see.
What are the chances of Ike getting bigger? Right now the hurricane winds only go out 45 miles?
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Quote:
we should start to feel effects sunday night as the local weathermen said.
When the storm is forecast to be SE of the Bahamas? I don't think so... other then ocean swells and rip currents Ike's effects on South FL will not arrive until late Mon/early Tues based on the current forecast. Check any of various wind field products to confirm this. Given Ike's small nature it might be well into Tues before we feel TS level winds. Once again this is based on the current forecast, storm size & intensity which we all know could change.
The grouping of the models towards S FL is not good, however I noticed in addition to shifting west a few shifted to the south putting Ike down into Cuba. The front moving thru the central US doesn't look like its digging very deep so I'm not buying the southerly track or a recurve out to sea solutions just yet. The good news is that Hanna left some cooler water behind that Ike must go thru, thus some weaken before landfall should occur.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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Bev
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
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I just looked at all historical tracks from 1920 to the present for all Cat 4&5 hurricanes in the Atlantic that eventually made on the southeast US coast (not necessarily at those strengths).
The good news is that according to the historical data at the ibis site, no Cat 4/5 hurricane has ever been as far north as Ike is at this point and managed to make landfall in Fla, GA, SC, or NC. The bad news is that hurricanes will continue to make history, so there's always a first. 
Isabel came very close to being as far north as Ike. And both Dora and Andrew, were both as far north as Ike, where he is predicted to be tomorrow. They both swung up from the south toward the north and continued further north while Ike is predicted to be pushed well south of their tracks. But Ike will be the farthest north at this longitude if he makes landfall. Interesting!
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Never use a long word when a diminutive one will do.
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iso
Unregistered
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Quote:
The good news is that Hanna left some cooler water behind that Ike must go thru, thus some weaken before landfall should occur.
over 2F drop in a little over 12 hours on the east Bahamas buoy that Hannah passed by within 125 miles:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046
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iso
Unregistered
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Locally (just north of the Cape up to New Smyrna Beach) in the first 4 days of September I've measured surf wt's from 80-83F (Today was 83).
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Another model trend I'm noticing is that Ike may slow down a lot as it approaches Florida. The thought of a major slowing down near or on the coast of Florida after Fay is not one I want to see, so we'll forget that for now. It's not all likely,
Either it could slam into Cuba (Like the and HRWF show tonight) or head just north and enter the Gulf, Get near or over florida (If it gets near the "ooh it may turn" Floyd-esque event may happen, better for Florida, worse for points North. Or it could just flat out slow down and slowly crawl over Florida into the Gulf (If the trough gets weaker, this is possible), but unlike Fay, as a much stronger storm.
And what I hope happens, it could go out to sea, but with the trends today, that looks less likely right now unfortunately.
Still the probabilities for any of the above actually happening are pretty low, and I'm not going to guess outside of tossing these up. It may wind up doing something crazy like diving south too.
There's the model round up tonight.
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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 256
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
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Looks to me, with the latest satelite image and loop, that Ike has started to make his turn to the southwest.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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looks west to me... don't see any southern component personally
but moving back and forth so fast between links I'm getting dizzy
models aren't making me happy
i'll check again when i get back from the store.. if there is any food left
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 256
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
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Notice the flattening that is ocurring on the Water Vapor loop on the northeast quadrant. My eyes may be tricking me, but I see a turn with a southerly component is happening or just about to happen. I may be wrong and I will stand corrected if so.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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I agree with Dan...I don't quite see the southern component yet, but I do see the Northerly component is gone and the flattening on the NE side of the storm.
The other thing is, if the SW turn does start this soon, it is before the forecast to do so and will keep Ike from going over Hanna's waters for a couple of extra days and I think by then that the waters won't be nearly as cool as they could be.
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jessiej
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 26
Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl 26.02N 80.33W
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Here's a link to the European model. It is showing Ike going thru Western Cuba and making landfall in the Central Gulf.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...8090412!!!step/
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
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How has that european model performed in the past? Ike is the first storm of the season that has caused me any real concern. Ike looks to be trouble for Florida. Anyone guessing how the models are going to tend on this one in a day or so? Right now, it looks like Florida better take notice.
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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The has preformed rather well this season. I have myself favored it for the past 3 years or so and this season it has pretty much run the Super off the road (what I am told), I don't see the stuff... Read the products and just be prepared. The is the very best at what they do, and the Official ones to do it.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
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I'm starting to get that deer in the headlights feeling. Every site I vist has the same tone. We need to collectively stay calm. This is why I would rather live in a hurricane prone area than a tornado active area. We still have time to watch and prepare. The cone of possible center locations at 120 hrs is huge. The problem I am having is the improvement in track accuracy over the years. We have already started having conversations about moving critical documents from our construction trailer, if the current senario pans out it certainly won't survive. Looking at synoptics right now the pattern seems to me to be far less complicated compared with Hanna's movement. The main influence on IKE is the strength of the ridge building (which the models seem to have a handle on) as compared with the variety of issues Hanna has faced - outflow from Gustav, strong shear from ULL to the North, weak steering currents.
We are looking at a strong storm projected to be in our back yard in a few days and everyone needs to stay prepared. From Cuba to the Carolinas and the Gulf coast down the road if IKE decides on that route.
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Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage
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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 256
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
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My prediction is that Ike will be just south of the projected path at 0600 UTC.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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i couldnt agree more. im starting to get the opinion that if ike hits florida isnt as important as where in florida will ike make landfall. for us floridians thats what we should be working on at this moment. a general opinion that it is going to hit has been formed. lets try to figure out where now, it will make landfall within the next couple of days and help everyone prepare.
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
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For the heck of it, even realizing it's a bit too early, I looked at my County's EOC page and below is what I saw!
It's called Hurrtrak Advanced and shows the probabilities of Ike hitting my area. It's in .pdf format and am not sure if it will show on my post an an attachment.
Well I am sorry as I'm trying to include it as .pdf and apparently that won't work on this site.
I live in Saint Lucie County, Florida with major towns of Port Saint Lucie and Fort Pierce; and am about 40 minutes north of West Palm Beach.
Okay, I was at least able to provide the link for my EOC's probability map. And on my end when I click on to the highlighted "Ike" word, it then takes me to the .pdf graph of which days will have what kind of wind in my area. Hopefully you can view this, too.
http://www.stlucieco.gov/eoc/storm_map.htm
Edited by ltpat228 (Thu Sep 04 2008 09:58 PM)
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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And as everyone can see from that last post....Ike has just as much a chance of going south and hitting cuba as it does of hitting Florida! Keep watching, but don't freak out yet....
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Ike has been moving due west from what I can tell, he looks to be just south of the 's next forecast point by about the width of his inner core (eye wall diameter). As noted by others the NE quad is feeling the push already, so a WSW motion should begin as forecast, just slightly eariler. It will be interesting to see if the shifts the cone slightly south to compensate. And if that's the case then UKMET & are both wrong already, however this far out such a small tweaks means very little. The only good thing about such a well formed hurricane is the eye is clearly defined thus tracking any movement is much easier.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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flhurcnwtchr
Unregistered
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what is sctsvb saying about all of this with ike? does he have a special website that we can get on his consensus? any input is greatly appreciated.. thanks all
Register then PM him your questions.
Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Sep 04 2008 10:23 PM)
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St_Petersburg_Layman
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Loc: 27.78N 82.68W
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I have lurked on this website for a few years and really appreciate all the information from the laymen to the mets. First time I have ever felt the need to post so here it goes. A couple of days ago the trend in the models started showing the southerly component with a northwesterly movement into FL. My fear at that time was that the trend would continue and actually move further west. The recent has Ike slamming Cuba then turning north and then northeasterly towards the FL gulf coast. The recent HWRF has Ike running through the striaghts and then making the same northern and then northeastern turn. I hope this does not turn out to be another trend but I fear it may be. St. Pete/Clearwater/Tampa would be destroyed by a storm on that path and strength.
Once again, thanks for all the information and I look forward to learning more.
Edited by St_Petersburg_Layman (Thu Sep 04 2008 10:32 PM)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Very good point, the eye is so wide open currently he is easy to follow.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html
and yeah.. just a drop perhaps of the forecast point..which is no big deal but they have been hitting the points perfectly, not happy its to the south of it... or close to south of it. See how the next few frames come in.
ships model brings it way too close to miami/fll
yeah, when the little kids are tracking, watching and everyone is talking there is a fatalistic feel about this, especially because the was sooo good with Gustav's track from far out
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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iso
Unregistered
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my children's babysitter, a 3rd generation resident of east central florida, always mentions the july 1926 hurricane (came up the east coast from south florida, nearly wiped the then thriving town of scottsmoor in north brevard county off the map) when talking about hurricanes. some of the tracks so far this year look similar to that busy year for florida:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/82/1926_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Yup. Good observation.
Cat 4s everywhere. Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas slammed. Not many years like 26.. thankfully.
Strong high that year and this year.
right now the 11pm has the hurricane over Miami Tuesday night..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 130
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
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I can't believe that after spending three days under Faye, and dodging the Hanna bullet Florida is now smack in the middle of the 5 day cone for a major hurricane. With the exception of the LBAR which has Ike going southwest, all the other models seem to agree that this time Florida is going to get it.  
I guess that there still is a chance we might be spared. The 11PM advisory says: THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE ...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UNTIL IT BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM. But I still have a bad feeling about this one....
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Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
Distros: Debian, Xubuntu, Mint
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 224
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
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All in Florida need to be on the watch for this one....it is giving me a sinking feeling (don't know how to quantify that....a tropical depression). this is one case where I hope the models are NOT as accurate as they were with Gustav. They pegged him hitting central Gulf Coast quite a distance out. As a side note, has anyone noticed the new satellite enhancements that the has included on it's satellite page. We now get Funktop, RGB, rainbow....just a couple of things they never had on that page before. nice of them. OH and that 1926 comparison is scary. My dad always recounted he stories HIS dad told of that hurricane (I am 3rd gen floridian) and how he was part of gangs of men who had to bury the drowned out in what they call "the Glades' around Lake Okeechobee......That whole plot map looks eerily like many of this year's storms. One going across the south end from southeast like Fay, one into Louisiana, couple curling to the east and one that looks suspiciously like what Ike is projected to do. OK...time to test the generator!! Buckle up everyone.....going to be an interesting weekend....and I am NOT talking about football!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2012 Season Prediction: 16/8/3
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Yeah, oh what stories that generation had to tell on the 26 Cane. Yet, they didn't understand hurricanes and always referred to it as the First Storm and the Second Storm in articles. Except real old timers. My great-great-grandparents lived in the Keys, KW... my grandmother was only afraid of Cape Verde storms.. for a good reason. Though they were in Miami by 26 and 35.
Ike has spikes on all sides, bands.. long ones more visible tonight than last night. And, its raining lightly in Miami tonight from Hanna.
See what the models show next... good luck. Heard Jim Cantore talking tonight about the GOM scenario, caught my attention...
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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This storm is still five days out but i was also comparing a possibility track that ike might take similar to what hurricane donna once did in 1960. The possibility is there
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Donna_1960_track.png
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Bev
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
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The great Okeechobee Hurricane hit in 1928, killing 2500+ when the dike around the lake failed. The "new" dike is now 70 years old and local news reports from the area are that the army corps of engineers started releasing water from the lake today despite a two year record level drought to "relieve the stress on the 70 year old structure". Faye replenished the lake to normal levels, but apparently they are preparing for a "just in case" scenario.
