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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Don Forecast Lounge
      #90632 - Wed Jul 20 2011 07:14 AM

This is for discussion of the Central Atlantic Wave (Currently around 42W at 7AM 4/20/2011).

This may be the first good loungable wave for the year, and I'm setting this up early.

The long range models take this north of the Caribbean, some take it into the Caribbean.
Based on recent years, it would move due west and potentially approach central America, but 2011 could be different..

No invests or hurricane models have been run on it yet, so it is all speculation at this point. It is something to keep an eye out.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Central Atlantic Wave Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #90634 - Wed Jul 20 2011 09:00 AM

One reason for this topic now is the Euro model (Euro/ECMWF) , which shows the system nearing/crossing florida next weekend. (Ie 9-10 days out, which is a bit long for models). But this is one of the reasons to keep an eye out on this system. Beware of hype, though, based on climatology it will likely change several times, and either move more westerly through the Caribbean or recurve out to sea.

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Ed in Va
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Re: Central Atlantic Wave Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #90635 - Wed Jul 20 2011 09:18 AM

For those of us who forgot (or never knew), this might be a good time for a model refresher. I usually use this link http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/, but there is nothing on there that says "euro." Is there a better link...could you list the best models and the various names used for them?

Tx.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Central Atlantic Wave Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #90636 - Wed Jul 20 2011 09:31 AM

The link I used (with the extended range European, also known as the ECMWF) is in the post, some are in data links on the left. They are only useful in specific instances. In the as the system gets a little closer the FSU link becomes much more useful.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Central Atlantic Wave Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed in Va]
      #90637 - Wed Jul 20 2011 09:56 AM

As an add-on to Mike's comments, more info about models (probably more than you ever wanted) is available from the NHC at:

NHC Technical Models Summary

I also noticed that the CMC (Canadian Model) takes the same system into the Carolinas in about 10 days, although its worth noting that the ECMWF is usually a more reliable model.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Central Atlantic Wave Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #90644 - Thu Jul 21 2011 02:30 PM

The euro today took it through the northern Caribbean islands, keeping it relatively weak. Still I think a track westerly through the Caribbean for the system is most likely. (10% shot at development, no invest yet though).

On the other hand NOGAPS has a tropical Storm north of the Dominican republic around Sunday.


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weatherguy08
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Re: Central Atlantic Wave Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #90645 - Thu Jul 21 2011 02:36 PM

Greetings everyone! It's been quite some time since I've posted here, so it's great to be back.

At any rate, the NHC now has a 10% area for the tropical wave in the central Atlantic near 50W. I don't expect anything for at least the next few days with this wave for a few reasons. While the upper-level environment is not bad at all (just some minor shear to the north of the main wave), there is a good deal of dry air in the region (per water vapor satellite imagery). There are a couple of upper-level lows in the area (one kinda to the north) and one downstream between Haiti and Cuba. If the wave continues it's west-northwestward heading (which I see no reason for it not to), it should skirt the south side of the first shear area. As for the ULL near Cuba, model forecasts carry that feature well out of the area in 72 hours. If the wave survives the dry air and the moderate shear in the short term, it could have some interesting prospects down the road.

--------------------
Jason
http://www.jasonsweathercenter.com
Andrew '92 - Lili '02 - Katrina '05 - Rita '05 - Humberto '07 - Gustav '08 - Ike '08 - Isaac '12 - Sandy '12


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Central Atlantic Wave Forecast Lounge [Re: weatherguy08]
      #90650 - Fri Jul 22 2011 07:09 AM

This system still is worth watching, although I still think it will be much more westerly tracking system than not. (Ie, may not even bother us). If it were late August the concern level would be much higher.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Central Atlantic Wave Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #90654 - Fri Jul 22 2011 10:48 AM

90L is now being tracked.

My lounge forecast (guess) is that it will move further west than the current models show, and generally stay weak. It may affect Central America or slide north into the Gulf, but if I had to pick it will move toward Central America.

Development maybe Sunday.

Watch the model trends.


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WesnWylie
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Re: Central Atlantic Wave Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #90657 - Fri Jul 22 2011 03:33 PM

Convection has increased with this wave over the last 2-3 hours. The models still indicate a west-northwesterly track into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. I am not sure about this scenario for these two reasons: 1. It's hard for the models to forecast where a wave will track without a low-level circulation; 2. A weakness in the ridge will develop across the Bahamas early next week which may result in a movement more toward the northwest.
I guess we'll have to just wait and see how certain features evolve over the next 24-48 hours. I have to say, though, I think this wave has a decent shot at some development this weekend.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


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adam s
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Re: 90L Wave Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #90658 - Fri Jul 22 2011 03:39 PM

I say right now that invest 90L has a 50 percent chance of development because of its location and that we are almost in August. I think that invest 90L will be the first Cape Verde storm of the year.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jul 22 2011 07:44 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: 90L Wave Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #90659 - Fri Jul 22 2011 04:04 PM

Of all the features (Invests and/or Tropical Cyclones) in the Atlantic basin so far this season, 90L is possibly the first one to really pay attention to for having some potential to impact the US with more than just rain showers, provided it can get past several hurdles, and develop within the next 7 or so days.

