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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91319 - Tue Aug 16 2011 11:51 AM

The designation is back up again...it isobvious that dry air from the south is affecting the system as virtually no development is in the south or se quardrant. Tomorrow, as it move a few hundred more miles west, it may be in a more conducive spot for intensification. Thereafter is Central America.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Tue Aug 16 2011 11:56 AM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #91320 - Tue Aug 16 2011 11:54 AM

Oh, 93L is still viable, but not for another day or two, if then. As it is, it will be brushing by Hispaniola later today and tonight, so that will inhibit development too.

EDIT (3:35 PM ET): There appears to be some hint of a circulation at 14.4N; 68.5W with limited convection trying to form near it. Most of the heavy convection is still to the NE, though.

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Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6

Edited by MichaelA (Tue Aug 16 2011 03:35 PM)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91323 - Tue Aug 16 2011 10:10 PM

It looks like a lot more than a hint right now at 15.2N 70.2W
it also now has some good convection filling in now

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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Tue Aug 16 2011 10:11 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91329 - Wed Aug 17 2011 08:48 AM

Good Morning:
There is certainly a circulation at some level evident and more convection gathering around that circulation than any point in time so far. Today should be the day that determines if this system will become a bonafide cyclone. Movement seems to be slightly north of due west which should take it toward Belize.

11:47 a.m. RGB indicates that the gathering of convection arround a definite circulation center continues. Motion of that center is more wnw. If so, and it continues, the system will approach the NW extreme of the Carribean, between Cuba and Mexico. A trough extends off SW Florida to Cuba but it is moving out to the east. A surface high is west of 82w and exrtends down to about 20N. and covers the Central GOM . That will pull the system west. If the system remains relatively weak, based on what is now evident ,a track across the Northern Yucatan westerly would be my guess.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Wed Aug 17 2011 11:52 AM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #91344 - Thu Aug 18 2011 10:35 AM

For the first time, current Dvorak seems to be showing a definite LLC approx 15.7N/79.5W movement almost wnw.

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #91351 - Thu Aug 18 2011 11:41 AM

93L is looking more "healthy" now than it ever has on both the vis and RGB loops. Tracking well south of Grand Cayman. Folks in Belize should be on the lookout.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Depression 8 - Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91367 - Thu Aug 18 2011 11:29 PM

Invest 93L is now TD 8 moving toward the northern coast of Belize. About a 50/50 chance as to whether it can become a minimal TS before the system encounters the north shore of Honduras. Heavy rainfall potential for Honduras, Guatemala and Belize.
From NHC:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS.

ED


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Tropical Depression 8 - Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91380 - Fri Aug 19 2011 05:04 PM

Harvey seems to be ramping up in a hurry, as per NHC the SHIPS rapid intensity model is at 40% (probability of a 25kt increase in 24hrs)

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Tropical Depression 8 - Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91381 - Fri Aug 19 2011 05:18 PM

Recon is on the way and I think there is going to be a substantial pressure drop since the last recon. Small storms like this can intensify quickly, and its in an area of very high heat content that runs deep

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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