I too, have heard the stories first hand about that disaster. My grandmother worked for a doctor in Clewiston when it struck. They tagged for a few days, but finally gave up and had large funeral pyres. Incredible to think that wasn't so long ago. She's still living to tell about it.
Okeechobee to Begin Pulse Releases
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/palmbeach/sfl-0903lakeo,0,6765361.story
1928 Okeechobee Hurricane track (it was quite a bit further south at this point than Ike is now)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1928_Okeechobee_hurricane_track.png
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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Very good points! And you're right; major hurricanes tend to create and/or modify the environments which they're in. For the moment Ike is a small hurricane, and is likely to be weakened by the shear which is now inhibiting outflow on it's north and west sides. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, Hanna spent a vacation down in the Turks and cooler SSTs should be a given, and God knows after this season why anybody in their right mind would live down there to start with; talk about a few islands with bullseyes painted on them! There are 3 models in the Florida Straits camp and 3 models in the Bahamas camp, and with each successive run the official forecast has been nudged west. Recent satellite loops show Ike now moving just south of due west. There simply isn't enough data at Day 4 plus to know where Ike is going other than there will be a COL between the mid continental ridge and bermuda ridge and Florida and the Florida panhandle in the middle and a shortwave/longwave trough axis to the north. Ike is no doubt certainly to slow down given this type of an environment and time and time again has their track guidance down and I see no reason to question otherwise. Once again, good points! Y'all take care!
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1369
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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agree with ya Bill... from what i am seeing in the model data... by the time Ike gets to the south Florida/Cuba area... steering currents will be weak AGAIN... i'm kinda curious how far west ike will get before he begins his turn north. was thinking it was going to be around the east coast of Florida, but now with the next ridge to set up middle next week may have other plans.... and with a weak trough dropping down to the SE US and swinging by.... GOING to be an interesting weakend for sure! Interesting 00Z tonight
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 05 2008 02:03 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Its too early to know forsure, but right now its looking like a good threat to the Florida Keys. This is just south of the but north of the . The eastern cone looks like Paradise island Bahamas-Freeport Bahamas-Just off the east coast along 80W. The center cone takes it to near or just west of Andros Island-Central and Northern Keys and up the Florida Peninsula. The western outline is now interacting with Cuba-west of Key West- off the west coast of Florida- Towards Biloxi and east to the Florida Panhandle.
This isnt a forecast, just speculation and Ill make my first offical forecast later on Saturday since then it will be 3 days away from a possible landfall. We have plenty of time. We need to see more Data go into the models, which model is running best (GFDL or or Compromise them), also the pattern over the continental U.S. for early next week. If this interacts with Cuba, it will be much weaker and may move more west into the extreme NW carribean (ala ) or the ridge may not be as orientated in the NE-SW and be more E-W and keep IKE more westerly towards Andros Island by late Sunday.
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
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Great, just great. I woke up at 5am on the money to sound of dripping.
I have a small leak in my roof apparently. It has filled the cooler I've placed underneath it up one inch since that time. And it's only coming down in two places one drop at a time...although one right after the other. BOO!
I hope this rain lets up later today so that I can make a run to Home Depot for a few gallons of tar.
Just an FYI....my neighbor came home last night all excited that Home Depot had the metal shutter panels on sale for 60% off. I think maybe I'll get some shutters. Hopefully I won't need them for Ike but atleast I'll have them. Those shutters are the only thing missing from my hurricane preparedness "kit".
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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 256
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
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My short term prediction: Like last night, Ike will again be south of the next forecast point, which is 18UTC, This will cause another adjustment to the longer term forecast track to the south. As for the longer term track, it is still up in the air. There are not as many variables in play as was with Hanna and Fay, but it is still to early to tell. All eyes on both coasts of Florida should be watching this guy over the weekend.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)
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Patrick99
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
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Wow, this is going to be a close call here in Miami. It would seem that no matter what happens, we are going to get *something*; it's just a question of degrees. The possibility of a 3-4 on a 1926 type track isn't something I really want to contemplate, with my family in the Gables.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
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To all FYI an excerpt from the HPC this morning also attached latest micro pass from around 8:27 AM EDT. IKE is actually showing very strong stucture at the surface on the North side. You can clearly make out the eye below the dense overcast.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
441 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
VALID 12Z TUE SEP 09 2008 - 12Z FRI SEP 12 2008
MAJOR HURRICANE IKE IS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE WEATHER FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN EXPECTED TRACK THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH AN
ANTICIPATED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK USED WAS
MODIFIED TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE ONGOING TPC TRACK AND ONGOING MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUITY.
THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED AGAIN WITH AGAIN AT 16Z...IN TIME FOR
THE AFTERNOON PRESSURES ISSUANCE.
Edited by craigm (Fri Sep 05 2008 09:13 AM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Current trend on IKE is that it is actually south of the forecast track right now.
That will tend toward a general south and west shift in the cone, but the east side of the cone will still be off shore, IMO. That is because the weakness in between the two high pressure systems steering the system may be relativly more pronounced, especially if Hanna gains strenght today and goes into Cat 1 status for a while. Hanna is performing beyond expectations from yesterday's appearance and the LLC has tucked in beneath the convection, and it looks decidedly tropical rather than extra tropiclal as it was described yesterday, so there is a chance the weakness will be pronounced enough to keep IKE off any land. However, if IKE does not slow down and stays south of the current track the odds on an off. shore solution go down. I ageree with Scott that it will be Saturday p.m. to get any confidence.
One more thing on the confidence...NHC uses all the models and has consensus models...once they lock into the concensus that track is usually pretty tight, especially for 72 hours. I have also noted track is not ever too far from the HRWF or in reaching the concensus.
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doug
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Agree with the others, Ike is further south of his forecast position so we should see another shift of the cone, the models are trending south as well.
Now once he reaches the islands he'll be in an area of weak steering currents and as we've seen with Fay and Hanna this could cause problems. However if he continues to track south he might hit Cuba sparing us in FL from hurricane force winds. The only thing that worries me is a NW turn will occur at some point... so we're back to the timing issue: a sooner turn brings him into Palm Beach, a later turn puts him into the middle Keys, an even later turn and this becomes a GOM storm! Just keep in mind since he is small storm there would major differences in the effects your local city would feel depending on the local of final landfall.
Currently Ike is an area of some NNW shear so figure on drop down to Cat 2 status and more southerly track today. And as stated before: Monday seems to be the key day to figure out if Ike will effect Florida or not.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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iso
Unregistered
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Hannah a little over 100 miles due east of my location this morning:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=MLB&loop=yes
I'm observing intermittent moderate to occassionally heavy rain with a steady NNW wind of 18 mph, gusting to 30 in the heavier "squalls". Measured nearly 1" of rain since 5 am this morning, not good for the ongoing flooding in the St. Johns River basin near SR 46/Lake Harney area.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Messy models all in all. Tampa isn't out of it.. no can't say that, neither is the whole Gulf. Really does seem a Florida storm one way or the other.. either a direct hit or we get caught in the northern part of the storm and get a lot of wind and rain.
By the way, Collins Avenue in Miami was flooded driving to work today from non-stop rain from Hanna. This isn't a location comment on my weather as much as a concern that Miami and parts of Florida may not have time to dry out before the rains from Ike hit this region. A real 1 2 3 punch round here it seems.
So... beginning to buy into the bigger dip and the slow sharp NW movement later. Rather not be directly hit by a Cat 3 or 4 but a real possibilty.
Hanna seems to be taking the west side of her cone I think from watching radar imagery not just sat and Ike is a drop south I think which portends a more SW movement I think earlier rather than later but for how long? Maybe her weather mass is more to the left but either way her weather is what's going to cause a mess up and down the Eastern Seaboard.
Where is the trough? It's weak now.. I don't see the real steering mechanism that can lift Ike before landfall or crawl down through the Straits.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.html
Show me the front that is going to take Ike away before Florida.. I don't see it.
Watching and waiting for their 11 AM ..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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iso
Unregistered
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sorry for my last post in this lounge- it should've been in the Hannah conditions section. (got caught up in the moment with heavy rain falling)
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PensacolaWX
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
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Well it looks like Ike is already on a WSW track ahead of schedule while looking at the latest satellite passes and will pass well south of the forecasted track. For us gulf coast residents, I don't like that fuzzy feeling I get when it looks like a storm will make it into the Gulf. I hate to wish another beating on the people of Cuba, but it should rip the storm apart if it interacts with Cuba from East to West.
But the latest model keeps Ike a Cat 2 all the way over a long trek over Cuba. How is that possible???
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Kris
Unregistered
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Hi Folks,
I've been watching this forum for two days now. Hurricane Ike is starting to cause some stress for me and my wife. We live in Tampa FL and are also scheduled to go on a Cruise to the Bahamas on Thursday the 11th. At this point I am hoping this storm misses FL all together but obviously its too early to know for sure. I'd like to pose a question to the experts here. If Ike does come to FL would the thought be more that it's an eastern or western coast threat ?
Thanks
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Ike is way south of the tropical forecasted points right now.. can't wait to see the 11 am.
Check out the wv loop, really about to be pushed sw i think... or wsw
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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they projected a wsw movement in the forecast path then projected it to level out to the west then turn a bit. i have had goes e infared running for the past 24 hours. i see the slightest south movement. i dont see anything remarkable though. the 11am will help us.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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The 11 am is out...as suggested, Ike is moving south of the projected path at about 260 degrees. Also to be noted, although sheer is supposed to affect Ike for the next 24 hours, it should taper off after that. Also, on the path Ike is projected to take now, the Forecast Discussion from the has stated specifically that the waters are warm and they do not see remnants of cooler water from Hanna being in the area previously.
I'm starting to think the model that takes Ike into the same area as Gus is going to be the more accurate model.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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the 11am came out, it is further south. this is a bit comforting. however models are kinda still all over the place. so for a breif moment, south east florida can breathe a bit until we further updates.
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 92
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Quote:
the 11am came out, it is further south. this is a bit comforting. however models are kinda still all over the place. so for a breif moment, south east florida can breathe a bit until we further updates.
Less for you, more for the GOM.
A CAT 3 hitting Mobile to Panama would pull every power truck out of Louisiana.
And don't expect any help from anywhere else because of Hanna.
And Florida gets it's gas from NOLA.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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I'm not relaxing a bit. Given the high degree of accuracy of the 's track forecasts over the last few years, everyone in FL should be watching Ike and be in pre-prep mode. The next few days will tell more definitely where and how strong Ike will be. Personally? I don't like what my gut is telling me on this one.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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okihabu
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Spring Hill, Florida 28.41N 82.53W
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I hope you are right Mike, I am hoping for the best for our area. I have a poultry farm I own and movin all these animals wont be easy. I just would like to knoe the odds of Ike hittin the west coast of Fl. and the Tampa area? I can see what says about the path. But my concern is how fast he moves west before going north. I dont see anything slowing him down.besides this year is starting to remind me of 2004. My sister-in-law is still po'd at me for . Same name and on my birhtday, went to orlando and and well you know the rest. So I would like to know some odds on him.