As of 3PM EDT July 22, Invest 90L is centered roughly 14N 56W, and traveling west to west-northwest, from now just east of the easternmost Windward Islands. While seemingly impressive on satellite, the system consists of a weak cyclonic circulation aloft, and almost certainly next to no circulation at the surface. Additionally, pressures associated with 90L are not yet falling much, if at all.

At this latitude, 90L may not encounter some of the shear that is ongoing in the southern Caribbean, although it may have to contend with traveling over more land.

Another, weaker disturbance traveling ahead of 90L is helping to neutralize some of the dry air in the region. This disturbance may also push back on some of the shear that may lie ahead.

Given the current state of 90L and its environment ahead, rapid development in the near term is only very slightly possible (NHC at 20% within the next 48 hours) - more probable would be for some sort of off-on/warm-cool trend over the course of the next few days, but with the odds of becoming a bona fide tropical cyclone sometime within the next 7 days actually decent.

Provided it is not traveling over too much land, more rapid improvement could easily commence by Day 5 or 6. Large scale weather patterns look in place to keep upper level winds at least reasonably conducive, and the system will be over very warm waters. Thus, it is conceivable that a then Tropical Cyclone either cuts across the Yucatan, or goes through the channel, and gets into the Gulf of Mexico on a net west-northwestly or northwestly course.

One to watch.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jul 22 2011 07:45 PM)


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LoisCane
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Re: Central Atlantic Wave Forecast Lounge [Re: WesnWylie]
      #90660 - Fri Jul 22 2011 06:23 PM

It's really hard to tell without a bonafide low pressure system and a more developed system.

Watching the ULL to it's NW and steering currents that would...could take it through the Straits but I don't think anything is a given right now. A stronger system would more of a northern component, however so far we are tracking a very healthy looking wave.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ft.html

A lot of possibilities, we should know a lot more tomorrow at this time.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #90661 - Fri Jul 22 2011 07:52 PM

Some of the models now keep the system generally south of the Greater Antilles. SHIPS does crank up this system in the long range, but right now there are no real signs of any organization. NHC has increased the chances for additional development within the next 48 hours to 30%.

Probably a good time for the annual reminder that this Forum is indeed the right place for any forecasts in the 5-day and beyond timeframe.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #90662 - Sat Jul 23 2011 08:27 AM

With 90L getting torn up a bit overnight it appears like the westward trend will continue, the closest model this morning to what likely will happen is the GFDL.

In short lounge forecast keeps it in the Caribbean moving slowly westward, it may do something once it nears the western Caribbean, but I do not expect it to get in the Gulf right now, and just stay generally west, perhaps into Central America.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #90663 - Sat Jul 23 2011 09:10 AM

NHC places the centerpoint of Invest 90L just off the west coast of Dominica this morning (23/12Z). What little is left of the system is moving to the west northwest at 20mph. System has no surface or mid-level circulation and with westerly shear aloft chances for any additional development are almost nil. At 12Z both Dominica observing sites reported a pressure of 1015MB which was up from 1013MB at 10Z.
ED


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doug
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Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #90664 - Sat Jul 23 2011 10:45 AM

Good morning:

There is some cyclonic turning in the few clouds near where the NHC places the center of 90L.
The convection north of the Greater Antilles is apparently from two sources according to the T.Discussion: diffluence along the western edge of the Atlantic ridge, and lift from the ULL south of western Cuba. Probably not much going to happen there.
However, if my short term memory is correct Arlene actually began from a similar upper feature after it crossed the Yucatan and the low level friction in the BOC allowed a LLC to develop. May that be the best chance for next development again, perhaps as this ULL slides toward the west?

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doug


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okihabu
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Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #90665 - Sat Jul 23 2011 10:47 AM

I agree with what Mike says about it splitting off into two seperate systems, the one on the north side will head up the East Coast and out to sea. The one to the south will have to make it through the wind shear and to survive. There is a front in the BOC that might have affect on its path if it survives, but it is still to early yet.

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Chuck Good


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WeatherNut
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Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #90667 - Sat Jul 23 2011 07:51 PM

Its looking much more impressive this evening. It seems to have found a spot with lower shear, and am even seeing some high level clouds starting to move westerly on the southern side. It still has to deal with Hispaniola, however, so we will see whats left after that

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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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doug
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Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #90669 - Mon Jul 25 2011 12:18 PM

The dynamic in the area south of Cuba caught a lot of ink today in the TWD. This is the same ULL that has lingered there for several days and now the low level energy of 90L is approaching from the east. Worth paying attention to, IMHO.
Amended: Cyclonic motion is noted to the NW of Jamaica and immediately south of E.Central Cuban coast, just to the west of the convective build up.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Mon Jul 25 2011 12:33 PM)


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