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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

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naplesdave
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: Naples, Florida 26.17N 81.73W
Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses [Re: Unregistered User]
      #86208 - Sun Aug 16 2009 11:16 AM

It seems to me the weaking called for further down the road (Tuesday to Wednesday), is based on it's assumed interaction with land. If the track were to be 100 or more miles further south it would minimize this interaction. What effect would this have on an intensity forcast if it were to stay south over the caribbean as opposed to scraping over all those mountains? All this assumes it survives it's current problems.

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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: gatorman]
      #86326 - Mon Aug 17 2009 12:27 PM

Quote:

if Ana goes where it is forcasted to go, in the gulf, what would stop it from developing? TD4 seems to have developed very nicely in a relative short peroid of time, seems like ana would be over warmer SST and have a longer peroid over these waters? and if it did develop back to a TS or even a weak hurricane, poleward movement would drasticly change forecast,correct??just wondering.




well i agree with what your saying, however, while the gulf is condusive for development, i dont think the forecast track is going to give ana enough body of water to strengthen. but thats based on its track as of right now. one think i noticed is clark evans intensity plot seemed to have the agencies split in the middle for development back into a TS and maybe a hurricane 3 or 4 days out. so im not entirely sure. what i am sure of, is florida will feel it. its just a matter of how bad. this might end up like another fay.


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gatorman
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: 30.29N 85.64W
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86353 - Tue Aug 18 2009 12:13 PM

latest IR shows ana may be starting back up? i think im seeing a slight rotation, any chances this may form back into TD or TS? looks like this one may have more room for development than claudette did? anyone have any thoughts on this??

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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: gatorman]
      #86362 - Tue Aug 18 2009 01:44 PM

thats what the latest ir forecast shows. it shows it fireing up back into a TD. interesting to say in the least. personally, the NHC ditched ana the first time around and brought it back and now ditched it again. needless to say i wouldnt be surprised to see it form into a TD once more.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Ana and Storm Preps [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86371 - Tue Aug 18 2009 08:36 PM

The NHC says in their 8pm ET , that the remnants of Ana don't show any signs of reorganizing...how is that possible? The restarting of circulation seems pretty obvious from the IR satellite.

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