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Chuck Good
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
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Well...we've got a 2:00 update to the advisory:
000
WTNT64 KNHC 051748
TCUAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008
AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FROM THE 1100 AM ADVISORY.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
We should now start getting 3 hourly fixes soon.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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looking at the updated model runs from weather, there is only one model that has Ike hitting the East side of Florida now...the consensus model is moving much more towards the Western GOM. I think there will be a fairly significant change in the model at the 5pm EDT advisory.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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I just dont see how this storm would even get to the middle of the gulf of mexico starting on the early parts of next week as a trough of low pressure is going to come from the west and ike is going to start to feel the weakening in the high pressure at about maybe 80 west or so ??? maybe it well make it into the gulf at about 83 west is the farthest i say but most of the models have a turn going on. i live in orlando wftv channel 9 meteorologist said its going to have to make a turn at some point but wasnt sure where it would happened I hate to say it but it definitely looks like a florida storm !
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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Someone posted this link back on page 2 of this thread...
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2008090500!!/
That is the best way I have seen Ike's track explained so far. It really gives you a birds eye view of all of the different pressure centers and other activity that will be affecting Ike's track and why he will make it into the GOM.
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hurriance expert
Unregistered
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check out the latest model it has it more of a bend to the state of florida and as for the hwrf model its doing the same i'm not surprise to see this at all either like i said earlier.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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i still can not believe its still going west. they projected the south movement so much sooner then today. to be honest im not sure anymore on the path. i think the 5pm will help us out alot. i think we are having a hard time working with this storm simply because of the update schedule. shortly they should throw warnings up and which case that will help us as far as getting that update every 3 hours. right now its hard to tell though because we dont have much to work with. the storms moving so quickly and we dont have updates till every 6 hours on the clock. i just find it incredible that yesterday at 11am they had it nailing broward county and now they got it plowing over the keys.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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The latest model also recurves the storm into florida by the time it gets into the gulf pretty scary stuff there !!!
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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has anyone else happen to notice the has updated their plots and a lot of them have now made changes to the north? just earlier they were all agreeing for the most part on that southward track.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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5pm is out....first recon info in, basically confirmed the projected strength, track is now at 255 degrees. again shifted their track south and suggested further shifting south or west may be needed in the next day or so. There is still a clear split between those models who see a weakening in the ridge that would allow for the NNW turn just West of Florida, and those models that see the ridge holding stronger and forcing Ike to the West/Central GOM. We probably wont' know if the weakness will be there until Late Saturday or Early Sunday as Ike approaches the Turks and Caicos.
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Chris Bryant
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
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A question about the ridge steering Ike- when it turns to the North, is it likely to turn North *and* East, or simply trend NWish?
I really don't want to wishcast, but.... I really don't want to see the NOLA/S La. folks get another, worse hit (I have family in Baton Rouge).
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Chris Bryant
DeLand, Florida
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tracerrx
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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This maybe a newbie question, so please forgive.
How long until the Recon that was collected today from the hurricane hunter aircraft, is incorporated into the models? From my understanding, historically, the accuracy of the models is greatly improved after this information has been obtained.
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docrod
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
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Question please - does any out there have a link for storm surge models for the Florida Keys? Right now it looks like a right front quad hit for me. My house (oceanside - Key Colony Beach mm 51) survived Donna (1960 - three feet underwater) and slightly flooded in Georges. I'm taking a break from prep which I will finish tomorrow.
I know I can't do much about a flooding surge but more or less curiosity. - thanks in advance.
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
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Very frustrating. I'm still not sold on the more southerly track yet. I usually do not get sold one way or the other until MOST ALL the models come into some semblance of harmony. Right now, as it stands, we've got two different camps...so for right now, I'll split the difference between the two.
I still think that unfortunately, we'll have to wait until late tomorrow to really start "feelin' the love" with the models and forecasted track.
I'm going to wishcast here and go to bed tonight and wish/pray like heck that I'll wake up and somehow the shear will have eaten him alive and he's all gone! (I know, not likely but, a girl's gotta have a dream!) 
Man, I hope the Keys start evacuating post haste. Like say 4am for visitors/tourists and Sunday A.M. for residents. I know it took us 7 hours just to get from Key West to Key Largo during Fay. We left at 9am on Sunday. Brutal.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 434
Loc: Tampa
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Not sure if this is what you are looking for or not;
http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/index.htm
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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docrod
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
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Quote:
Very frustrating. I'm still not sold on the more southerly track yet. I usually do not get sold one way or the other until MOST ALL the models come into some semblance of harmony. Right now, as it stands, we've got two different camps...so for right now, I'll split the difference between the two.
I still think that unfortunately, we'll have to wait until late tomorrow to really start "feelin' the love" with the models and forecasted track.
I'm going to wishcast here and go to bed tonight and wish/pray like heck that I'll wake up and somehow the shear will have eaten him alive and he's all gone! (I know, not likely but, a girl's gotta have a dream!)
Man, I hope the Keys start evacuating post haste. Like say 4am for visitors/tourists and Sunday A.M. for residents. I know it took us 7 hours just to get from Key West to Key Largo during Fay. We left at 9am on Sunday. Brutal.
Mandatory evac for visitors 9am Sat; for us conchs staged evac starting at 8am Sun; please don't clogged up the road for me please ...  - take care.
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KimKeyWest
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Loc: 24.56N 81.79W
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I think this is what you're looking for: http://redcross.tallytown.com/map/Surge-MonroeCounty.pdf
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docrod
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
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Quote:
Not sure if this is what you are looking for or not;
http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/index.htm
Hi - thanks - I've seen this page - I should have been clearer - sorry. There is a model I believe that will forecast storm surge for specific storm events; there was something under development on a "tides" website (Fed gov site) about two years but I cannot find that link or if it has morphed into something else. At that time the link had experimental storm surge information on hypothetical storms. The link would be active then inactive.
Lacking this site and web page that I did see about two years ago; are there storm surge estimates well ahead of time or are they only available hours before the strike?
The second storm surge we had from was amazing and caught many of us in the Keys by surprise.
- thanks again - Rod
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Most of the models end up with, at least, Ike paralleling the Gulf coast of FL. If that plays out, then a very large area of FL will be impacted. I still don't like what my gut is telling me. At any rate, if Ike enters the GOM, someone is going to suffer a major to severe hurricane. The models do cluster along the forecast with a couple of outliers to the East and West. The , which has been fairly accurate, shows the course going south over Cuba and then up the FL Gulf coast which would lead to a weaker storm in the Gulf. The shows Ike crossing South FL and then recurving to the NE into Tampa Bay. I have to keep pointing out that everyone in the cone needs to be on alert. This is an evolving situation and things could change radically on short notice. I'm going in to work tomorrow morning to unload an emergency truck load of hurricane supplies - my day off.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Looking at the various water vapor loops you can see how the cone make prefect sense: ahead of Ike is a flow from the NE pushing him SW, then there is the flow (or wake) behind Hanna coming from up the SE over Cuba. You can clearly see the ridge building using the Eastern US view here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html Also visible is the front that squeezing Hanna and accelerating her N currently and will push her NE rapidly after landfall. This front doesn't look to be deep enough to push Ike back E if (or when) he reaches the Gulf unless he move much further N. In other words if he reaches the Gulf the track would be more towards the Panhandle then Ft. Myers/Tampa, but that is WAY too far down the road to determine at this time.
The current flow over FL is still SE but it seems the ridge is building in quicker thus the reason for Ike moving SW. My worry is the weakness over the southern Bahamas/NE Cuba that will give Ike a chance to sneak NW a bit sooner. The models favor the ridge building in strongly behind Hanna and thus keeping Ike south while he continues to marches west. This solution seems very likely to me so I'd say the track looks good for now, just watch for Ike's position relative to the forecast solution come Monday - if he is N of his forecast position then South FL should be on alert. Regardless of his position the Keys have to be in full on prep mode by Monday since Ike will come close enough regardless of any track errors.
The good news is (like Andrew) so far Ike has a small hurricane force wind field (45 miles presently) so a track thru the lower Keys will only produce Cat 1/2 effects on the upper Keys, Dade county might only see sustained TS level winds and Broward would feel only TS gusts. Keep in mind these are just my uneducated quick estimates, PLEASE check the various wind field products issued by the to see what to except once we are under a watch/warning situation.
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
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Below is the link for Saint Lucie County, Florida's Emergency Operations Center.
I check it frequently and just noticed on their Situation Report link on their Quick Links menu that they are activating the EOC's Hurricane Information Hotline beginning 0800 Saturday, August 6th.
http://www.stlucieco.gov/eoc/situation_report.htm
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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IKE may have begun a more westerly motion, now that it is regaining structure. The eye is reappearing more centraly located in the midst of the dense overcast. The key is if that flow over the Bahamas becomes more zonal, E to W.
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doug
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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It appears that the shear over Ike has begun to relax since the outflow on the north side is improving and the storm's overall structure is becoming symmetrical again. We should begin to see an eye redevelop soon. It still looks to me that the motion is slightly South of due West.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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Coastal Worried
Unregistered
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first time poster here. Love the site. Rookie wannabe weather chaser. Live on the coast of Pinellas county. Is this one I have to worry about or are we out of the woods with this thing?
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finz
Unregistered
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Hey Guys i live in miami....I just began to notice a west track from ike.....how will this affect the path and will the path more south or north
ps can u send me the link to the computermodels page.....cause i wanna see that too:)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Re: Coastal Worried and finz
Be ready to get ready or evacuate. Hopefuly, Ike will stay away, but it is way too early to tell. Sunday and Monday will be the time that things will become more definite. I'd be making your plans now and be ready to execute them on relatively short notice.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
Edited by MichaelA (Fri Sep 05 2008 07:29 PM)
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finz
Unregistered
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yea and to make it worse...I live on the beach(miami beach)....so yea.....Since ike is moving more west than wsw,will the path change?
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coastal worried
Unregistered
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I've been in Pinellas county 20 years and the storms always seem to turn. Is Pinellas situated in such a manner that storms just don't come here for some geographic reason? Like it's hard for them to make the turn around the keys and then hit Pinellas???
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Nothing special, just lucky, was supposed to come to the Tampa Bay region before he made that hard right turn. There have been much weaker systems which have come very close to the Tampa Bay area, though in recent times. If I'm correct, Hurricane Easy in 1950 was the last major hurricane to affect Tampa Bay. It came ashore just North of the region (worst case scenario for storm surge in Tampa Bay). In direct answer to your question, yes they can come here.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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docrod
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
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Ike still has a south component to it's motion but yes - it's mostly west. Ike is about to enter those waters that Hanna stirred up for a few days. I'm beginning to think that the Keys are not going to get a "shield" from Cuba. We will soon know if Hanna has any effect. - take care
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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looks like the 18Z takes Ike farther west into the Gulf with its eyes in the panhandle/mobile region...the takes it in the same general direction but stalls it in the gulf and the heads it northeast, but the seems to stall systems often after 4 days..did it with Gustav and fay, and the stalls never happened, the storms continued on the track
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Both seem to be trending farther south over or even south of Cuba. Still a major to extreme storm in the eastern Gulf is not good. The HWRF has also chimed in with a track over Cuba.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
Edited by MichaelA (Fri Sep 05 2008 08:09 PM)
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chaserwannabe
Unregistered
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The advisory is late.....I have bad mojo about this storm
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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It's out now...basically a carbon copy of the previous advisory...literally almost no change in anything.
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watchinout
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
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Been looking at models, tracks, and graphs and adding it together with what some of yall are saying and it looks like theres a possibility of Ike passing through the Florida Straits into the Gulf and making a curve into or near the Cedar Key area . Wondering what the rest of you think?
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
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Just tuned in to and met on duty now...said he would not be at all surprised to see in the 11pm udate the S component removed from Ike's current WSW movement. I also heard Dr. Steve Lyons on a little bit earlier...I really like him, no fuss no muss, just lays it out.
He kept mentioning the more westerly component and the whole timing thing...
All in all, what I personally took away from watching them both was that they don't seem completely sold (yet) on the models that forecast the extreme south track, south of cuba senario.
Far more worrisome for the Keys and South Fla. east and west and --d forbid the Gulg.
I'm still on the fence about putting up the shutters I just purchased in the pouring rain this morning....I"m really leaning towards....just put em' up. What's the worst that can happen? I (we) in SoEFla get spared and I get practice...I'll take it!
Edited by native (Fri Sep 05 2008 08:55 PM)
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docrod
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
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Quote:
Been looking at models, tracks, and graphs and adding it together with what some of yall are saying and it looks like theres a possibility of Ike passing through the Florida Straits into the Gulf and making a curve into or near the Cedar Key area . Wondering what the rest of you think?
Way to early to say yet for you - you have time - just have materials in line and be ready. My final prep day is tomorrow morning but I'm in the FL Keys. But I have everything I need - for water, food, evac, gas, generator check, home concacts, .. etc .... just get prepared.
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docrod
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
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Hi - haven't seen that one yet (updated HWRF) - we (I) depend so much on Cuba this time of year. - thanks
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docrod
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
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Quote:
Hi - haven't seen that one yet (updated HWRF) - we (I) depend so much on Cuba this time of year. - thanks
Good grief, that is a HUGE change for me. I expect a long night and long Saturday. - again - thanks for pointing that out - Rod
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GlenJohnson
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 48
Loc: Waldo Florida 29.79N 82.17W
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Cone is huge. What do you think the odds of it swinging North to Jacksonville are? I know it sounds silly, but everyone said Fay was heading out into the Gulf. Practically went over the top of my house. Luckily, it wasn't that strong, which is why I like living inland.
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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2013 Forecast - 20,12,6
Edited by GlenJohnson (Fri Sep 05 2008 10:43 PM)
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 224
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
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Quote:
I'm still on the fence about putting up the shutters I just purchased in the pouring rain this morning....I"m really leaning towards....just put em' up. What's the worst that can happen? I (we) in SoEFla get spared and I get practice...I'll take it!
I put up the shutters for Charlie and he swung inland missing me....after I hacked my way to my parents partially destroyed house, it didn't bother me a bit that I had put up the shutters for nothing!! I think you have the right idea.....just put them up...time yourself so you know your window in the future and count your blessings if it was a complete waste of time!! If this thing gets to the key and still aimed at us in the cone...and is level 3/4, I will put mine up guaranteed. (I can do it in 2 hours!!!)
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2012 Season Prediction: 16/8/3
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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Well things are looking much improved for all of you folks in Florida (not the keys, they are probably still going to get atleast some of Ike), but the latest advisory shifts the track south and west again. The forecast discussion says most of the reliable models take Ike down near or over the north coast of Cuba. The 4-5 day track has also shifted more westward to point more towards the central gulf, and the discussion says it could be moved more west again as we progress over the next day or two. The next recon flight is scheduled to get to Ike near 1 am CDT (2am EDT) , so that data will give us some more information.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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IKE's impact of anything north of Palm beach looks pretty slim to none right now, but things can change.The ridge is forecasted to be stronger and thats been the assumption by the and , but now the has come along with the UKmet. If this trend continues until Sats 12Z run then its impact on Floridas east coast will be gone except the Keys.
Never underestimate the when a system is developed. Its accuracy rate is very high and was the only model just 24hrs ago that predicted a path near Cuba or into the NW Carribean. I wont make a projected landfall until Saturday. Right now my guess is that there is none in S Florida, except maybe the Keys. I Dont think the west coast of Florida will get much at all except down near Naples. Anyways things can change, but they are changing for a more and more west movement.
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coastal worried
Unregistered
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local Tampa weatherguy had the following concern: IKE passes the Keys and then slows down and basically loses it's steering currents. At this point, speculation on his part, it could possibly get pulled by a trough to the North East, impacting the West Coast of Florida.....anybody see this playing out....
www.spaghettimodels.com
seems to show a lot of models making a sharp turn Northeast across west central florida???
Comments? Thoughts??
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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right now that is speculation. There is a 10% chance it will do that and the same chance it will head towards Texas.He must of been looking at old models data from todays 12Z earlier.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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These model have been moving all over the place from west then shifting back to east. By tomorrow night into sunday we will have a better handle on these models. This track is all going to depend on that trough of low pressure coming from the west. Will it weaken the ridge enough for ike to make a nw turn and then possible ne turn ? thats my first scenario for this storm. Or would the high stay in place and drive ike to the west all the way into the gulf ? thats my second scenario. Here the trough postion where it suppose to be by at least monday http://www.accuweather.com/maps-surface....c&fday=48hr So in a way i do think ike is going to feel a weakening in the high pressure and some one from the panhandle to the west coast of florida is going to get this storm. These are my early predictions. Land fall point still to early to tell
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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as of now, like the front page of the says. dont concentrate on that center line. when we are out of that cone i can worry less. and everyone who is talking about the two high preassure systems are correct. there is a slight moment of oppourtunity for ike to make a north turn early. however it is a race against the clock. if the 2 highs meet it will form a wall and the storm will continue west. if ike beats it before the 2 systems meet it will give ike all the chance it needs to make a right turn. lets just watch it today. warnings have been issued so we got our 3 hour updates
Edited by Evan McCone (Sat Sep 06 2008 08:01 AM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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It looks as if good ole Hanna is actually effecting the depth of the high as it digs SW on its east side and how quickly the short wave coming from the west will erode the west side and how deep that will be. I guess the faster Hanna pulls NE will impact how deep the ridge will dig by tending to flatten it out the further north it goes. IKE is located just east of the apex of a very sharp point on that ridge, and the steering just west of that point is definitely wnw. As Hanna pulls out that should make the whole area a little more east to west. That could happen today before IKE actually impacts Cuba. My unskillful observations also suggest that the west side of the high will erode into the middle GOM as the trough approaches from the west. This poses a definite issue for recurvature as it increasingly seems IKE will bypass south Florida. But I am not comforted by that. I don't see IKE as a middle Gulf coast storm but more likely something east of the Mississippi River. This definitely has my attention in west central Florida as there is nothing more ominous than a strong storm being SW of our area with a probability of a future NE track.
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doug
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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From the 8am update:
ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
South Florida is still very much in the cone.Looks BETTER for us this morning,but as we all know there will be changes to the track and the models.He is still well to the south east of Florida.Given the wide cone,the is not all that confident in it's forecast.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 111
Loc: Beckley, WV
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It is simply too early to tell where Ike may end up along the US Gulf Coast. Needless to say, ANY location from Florida to Texas is a possibility. The current track brings Ike into the eastern GOM in four to five days. The margin of error for this time range is significant.
The forecast over the next few days will be complicated by Ike's interaction with Cuba. If Ike traverses the spine of Cuba for two days--as some models predict--then I can't imagine much of it surviving that journey. In this case, a severely weakened Ike would probably make it farther west than currently forecast. If Ike remains mostly over open water to the north or south of Cuba, then everything depends on the strength and orientation of the high pressure system to Ike's north. I'm inclined to believe that Ike will pass over, or to the south, of Cuba. The high pressure system over the western Atlantic really seems to be nudging Ike to the SW this morning.
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Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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look at the current animated model. it has ike going into the gulf, then a pressure system moving in from the NW pushing ike back ene towards florida... interesting stuff here.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008090606&field=850mb+Theta-E&hour=Animation
Edited by Evan McCone (Sat Sep 06 2008 08:13 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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As a Tampa resident, I dont think its coming to Tampa until it actually Does.! Tampa hasnt been hit directly since 1938 I think? I have to double check on that.I'm not saying this wont but like alot of people in the Tampa-Sarasota area, tooooo many times has the path a of hurricane suppose to track over you (within 24hrs) and the last minute it moves east of you or up to the panahandle. Of course everyone should prepare, but optimisum reigns supreme in this area.
The models shifted back some on the 6z run to the east and has a potential Florida impact on the west coast or the panhandle. Still thats 4-5days out. We need consistant runs. 12Z are next and the question is, what will they do.
I'll give my 3 day forecast later today and sunday I'll make my landfall prediction unless its more than 3 days out.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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exactly, models, and projected paths right now are sloppy at best. as others have said the isnt entirely sure what the heck is going on at this moment. that is displayed by their cone of error. too many people put their trust in that line. and i dont blame you its the National Hurricane Center. but you know when they are unsure, and you should be as well.
as all of us here (or most of us here) all know being florida residents we must rely on the dreaded "multiple possibility scenario". following weather here is stressful and tenious at best. but we have all been through this drill with long range storms. 3 or 4 factors always come into play and the long range storms are never surefire. we have a frontal boundry here, we have a pressure system there, the cone can be highly unstable, so can the projected path. we should all be used to this by now.
due to the fact the has clearly stated they are not sure of this path. i will continue to worry as if this storm will hit impact anywhere in the cone. too many factors come into play to be making hot shot projections and panicing people more than they already are.
i feel bad for the bahamas, but their hurricane warnings gives us a better idea for storm prep due to 3 hour updates.
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jf
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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Ikes decent to the south south west is slowing and even though its speed has not slowed IKE will not reach the plotted points at the 11AM update. If this trend continues the models will have a slight move to the east and maybe north. Every degree LON/LAT is critical to Florida. From the readings coming from the high pressure system to the north of IKE it seems as though there is a 50/50 chance of the high weakening just a little and allowing IKE to move more westerly before it decides whether to go into the Gulf to Cuba or Florida.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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west florida coast is absolutely in play, along with the whole gulf....again, imo, the has done a good job withn the bigger storms, they stuck with their projection for 3 days with Gustav, while others said west towards the tex border and east towards mobile...their track record on the larger storms has been very good...the and are keeping very close to the west coast of FL, but again, 4 days out....nobody knows
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 92
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Quote:
It looks as if good ole Hanna is actually effecting the depth of the high
Ike will slide along Cuba's coastline. If the eye is given a choice.
Gulfport to the Florabama Border as a Large Cat 3.
Hurricanes tend to avoid each other's "Ghost" track. Again, if given a choice. and West of NO won't be an option.
IMHO.
James
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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24 hours ago many of the models had Ike coming into SF,24 hours later they have shifted south.24 hours from now who knows.He is still 3 1/2 to 4 days away.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
Edited by ftlaudbob (Sat Sep 06 2008 09:24 AM)
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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if everyone will notice, the models are loose again, and some of them are shifting north again. surprisignly the which is always preety reliable has it making a sharp northern turn grazing the west coast. is this northern trend something that everybody will follow as the day goes on? what do they know that we dont?
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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The models have under estimated the strength & position of the high to the north from the get go... thus with every update Ike moves south. As Hanna pulls out the ridge is filling in behind her very quickly, thus Ike's chance of reaching South FL becomes less and less with each passing hour. With such a small core a brush with Cuba would weaken him, but if his eye can stay just off the coast that will not occur. In addition tracking as far south as the projects now the Keys might only get TS level winds due to the small wind field. Dade & Broward will feel almost the same effects we got from Hanna. The front sliding across the US from the west has gotten a bit deeper and pretty soon its going to be over FL which will close the door on Ike's window to turn NW over the state forcing him into the GOM. Once again just keep an eye of forecast position versus the 's projected path, it should very easy to see when (and if) Ike makes any unpredicted movement during the Monday time frame that changes the situation.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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I have to agree completely with you JMII, every single forecast discussion has talked about how the track continues to shift west and south and may need to shift more that way in future tracks as well. has been taking the northern and eastern side of the track consensus to be on the safe side for Florida and with Ike moving as far south as he has this morning and is continuing that way, I doubt that he will be able to pick up on the ridge weakness since Hanna is moving so quickly now. Hanna is pulling the ridge out with her and she will be gone before the weekend is over and Ike won't be near Cuba until Monday.
The other thing is, if you look at the models they all expect Ike's size to gain considerably over the next 2-3 days, so don't count the keys out of the stronger winds even if Ike does dip down right along Cuba.
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Curiously, looking at the 12Z newer runs of the BAMD, am slightly confused as to the odd shift to the north from previous runs??? Am looking at steering flow levels, and although the overall strong mid-Atlantic ridge may be slowly retreating eastward with time, cannot see any reason for Ike to not basically travel west ( or perhaps slightly north of west ) while grazing the Cuban coast. Any thoughts on what the BAMD might be seeing with regards to any weakness? Will be curious to see if later 12Z runs of the EURO and UK equally adjust there tracks slightly more northward too, or simply maintain a steadfast westward motion well into the Gulf and well south of the lower Keys, as their previous model runs have indicated.
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EBinTX
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.05N 95.45W
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I also agree - the sat tracks over the last three hours appear to be showing the center south of the forecast track. At 13:15 UTC the eye already looks to be south of the 18:00 forecast position. I would expect the next update to include another shift south of the near-term track guidance and possibly moving the track over Cuba out through near 72 hours. I can even see how this could end up on the south side of Cuba and then follow in Gus' recent path.
It's early but we northern GOM folks need to be watching this over the next few days.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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actually, looking at the past 24 hours of GOES-E sat loops, it looks to be going WAY south of the forecast projections. this is odd i dont even think any the models called for this strong southward movement. heck, i wouldnt be surprised if next update they have this thing moving SW it almost looks like it on the IR.
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EMS
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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Hard to see the center with the eye clouded over, but the last couple of frames on the visible satellite seem to indicate a due west movement. Could be just a wobble. If it's not, the threat to South Florida is potentially higher.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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the 11am EDT is out...
...AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS
UPWELLED BY HANNA.
Along with this more southern track though comes more weakening from being either over, or near, Cuba. Although the gulf is expected to strengthen Ike back up quickly because of the warmth of the water. The track is set at 255 degrees still, so still WSW. The discussion again specifies how the models are distinctly split into two camps right now, one that believes the ridge over the SE will stay far enough north to keep Ike moving WNW, and the other that predicts Ike will turn north into the ridge...
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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well lets all review the current wind steering flow currents that are layered. this should help give us some sort of idea. if everyone will notice, the that had ike going into the gulf and recurving, probably got it off of the futures of the wind currents, it shows a enviroment to produce that.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF
everybody check it and lets discuss it.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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that's actually one of the things that makes the models so hard to get accurate...they are basically creating a model using model data, and if the model data is inaccurate, then the resulting model will be inaccurate also.
So basically the is using the future model that was just posted, and that model is assuming that the ridge that Hanna is part of will be creating a northerly flow weakness in the high pressure over Florida. So this still fits into one of the two camps of scenarios that are possibilities at this point. Over the next 24 hours, as we see how quickly Hanna moves out and pulls the ridge with it, we will see if Ikes south movement takes it to far to follow this or not.
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 111
Loc: Beckley, WV
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The BAMD is based on the upper level wind information provided by the . So the northward shift of the 12Z BAMD gives us a hint at the 's latest prediction for the upper level steering flow. The , HWRF, , and now predict that the ridge north of Ike will be sufficiently weakened by the shortwave that will move through the eastern US to induce a more northwest to northward turn in a couple days. We'll have to wait and see if the models persist with this scenario, and if the others come aboard. If Ike is severely weakened by a long trip over Cuba, then the future path will still likely be farther west. Let's wait and see...
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Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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exactly..both the and were off by large margins 2 days out on Gustav, with the off by about 200 miles....
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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finz
Unregistered
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it looks like to me that the high pressure is weakening and ike will possible make a more west north turn over florida.....Right now it looks like its moving about due west which will make it off course of the projected path....And the models have it going more north then the previous models.....what do you guys think
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Bev
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
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Quote:
...
The forecast over the next few days will be complicated by Ike's interaction with Cuba. If Ike traverses the spine of Cuba for two days--as some models predict--then I can't imagine much of it surviving that journey. ...
There has been quite a bit of talk about relying on Cuba to weaken the storm. Common sense would lead us to believe this, the Mets like to talk of this, and to a minute degree it is true, Cuba can have some disruptive effects on a TS or Hurricane.
But all available data show the effect is transitory at best and non-existent at worst.. A storm's interaction with Cuba his little to no long term effect on its' strength at an eventual mainland strike.
If you study the historical data of every storm that ever traversed cuba, either along the spine, across the mountains, on a diagonal path, or just a glancing blow, only two in 90 years of historical data were actually weakened enough to be considered "shredded" and both of these were able to regain their pre-cuba strength.
1. Inez who bounced along Cuba's southern coast before making a diagonal crossing for four days at approx. 5mph. She was reduced from a Cat 3 to a Cat 1 after four days of interaction over Cuba's land mass. And even she managed to eventually strengthen to a Cat 4, although slowly.
2. was reduced from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1 within 24 hours of crossing Cuba. However, after exiting Cuba, within 24 hours his windspeed recovered to 145mph and Cat 4 status.
Many have managed to INCREASE intensity while crossing Cuba, see Frederick, , Georges, Elena, King, Baker, Alma, Isbell, Hilda, #741 1948, #723 1946.
Most have managed to MAINTAIN intensity while crossing Cuba, see Lili, Cleo, Easy, #740 1948, #707 1944, #604 1933, #547 1926, #622 1935,
A few were weakened, but this was a temporary effect. ALL but Inez were able to regain their former strength within just 24 hours, most within 12 hours.
So the "Cuba Effect" while interesting, has had little to no ability to permanently reduce a hurricane's strength below it's pre-cuba status.
It is possible that Cuba has "saved" the mainland USA from a few strikes that might have been slightly stronger had they not interacted with Cuba, but that's conjecture. Historical data shows Cuba is a road bump, not a show stopper.
Note: I only studied storms that were Cat 3 and higher at any point during their development, not necessarily while near Cuba or at landfall. Their intensities near Cuba ranged from TD to Cat 4.
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Never use a long word when a diminutive one will do.
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Bev
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
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The 12Z trends toward a panhandle scenario.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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Quote:
Quote:
...
The forecast over the next few days will be complicated by Ike's interaction with Cuba. If Ike traverses the spine of Cuba for two days--as some models predict--then I can't imagine much of it surviving that journey. ...
There has been quite a bit of talk about relying on Cuba to weaken the storm. Common sense would lead us to believe this, the Mets like to talk of this, and to a minute degree it is true, Cuba can have some disruptive effects on a TS or Hurricane.
But all available data show the effect is transitory at best and non-existent at worst.. A storm's interaction with Cuba his little to no long term effect on its' strength at an eventual mainland strike.
If you study the historical data of every storm that ever traversed cuba, either along the spine, across the mountains, on a diagonal path, or just a glancing blow, only two in 90 years of historical data were actually weakened enough to be considered "shredded" and both of these were able to regain their pre-cuba strength.
1. Inez who bounced along Cuba's southern coast before making a diagonal crossing for four days at approx. 5mph. She was reduced from a Cat 3 to a Cat 1 after four days of interaction over Cuba's land mass. And even she managed to eventually strengthen to a Cat 4, although slowly.
2. was reduced from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1 within 24 hours of crossing Cuba. However, after exiting Cuba, within 24 hours his windspeed recovered to 145mph and Cat 4 status.
Many have managed to INCREASE intensity while crossing Cuba, see Frederick, , Georges, Elena, King, Baker, Alma, Isbell, Hilda, #741 1948, #723 1946.
Most have managed to MAINTAIN intensity while crossing Cuba, see Lili, Cleo, Easy, #740 1948, #707 1944, #604 1933, #547 1926, #622 1935,
A few were weakened, but this was a temporary effect. ALL but Inez were able to regain their former strength within just 24 hours, most within 12 hours.
So the "Cuba Effect" while interesting, has had little to no ability to permanently reduce a hurricane's strength below it's pre-cuba status.
It is possible that Cuba has "saved" the mainland USA from a few strikes that might have been slightly stronger had they not interacted with Cuba, but that's conjecture. Historical data shows Cuba is a road bump, not a show stopper.
Note: I only studied storms that were Cat 3 and higher at any point during their development, not necessarily while near Cuba or at landfall. Their intensities near Cuba ranged from TD to Cat 4.
As can be easily seen from this plot of Ikes projected path.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=t&m=09&av=20089613
He comes off cuba as a cat 1 and very quickly regains strength to cat 3 atleast.
Also, I still believe that Hanna is going to pull the impending ridge too quickly to the East for Ike to latch onto it. If you look at the time lines of Hanna and Ike, Hanna will be way back out to the Atlantic by Tues. at 8 am, and Ike will just then be reaching the point where the northward turn is supposed to occur
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Bev
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
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Quote:
As can be easily seen from this plot of Ikes projected path.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=t&m=09&av=20089613
He comes off cuba as a cat 1 and very quickly regains strength to cat 3 atleast.
Also, I still believe that Hanna is going to pull the impending ridge too quickly to the East for Ike to latch onto it. If you look at the time lines of Hanna and Ike, Hanna will be way back out to the Atlantic by Tues. at 8 am, and Ike will just then be reaching the point where the northward turn is supposed to occur
Statistics support Ike at Cat 3 at 96 hours rather than Cat 2. Only Inez took more than 24 hours to restrengthen, and she was busy doing an about face and heading back the way she came, obviously dealing with less than ideal conditions. Ike doesn't appear to be facing the the same unfavorable conditions.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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anybody happen to notice on GOES-E the slight jog northward? is it me staring at this thing all morning after and night or do i see that? check out 12:15 UTC - 17:45 UTC. could that pressure system be pulling it slightly?
Edited by Evan McCone (Sat Sep 06 2008 02:52 PM)
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jf
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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IKe has expended its wind field to the north as well as begin to move more west than west south west. The high to the north has pressures in the southern portion that are lower than earlier today . I'm not sure how that will affect IKE in the short term. Anyone care to guess ???
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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I am watching the 1700 UTC - 1845 UTC and I still see WSW for me...
Also something to note, three more models on the model plot here have Ike taking a direct west turn now on their 18Z track. They may be picking up the ridge that Hanna is pulling East now instead of leaving it where Ike can pick it up
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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Latest wind steering current has come out. check it out
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF
looks like that gap for ike to flow north has closed.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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I agree and I think we will see that reflected in a pretty good westerly shift in the tracks. It may take until the 11pm EDT update tonight before we see this propogated to all the different models, but I think it will occur.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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slowly, i think they might be getting a handle on what this storm might be doing. all of the models are in agreement up until it gets into the gulf. then they are uncertain. im sure that cone will shift westward with further updates. while not completely satisfied (i dont think anyone is) nothing short of some sort of crazy scenario, do i think that this storm will impact the east coast of florida.
...but then again this is the atlantic basin 
Edited by Evan McCone (Sat Sep 06 2008 04:08 PM)
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coastal worried
Unregistered
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is the west coast of Florida (Tampa) in particular off the hook yet? This thing looks like New Orleans all over it!!
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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nothing from tx to fl is off the hook...not by a longshot
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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while I wouldn't say that any point is particularly out of the woods with this yet, I would say that if Ike does follow fairly closely to the path that is laid out at this point (getting to the mid-GOM in other words) I think he will be turned west becuase of the high pressure center that will be in place over the northern GOM, this would take NOLA out of the question, but extreme western LA to anywhere on the Texas Coast would then be in the path.
Again, this is just conjecture on my part.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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IF Ike does turn into a high cat 4 or 5,before it gets into Cuba,won't that posssible change the track.There is the polar effect,and could change the conditions around it.
--------------------
Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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well the 5pm is out and he is cat 4 again...all of the models except one now show the ridge passing Ike to the north, thus keeping Ike on a west or WNW path across the GOM. There was a slight southern shift in the path, but other than that, not much change right now.
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 130
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
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The track has Ike pointed almost exactly at New Orleans for the last 24 hours or so. Does that not reflect a strong probability that Ike will end up somewhere near New Orleans?
What are the reasons for hoping that Ike might change course (and, if there are any such reasons, why is the not taking them into account?)?
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Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
Distros: Debian, Xubuntu, Mint
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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Well because it is the 5 day forecast that is pointed right at it, it is still very inaccurate pass the "white" part of the forecast track, it could very easily go either East or West of that. However, the likes to err on the side of caution and wait until they can know for sure before making any definite path changes. It does seem though that the opportunity for Ike to take the more north or WNW direction the currently has in place has passed due to the weakness in the high pressure center over the gulf staying to far north. This will probably make the high pressure center push the path further to the west. I suspect the is waiting until the last of their main models to update more to the western path before adjusting their official forecast.
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 130
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
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What's your guess on the current threat level for New Orleans? Do you know if they are already planning for yet another evacuation? Has Nagin made any statements?
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Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
Distros: Debian, Xubuntu, Mint
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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I think it's still too early for them to have said anything about that. It's still about 6-7 days away from hitting in NOLA if that's the direction it chooses. We should get some more good information in about 30 minutes with their next update.
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coastal worried
Unregistered
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live on the coast of Pinellas County. Looks like this thing is going to blow by to my west. What do I need to be looking for to say "uh oh" looks like this thing might have a chance to come my way? Slow speed? Front from the midwest? What will make this thing turn and possibly come my way...otherwise...I'm checking out the NFL for the next two days and putting this thing to bed on it's current path!!
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Taz16
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
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Right now the trend with the models is west. The data from the Gulfstream jet will give us a better idea. If the front is strong it could have a role if ike turns n or nne or ne. Time will tell.
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docrod
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
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Hi - I found the link regarding storm surge predictions if anyone is interested
http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/
It's experimental and the storm needs to be within 24hours of a predicted landfall.
- take care
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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Everybody in the gulf coast really needs to keep an eye on this catagory 4 monster i should say. The latest computer models have this going as far west as new orleans. I dont see in anyway how this is going to turn out as a trough of low pressure is going to come from central plains. Here what one meteorologist thinks about the storms path !!!
I personally have a hard time believing a storm that is at this latitude (already at 23 north) will go west through the Gulf in September. And with the trough already into the central Plains, I have to believe Ike will be tugged on to steer it more and more toward the north over time.
Of course, there's the complicating factor that suggests the trough will lift enough so that it never really can grab Ike. But that suggests to me more of a stall tactic, rather than an aggressive move to the west. Still, it is an option and, until we get more agreement in the modeling, or the atmosphere shows its hand, so to speak, all options have to be left open, my leanings notwithstanding!
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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The problem with that quote from that Met is that it is from yesterday or the day before...The storm is now at 21 N, not 23, and with Ike being this far south, he will not be affected by the ridge coming across the US. Ever single model now, including the (was the lone dissenter at the last update) has Ike taking a left run as he approaches the mid GOM and heading due West, the should have their track updated to follow suit as of the 11pm update.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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last night was heading to ls..today at Tampa..tonight to central LA then a sharpo NE turn..4-5 day models are not in agreement..whole gulf is involved
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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We should have a better handle on the situation later tonight into tomorrow as the NOAA G-IV plane flies its mission to sample the atmosphere well out ahead of Ike. This data would be fed in to the 00 UTC computer models it will be intresting
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Big question tonight is ...
Will the extra data ingest from all of the RECON and Research aircraft give a better idea on the future track of Ike.
Cone of Certainty is currently from Vermillion Bay, LA to Key West, FL. That's a lot of beach frontage and more than four times the last Evacuation out of Louisiana.
I hope that everyone in the current Cone has things ready to make the trip to a safe haven, shelter or the like for the coming week. House and home repair can be accomplished after a Storm. But they still haven't mastered Human repair after a Storm. When you have to go... GO !
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jeangfl
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.55N 81.90W
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Probably a "newbie" question - why are the Bahamas under a hurricane warning and NOT in the cone?
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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Quote:
Big question tonight is ...
Will the extra data ingest from all of the RECON and Research aircraft give a better idea on the future track of Ike.
Cone of Certainty is currently from Vermillion Bay, LA to Key West, FL. That's a lot of beach frontage and more than four times the last Evacuation out of Louisiana.
I hope that everyone in the current Cone has things ready to make the trip to a safe haven, shelter or the like for the coming week. House and home repair can be accomplished after a Storm. But they still haven't mastered Human repair after a Storm. When you have to go... GO !
More like the cone of Uncertainty
I think at the 11pm EDT update Ike is going to have strengthened a good deal more than at the 8pm EDT update. His eye is much more defined than it was and he is looking more and more impressive.
Also, looking at the water vapor imagery from the GOES satellite, the ridge that is supposed to create the weakness for Ike to turn north with is already almost over Florida, and Ike is still almost 2 days away from turning back to the NW over Cuba...this feeds into the accuracy of the latest models at , I don't think you can get much more of a consensus than this. A little difference in latitude, but all the same general "western-GOM" motion.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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Quote:
Probably a "newbie" question - why are the Bahamas under a hurricane warning and NOT in the cone?
The Bahamas are going to get lashed by what we call the "upper right quadrant" of the storm. This is where the strongest winds are located in a hurricane. The cone only points to where the "center" of the storm will pass over, but doesn't dictate what locations will be affected by the outer parts of the storm.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Quote:
Probably a "newbie" question - why are the Bahamas under a hurricane warning and NOT in the cone?
That is a great question.This situation is flud.Sunday we should know more about Florida.Good observation.
--------------------
Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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conschscooter
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 4
Loc: Florida Keys
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I wish hurricanes were named after something other than humans. I find the use of personal pronouns weird (Ike is a he? When did a storm generate gonads?) and pronouns have the tendency to personalise what is already a crappy situation. 150 people weren't murdered in Haiti, they were killed by the weather. Perhaps we could name storms after say trees (acacia, buttonwood, cedar...etc...) That would depersonalise it/him. Besides, I don't much like Ike.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The extra data should help the model forecasts in the short term. It will also help the hand analysis of the human forecasters at , which is a big part of the short-term official forecasts.
Long term, the extra data probably won't help much, since the features that will eventually be affecting (or passing by) Ike are still a long ways away.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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This is going to be intresting if it really holds true http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=6 does ?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Very interesting stat from local tv met.17 tropical systems have been where Ike is now,and all have hit south Florida directly or went to our east.
--------------------
Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Bob... Ike is not coming to your area. There is no model that shows it coming there and its almost impossible for it to move NW into a ridge. IKE is a GOM event with the Keys having a 40% chance.
The Gulfstream flight really doesnt matter much cause All the models agree on a west path across or near Cuba and into the SE Gulf somewhere. Its not like 1 or 2 models dont show this and the wants that data to see which model is right. Also like Thunderbird said, its only for a short term (24-36hr) movement cause condtions change, thats why another flight is the next day.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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Yeah you can't get much more straightforward than this from the latest forecast discussion;
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION. UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
The "central" line of the track now points almost directly at Houston, we'll see how this plays out. We should have additional recon data at 1am CDT that will tell us the more accurate strength and atmospheric conditions.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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That dont tell us more about its future path. Also a path to Houston is 7-9 days out.
Anyways like I said above about the Gulfstream Data going into the , nothing changed..
I am shocked though on how far north Ike has been 24N and 59W and can make it sooo far west with
no trough affecting it to move N thru 10 days. ( Last Thursday-Next Sunday) at this time of year in Mid Sept almost!
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Bev
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
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Quote:
Very interesting stat from local tv met.17 tropical systems have been where Ike is now,and all have hit south Florida directly or went to our east.
Your local met should do a little more research. Kate's path was directly over where Ike is now and she hit the panhandle. Baker was almost exactly on Ike's current point and made landfall in Alabama. Storm #597 (1933) was directly over Ike's location and made landfall in S. Texas. Frederic was within about 40 miles of Ike's position and made landfall in Mobile. Eloise was close to Ike's position and hit the panhandle.
Most near Ike's location do affect south Florida, but by no means all.
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Never use a long word when a diminutive one will do.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Quote:
Bob... Ike is not coming to your area. There is no model that shows it coming there and its almost impossible for it to move NW into a ridge. IKE is a GOM event with the Keys having a 40% chance.
The Gulfstream flight really doesnt matter much cause All the models agree on a west path across or near Cuba and into the SE Gulf somewhere. Its not like 1 or 2 models dont show this and the wants that data to see which model is right. Also like Thunderbird said, its only for a short term (24-36hr) movement cause condtions change, thats why another flight is the next day.
LOL,I hope your right,you could be a rich man if you could say that 100%.Sunday afternoon is when we will know.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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hogrunr
Unregistered
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the 0000UTC for the is out now, shows the same thing as all the other models now, cutting across the gulf moving WNW and Turning N at the last second and hitting near Houston area. We'll see what the 1 am EDT update has to offer as well.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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listen old timers look at this storm and see Donna... a similar path and point and same time of september
so hard to laugh it off... very hard to laugh this off
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_climo.html#a_topad
ill try.. hahaha
listen we are all a bit punchy and tired of loops and models are good... has been good
then again they never had models or forecasts for jamaica getting hit did they? like 2 days before he went way far south
so we all watch, wait.. watch..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/nwsfax.html
This is the link for the NWS's Fax Page. If you have Image Viewer, Office 2007 you shouldn't have any problems opening these files which are TIFF and PNG. I cannot say enough about the detail on these charts and if you can open the 850, 700, 500 mb charts, I want everybody to pay attention to all those numbers and letters off the coast of FL. That's NOAA and the Hurricane Hunters sampling the environment, dropsondes, etc. It is that data that added to other RAOB, PIREPS to make up these charts. Most forecasters re-analyze the data on these charts, particularly contours and change of heights over the past 12 and 24 hours, and given where Hanna was 24 hours ago, you're going to see some big changes where Hanna was tonight, particularly with heights. These charts are like the surface analysis, but they are current upper air analysis which all model data is based on. What I do is print off these charts and then compare them to previous progged positions for this time frame. That is how we know what model is performing best and any single point in time. Models are a headache!
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Mandeville, LA
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Looking at the sats (WV), it looks to me like Ike is trending back to the south a little bit, as the dry air comes in. I wouldn't say WSW, but a little S of due west. I guess we just have to keep watching and hopefully things will start to be more consistent in the next couple of days.
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Terra M. Dassau, Ph.D.
(Chemistry, however, so don't think I'm an expert!)
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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Post deleted by Evan McCone
Edited by Evan McCone (Sun Sep 07 2008 09:03 AM)
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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you might want to change that to the Florida Peninsula or east coast, don't think the panhandle is out of the woods yet, with the hwrf model hitting there and a slight turn late in the and ....it may all come down to the speed of the storm and where it is when a break in the ridge occurs
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 92
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Quote:
Yeah you can't get much more straightforward than this from the latest forecast discussion;
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
The "central" line of the track now points almost directly at Houston, we'll see how this plays out. We should have additional recon data at 1am CDT that will tell us the more accurate strength and atmospheric conditions.
OMG
From Crownweather this AM:
"The forecast track for the next 36 to 48 hours is a difficult one because forecasting a major hurricane make landfall into Cuba from the east-northeast just isn't right. It is such a rare track that I cannot find an example of a major hurricane doing this. Therefore, I am very reluctantly forecasting a track that is close to the and HWRF model tracks and am forecasting Ike to come ashore on the north coast of Cuba near La Puerto and Manati late tonight as a very powerful Category 4 hurricane. Once ashore, Ike is forecast to track about 25 miles inland from the north coast of Cuba on Monday into Monday night. Ike should then track off of the north coast of Cuba about 60 miles or so east of Havana late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. This jaunt through northern Cuba may knock Ike down from Category 4 strength to as much as Category 1 strength."
This is or ReDux.
And NOLA can't afford to evac again. BR is still on it's knees.
The oil industry will take 6 months to recover.
Port Everglades is the regional seaport for nine petroleum companies, which sypply gasoline, jet fuel, fuel oil, diesel fuel, propane, aviation gasoline and asphalt to 12 South Florida counties and all three local international airports.
Broward County - Port Everglades
A: Seventy-five percent of the refined gasoline delivered to Port Everglades on a daily basis comes from refineries in Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi. ...
www.broward.org/port//petroleum_faq.htm
Good Luck, All of Us
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Quote:
you might want to change that to the Florida Peninsula or east coast, don't think the panhandle is out of the woods yet, with the hwrf model hitting there and a slight turn late in the and ....it may all come down to the speed of the storm and where it is when a break in the ridge occurs
Absolutely true. Plus, where and how long it goes over Cuba will be a factor. The models continue to wobble, it's almost as if they stay on a certain track long enough for the to believe it, and then they shift. Powerful hurricanes are also more likely to move poleward, which tends to make me reluctant to believe a Houston landfall, but it's just too early to say for sure.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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now you are tapping a entirely different realm. i cant buy into that hype. refineries and gas stations have reserves as well as the state. just like any other state, in the event that a storm is projected and or hits their main supplier, they either go to their secondary supplier or tap off their reserve. maybe our gas prices will go up a bit but thats about all. as it is most areas in palm beach county where i live are 20 cents above national average anyway so it doesnt phase me.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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maybe this will help everyone better understand the current wind steering currents, how strong/weak they are.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF
hope this helps.
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jf
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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It appears as though the cloud shield from Ike is expanding to the N while the main storm is moving W at a slightly slower speed. It is possible that Ike could bounce off the mountains in Cuba and wobble to the N or NW. I'm not sure why the cloud shield is expanding to the N but I'm sure someone could explain why.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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the fact the storm may be expanding on its north side may have to do with the fact that the current wind steering currents are weakining. there is less pressure on the storm to stay south. IE 2 days ago there was practically no north side of the storm because of the strong frontal boundry pancake'ing it steering it west. the waters it is in now have a weaker steering wind flow current. thats my best guess.
Edited by Evan McCone (Sun Sep 07 2008 09:13 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Question is probably better answered by a Met.
My thinking is the outer pressure is weakening and allowing the storm envelope to expand.
Also known as the ridge moving or breaking down. Could be a good thing or it might be a bad thing. Only time will tell.
Models have updated and now have four out of twelve making landfall between Panama City Beach,FL and Vermillion Bay,LA.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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Its still possible first of all our storm is to the east of us until we see this thing farther away its always good to be prepared. One reason i dont think were out of this as of yet is cause of this trough coming down the mid plains check this out in 48 hours http://www.accuweather.com/maps-galileo....face&fday=5
depending on this is where i think ike is going to go ?
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 92
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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[quote
Models have updated and now have four out of twelve making landfall between Panama City Beach,FL and Vermillion Bay,LA.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
Now add in the "Ghost Tracks" of Edouard, Fay, and Gustav.
And the fact that NO did not get that much precip from Gustav.
That would rule out Vermillion (Please God says BR). And Panama would be a maybe.
But it's getting "late" into the season and the coriolis effect should negate the continued
"Rita" track.
I like Mobile and West though. In light of both the and HWRF models have shifted a little northward,
somewhere between PilotTown and Pascagoula. IMHO
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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models are still way too inconsistent for an accurate 5 day...GFS went from Cedar Key FL yesterday morning to Corpus Christi TX last night to central LA today....the changes per run are over 200 miles...we still have another day before i think an accurate Gulf path is determined
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 92
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Quote:
What's your guess on the current threat level for New Orleans? Do you know if they are already planning for yet another evacuation? Has Nagin made any statements?
Like every other program for Hurricane Preparedness, the people are not getting the info.
Watch what happens when Nagin gives the evac order. Not good.
Edited by mcgowanmc (Sun Sep 07 2008 09:56 AM)
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 92
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Quote:
models are still way too inconsistent for an accurate 5 day...GFS went from Cedar Key FL yesterday morning to Corpus Christi TX last night to central LA today....the changes per run are over 200 miles...we still have another day before i think an accurate Gulf path is determined
That's true enough, but every model now shows a Cat 3 in the GOM by Friday AM . And these models have been accurate enough
this year. The instant Ike takes it's WNW track, everyone from Panama City to Vermilion Bay will have
to begin prep. And who can afford to?
Ex-Mississippi/Alabama will have to pull every power truck out of Louisiana.
By this Evening we should know the angle Ike will hit Cuba.
That'll tell us alot.
Sincerely,
James
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
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Once landfall is withing 48-72 hours, the error will be drastically smaller than 200 miles, so it will be a much more focused evacuation. there are still about 35 other states that have power trucks to send down, so while Mississippi may have to pull back their own trucks (if Ike hits in that area that is) there will be plenty of others just waiting to get in on the money to be made from this.
The same situation waits for TX, they will have to pull their resources out of LA if it hits in TX.
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jf
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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Quote:
Question is probably better answered by a Met.
My thinking is the outer pressure is weakening and allowing the storm envelope to expand.
Also known as the ridge moving or breaking down. Could be a good thing or it might be a bad thing. Only time will tell.
Models have updated and now have four out of twelve making landfall between Panama City Beach,FL and Vermillion Bay,LA.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
I see from recent Sat images that Ike has wobbled to the NW as it approached the Island of Inagua.Does the recent expansion of the storm envelope to the North mean the storm could be moving into the least hostil environment.? What conditions would need exist to confirm a shift of a storm as strong as IKE.?
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willa
Unregistered
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So this is no longer a central florida/south florida event?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Is there any site where I can find last Thursday's forecast track.I believe it is currently still on THAT track.I think it had it going along the north coast of Cuba.
--------------------
Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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Ben F.
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: Palm Beach Gardens, FL 26.84N 80.10W
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Central and South Florida is out of the cone. There is no chance of it coming here.
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willa
Unregistered
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They usually have it in the archives. Interesting thing is. Only 1 storm ever has not hit florida that was within 300 miles of ike right now. This is a once in a lifetime event that it won't hit florida.All that tells me is, the chances of central florida like tampa area has a very slim to none chance to ever be hit directly by a hurricane.
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jf
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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The website has an archive section
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Quote:
There is no chance of it coming here.
If you know anything about hurricanes,that statement is very careless and wrong.It is STILL to the SE of Florida.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Quote:
They usually have it in the archives. Interesting thing is. Only 1 storm ever has not hit florida that was within 300 miles of ike right now. This is a once in a lifetime event that it won't hit florida.All that tells me is, the chances of central florida like tampa area has a very slim to none chance to ever be hit directly by a hurricane.
Just to repost, that is not correct..
Kate's path was directly over where Ike is now and she hit the panhandle. Baker was almost exactly on Ike's current point and made landfall in Alabama. Storm #597 (1933) was directly over Ike's location and made landfall in S. Texas. Frederic was within about 40 miles of Ike's position and made landfall in Mobile. Eloise was close to Ike's position and hit the panhandle
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Central and South Florida is out of the cone. There is no chance of it coming here.
Until the storm... any storm is north of your location there is still a slight change, or 50/ 50 chance, of the storm hitting your location.
Hurricane in 2004 is a perfect example.
Hurricane was forecast to hit Tampa and turned NE.
I could go on and on.
A Storm in the GOM or Caribbean requires a minimum of checking the Storms status and forecast every 6 hours. Regardless of whether you are in the Cone or not.
My personal opinion and not necessarily that of the Management or Administration. 
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Quote:
The website has an archive section
But you can't get an active storm's past forecast track,like Ike's from last Thursday.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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HurricaneHunter
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: Biloxi, Mississippi
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Even as residents who fled the city ahead of Hurricane Gustav continued to return, Mayor Ray Nagin said Saturday that it appeared the city would need to start worrying about Hurricane Ike.
Hurricane Ike grew to Category 4 strength Saturday and could head into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, putting residents along the Gulf Coast on alert less than a week after Gustav made landfall in south Louisiana.
Nagin told reporters he's worried about fast-moving Ike and about the wherewithal of residents who one week ago began leaving ahead of Gustav. Reactions of residents who've returned have ranged from relief to find their homes not flooded to frustration with the cost of evacuating and time away from home.
"Our citizens are weary and they're tired and they have spent a lot of money evacuating, some of them, from Gustav," Nagin said Saturday evening. "My expectations this time is, it will be very difficult to move the kind of numbers out of this city that we moved during Gustav."
An estimated 18,000 residents relied on government-provided buses, trains and planes to evacuate New Orleans. On Monday, when Gustav made landfall as a Category 2 storm in south Louisiana, police estimated that only 10,000 people remained in the city out of an estimated 310,000 to 340,000 residents.
Nagin's emergency preparedness director, Jerry Sneed, said the city will have buses and trains at its disposal, should it need to evacuate people. Sneed said that if anyone is reluctant to leave -- if the call comes to evacuate again -- they should remember the images of Hurricane , which included people stranded on rooftops, surrounded by floodwaters.
"If you look at being inconvenienced by a shelter or a long bus ride, you need to remember what was like," Sneed said. "Nothing can compare to that."
At this point, the city is monitoring Ike and its still-uncertain path.
Nagin said officials are faced with a "new set of challenges," including the possibility that evacuees will not be able to rely on many of the in-state shelters at their disposal for Gustav.
The mayor said officials will need to get a good assessment on the condition of the city's levee protection system and that the potential exists for phased evacuations -- or, the evacuation of certain parts of the city considered more vulnerable to a storm.
"We may have to rely upon our levee protection system this time in a way that we didn't with Gustav," he said.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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the way it looks right now, the chance of it nailing south florida with a direct hit is preety unlikely. THINGS DO CHANGE as i have specified before. and i agree with bob, while it is se of florida anything is possible and until it gets into the gulf should we breathe easy. however it is not looking like it will effect south florida with a direct hit at the given time. just because we arent in the cone and it isnt going to be a direct hit to south florida doesnt mean we wont get effected either. if this thing wobbles more north and it passes in between the keys and cuba, then south west and south east florida will experience some preety nasty weather. strong wind gusts, squally rains etc.
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
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Quote:
Quote:
Central and South Florida is out of the cone. There is no chance of it coming here.
Until the storm... any storm is north of your location there is still a slight change, or 50/ 50 chance, of the storm hitting your location.
Hurricane in 2004 is a perfect example.
Hurricane was forecast to hit Tampa and turned NE.
I could go on and on.
A Storm in the GOM or Caribbean requires a minimum of checking the Storms status and forecast every 6 hours. Regardless of whether you are in the Cone or not.
My personal opinion and not necessarily that of the Management or Administration.
I guess the question with this situation is, were these storms forecast to hit Florida? I know things can change, but the there is a HUGE difference in a storm making a freak turn and hitting Florida when it is forecast elsewhere, and the storm being forecast to hit Florida.
In other words, if and were forecast to hit Florida, then that doesn't exactly meet the example that people are trying to make now when saying that Ike is still likely to go AGAINST the forecast and turn towards Florida.
Again, not saying it isn't possible, but I think there is a huge difference in what everyone is trying to make it into. This is not a 50/50 or even probably a 70/30, but more like a 90/10 chance of Ike following the path it's projected to vs. it hitting central or south Florida.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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From the Mobile,AL Forecast Discussion:
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF "WHAT-IF`S"
INCLUDING THE POSITION OF HERETOFORE UNPREDICTED FEATURES IN THE
WESTERLIES THAT COULD STEER THE STORM DIFFERENTLY THAN WHAT WAS
THOUGHT OR CALCULATED...OR WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE DRY AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST WERE INGESTED INTO IKE.
IT WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
ANYONE CAN SAY WITH MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE WHERE THIS TRACK WILL BE.
ONE MUST RECALL THAT THE ERROR CIRCLES (CONE OF UNCERTAINTY)
REPRESENTS A 2/3 CONFIDENCE WHICH IS A RUNNING AVERAGE OVER THE LAST
FIVE YEARS. THAT UNCERTAINTY IS THE REASON WHY IT IS IMPORTANT THAT
ALL INTERESTS CONSTANTLY STAY POSTED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THIS
HURRICANE. 77/BD
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=AFD&sid=MOB&date=2008-09-07%2009:31:17
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jf
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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If the predication of a westerly move for IKE is accurate should that be plotted from the recent wobble of IKE ?
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Loxgal
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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Bob,
Check the archives...Then in the archive section at the top in blue there is another link for Graphics archive. Then you can pick the graphic you want. I found the 3 and 5 day cone history. It plays a loop but you can stop it, etc.
Betsy
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K4RPI
Skywarn
KFLLOXAH6
Weather station on Wunderground
Survived:
Andrew, Francis, Jeanne, Wilma
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071430.shtml
Key West Hurricane Local Statement:
......PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FOR KEY WEST...THERE IS A 65 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 18 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.
FOR MARATHON...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.
FOR MIAMI...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
74 MPH OR GREATER.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KKEY.shtml
Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 07 2008 10:52 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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3 Day forecast for 11 AM Friday
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/AL092008_3NLW_018_0.GIF
3 day Forecast for 11 AM Sunday
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/AL092008_3NLW_026_0.GIF
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 92
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Quote:
Nagin said officials are faced with a "new set of challenges," including the possibility that evacuees will not be able to rely on many of the in-state shelters at their disposal for Gustav.
The mayor said officials will need to get a good assessment on the condition of the city's levee protection system and that the potential exists for phased evacuations -- or, the evacuation of certain parts of the city considered more vulnerable to a storm.
"We may have to rely upon our levee protection system this time in a way that we didn't with Gustav," he said.
Thank you. I was looking for this.
There is no shelter from BR to Houma. 80 Iron men from BR to NO have been knocked down. And a guy from WDSU(Ch 361 DirectTV) showed film of the concrete
wall, the Industrial Canal. It was battered. There were holes. The levees can't take a strong TS right now.
Edited by mcgowanmc (Sun Sep 07 2008 11:20 AM)
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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the 3 day from fri to sunday are preety accurate as far as time frame, but thats a huge jump to the south. thanks for those posts daniel.
also note, only 3 models are pointing to a panhandle scenario now. 1 of which of the 3 doesnt even have a landfall plot yet.
Edited by Evan McCone (Sun Sep 07 2008 11:22 AM)
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 92
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Quote:
now you are tapping a entirely different realm. i cant buy into that hype. refineries and gas stations have reserves as well as the state. just like any other state, in the event that a storm is projected and or hits their main supplier, they either go to their secondary supplier or tap off their reserve. maybe our gas prices will go up a bit but thats about all. as it is most areas in palm beach county where i live are 20 cents above national average anyway so it doesnt phase me.
But now you're into my forte. You can go to theoildrum.com.
The experts I rely on: WestTexas, Khebab, Ace, Gailthe Actuary.
Mexico has dropped it's exports to the US by 30% over last year.
Just in the last week 1 million bpd have not been produced in the GOM.
Even if we don't get another hurricane, MOL is here now. And don't even rely on the NYMEX as a predictor.
Port Fourchon/the LOOP won't be up for at least another week and crude is down?
And oyu think those crews are going to be put back iinto the GOM with a CAT 3 on the way?
And a BTW-there's not enough gasoline for another Evac of NO.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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personally i think we should keep our eyes on where the storm is going and what it is going to do before we start to worry about the pre storm and after storm effects of what ike is going to do to the oil industry. even still we should keep this forum page to just what the storm is doing and what it is going to do.
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
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Sure you can Bob. If you click on the Archive section then click on maps it'll play the tracks out for you in loop. you can slow the play speed down or make it go faster. There's also a stop button I believe which will let you sort of "freeze frame" it.
If you can't slow it down enough, you could always go back through the Archives for the Public Advisories and/or Discussions which always give the coordinates in them as well and compare that way.
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willa
Unregistered
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Quote:
Quote:
They usually have it in the archives. Interesting thing is. Only 1 storm ever has not hit florida that was within 300 miles of ike right now. This is a once in a lifetime event that it won't hit florida.All that tells me is, the chances of central florida like tampa area has a very slim to none chance to ever be hit directly by a hurricane.
Just to repost, that is not correct..
Kate's path was directly over where Ike is now and she hit the panhandle. Baker was almost exactly on Ike's current point and made landfall in Alabama. Storm #597 (1933) was directly over Ike's location and made landfall in S. Texas. Frederic was within about 40 miles of Ike's position and made landfall in Mobile. Eloise was close to Ike's position and hit the panhandle
I should of been clear.. any category 3,4,5 hurricanes...
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_climo.gif
Actually just 2.
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RCinNOLA
Unregistered
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While I normally just lurk here for the great info. on hurricanes, I must reply to your incorrect statements as a resident of NOLA and south Louisiana.
Port Fourchon reopened to some traffic Friday, LOOP started offloading Friday as well.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/5985161.html
There is plenty of gasoline in in the New Orleans area, as soon as they started opening Wed. and Thursday, most
had plentiful supplies throughout the area. Most residents filled there tanks up upon return, so i would say there is more than enough for another evacuation.
We are keeping a very close eye on Ike, but now is not the time to panic.
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RCinNOLA
Unregistered
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Quote:
There is no shelter from BR to Houma. 80 Iron men from BR to NO have been knocked down. And a guy from WDSU(Ch 361 DirectTV) showed film of the concrete
wall, the Industrial Canal. It was battered. There were holes. The levees can't take a strong TS right now.
This is incorrect as well, the wall shown was a Port facility wall, not part of the flood protection. The industrial canal walls had waves splashing over, there was minor erosion near a few R/R gate, but not much else. The New Orleans area is in good shape, the Grand Isle levee and one near Lafitte were breached, but not in the metro New Orleans area.
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/09/corps_cites_areas_needing_quic.html
While we would prefer not to have another storm come this way, to say they cannot take a strong TS is both incorrect and could induce a panic which is unjustified.
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EBinTX
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.05N 95.45W
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Personally, I believe anything beyond 48 hours right now is a crap shoot. About all I think can be said with a standard deviation of confidence is that Ike will soon ht Cuba and then later will emerge somewhere in the GOM. I seriously question any models ability to accurately forecast how Ike will be affected by its time over Cuba, where it will come out and what kind of condition it will be in. I can easily see how Ike could end up on the south side of Cuba, head for the Yucatan and then head west toward somewhere between Corpus and Brownsville. Where when and how Ike emerges as it departs Cuba will be key.
At the 120 hr point the models are quite divergent, forecasting landfall from somewhere near Corpus to as far east as Apalachicola. Being just 12 miles inland south of Houston I will be watching every move carefully. But at this time it is way too early to get excited about a particular landfall possibility.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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The only models everyone really needs to look at is the and the , thats is unless 1 of them is a outlier.The isn't bad but just generally gives us a idea of AROUND where a system might be. Rest of the models are not too liable. Sometimes a model, like the UKmet does well, but only if it is inline with the and . So in summary, -GFDL rest dont even bother looking at or you will start assuming possibilities that just wont come true.
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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By my rough calculation Ike would be about 5 or 6 days away from any potential landfall in Louisiana and at least a week from the Houston area. With that in mind, I think that Evan is correct and we should focus on the storm itself in this thread. 'Impact' concerns will be better suited for the Disaster Forum at a later time.
Someone noted that it was not only important to watch the 'cone', but also how the cone shifts over time...and that was good advice. The larger 5-day cone still covers a huge area which suggests continued uncertainty in the track beyond 3 days. Probably adding to that uncertainty is the notion that Ike is expected to grow in size after it gets into the Gulf.
While I'm at it, I'll also add that there has been some excellent dialogue in the Lounge over the past couple of days with the posting of some worthwhile information and data links.
Thanks,
ED
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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"Until the storm... any storm is north of your location there is still a slight change, or 50/ 50 chance, of the storm hitting your location."
Yeah..rule of thumb by my mother and older relatives.. until it's west of you or north of you... pay attention.
NHC doing an incredible job this year or I'd be really terrified with that big storm down there. Seriously, they have done a great job but as someone here said...things change
so ... him moving slowly doesn't thrill me even though the models are insistent
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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jf
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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The storm has taken made a shift to the NW. Do any of you see the turn?
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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yeah i'm seeing the same thing more like a w/nw track now lets see how this plays out. If ike make landfall in cuba and stays in the north side of the island things are going to get intresting !
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
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I see about three or four frames of the animation that look like that kind of turn and then the last two frames take it back to the W or WSW, so lets see over the next hour or so what overall track it takes, it is easy for the system to wobble sometimes, so we'll have to see if that's all it is or not.
It's actually right at the latitude that the track has it changing to due west, so it's pretty close to expected now.
Edited by hogrunr (Sun Sep 07 2008 03:51 PM)
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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on goes, i notice a clear shift of the eye to the NW. i have studied the past 60 images for reliability. plotting it there was a jog to the nw. whether this is perminent, or just a slight movement i am not sure i will continue to study the loops and get back to everyone.
studying everything further, at 13:15 utc the center of circulation was placed at 21.04N 73.41W off of the west coast Great Inagua Island. presently (19:15 utc) the center of circulation is at 21.08N 74.17W. correction WNW maybe. anyone else taking a look at this?
Edited by Evan McCone (Sun Sep 07 2008 04:17 PM)
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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I would give it alittle more time to see if this is in fact a seriouse move more to the north. But other then that i do see this as a motion more to the w/nw.
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot
[Re: | |
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