TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 29
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
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The models diverge rapidly starting now. If the BAMMs have a clue, (and I ain't betting on them), we should know by the morning, it should start turning east any time.
The 11pm data has it turning/wobbling west instead...
Needs to wobble real hard in the east direction by the morning or BAMM is right for the moment.
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It's been west of the prediction for the last 4 data points, not just the radical wobble to the west in the 11pm one.
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2011s9#
Perhaps it being west of predicted is related to the models shifting west in some mysterious way.
Edited by TheOtherRick (Wed Aug 24 2011 11:25 PM)
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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 29
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
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And the shifted a little to the west, but just a hair, and now, to end up with such a similar prediction, after not turning to the east at all, takes a rapid turn/wobble to the east, starting now.
No sign of it yet.
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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In response to many questions, here is a link where you can learn about the various models:
NHC Model Descriptions
When you get there, click on HTML.
The BAM suite are early models - first out, quickly computed and they are simplistic models. They are good for a first blush look at a developing new system, like an Invest. As the storm develops and intensifies they are just about useless because they are replaced by highly complex global models that have a much higher degree of accuracy. For a hurricane, look at models like the , , HWRF, , NGM, and . Some of these will perform well for a particular storm and not so good for the next (or previous) storm. Meteorologists at (and elsewhere) use model trends to determine the best models for each storm - and the good ones then adjust the track based on their individual experience and knowledge of atmospherics.
As I will usually state about two or three times each season, the model is NOT the forecast - it is an aid to assist in developing the forecast.
Cheers,
ED
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Bev
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
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On its current predicted track it looks like the island of Abaco will take a direct hit. If it maintains its current heading and speed, how long before they begin to feel H3 effects? I'm in communication with friends there and they aren't getting good detail data from official Bahamian sources. We have a home in Casuarina and friends there and in Marsh Harbour.
Thank you for any assistance.
Bev
(Long time fan since riding out at cat 4 under a staircase)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Quote:
On its current predicted track it looks like the island of Abaco will take a direct hit. If it maintains its current heading and speed, how long before they begin to feel H3 effects? I'm in communication with friends there and they aren't getting good detail data from official Bahamian sources. We have a home in Casuarina and friends there and in Marsh Harbour.
Thank you for any assistance.
Bev
(Long time fan since riding out at cat 4 under a staircase)
It will get progressively worse there today, in waves, with the worst probably around 2 - 4PM this afternoon.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The model is indicating the wield field may expand west to east quite drastically as it approaches North Carolina, strong winds may be felt quite far inland there and north if this occurs.
GFDL Animation
Note those winds are at the 700mb level, they will be less at the ground, but it means more tropical storm force area.
It also trended west at the 6Z model and now takes in inland and over DC and rides up through New York and up along the Northeastern Coast.
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 92
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Irene has been tracking the 'line' of Bahama Islands.
It's some kind of land interaction.
Kinda like the Fujiwhara Effect, people still deny that hurricanes,
will 'track' coastlines...
And not one Talking Head will utter the statement that you can NOT
evac 25 million.
The eye tracks anywhere near the Statue of Liberty and 13 ft of water all the way to
Canal St and the Holland Tunnel...
With Western LI getting hammered.
The area is already 8 plus inches over Avg for August.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Post deleted - the purpose of the site is to provide good information. If you pat yourself on the back, I'll pat your post elsewhere!
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 25 2011 06:32 PM)
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 92
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Hurricane Floyd - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd - CachedSimilar Floyd struck The Bahamas at peak strength, causing heavy damage. ... In total, Floyd was responsible for 57 fatalities and $4.5 billion (1999 USD; $5.93 billion ...
Floyd is the nearest we can get to Irene. Floyd was a TS went it Passed by New Jersey.
Wiki:
At this point, Hurricane Floyd was just east of the Bahamas. Floyd weakened slightly as it moved into the islands, striking Eleuthera Island and later making landfall on Abaco Island on September 14 while at the low end of the Category 4 range. Floyd turned north and paralleled the coast of Florida until making landfall near Cape Fear as a Category 2 storm on September 16. It returned to the ocean near Norfolk, Virginia, and traveled up the coasts of the Delmarva Peninsula and New Jersey as a tropical storm. It passed over Long Island and into New England.[32] Floyd caused record rainfall across the east coast, with Wilmington, North Carolina, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, setting 24-hour rainfall records of 15 in (380 mm) and 6.63 in (168 mm) in respectively. Portions of New England had rainfall totals nearing 11 in (280 mm). Floyd generated 9 to 10 ft (2.7 to 3.0 m) storm surges across North Carolina. There are 57 deaths directly blamed on Floyd, 56 in the United States and one on Grand Bahama. Most of the deaths were due to freshwater flooding in North Carolina. Floyd was one of the costliest hurricanes on record, with an estimated $4.5 billion (1999 USD; $5.93 billion 2011 USD) in damage.[32]
IF Irene goes over the Statue of Liberty at Cat 2....
$100 Billion...;}
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Hey me too so far but i can only be 100% right if the storm does not make landfall.I said it would skirt but not make a landfall and i still will go with what i said back then also that it will skirt the easy coast but i still think it will not make a landfall as a hurricane on the US mainland.
Again just IMO always follow the not what we say this is just what I/WE think
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cooper13
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
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Quote:
http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/images/2011/sbstorm9/sbplot20110824-2059.gif
This is as of 8pm if you look at the past trck I assume that yellow is BAMS green is BAMD and the orangish color is a mix between BAMS and the UKMET model
This is what me and THEOTHERRICK are looking at and if you look back over the last couple of days it shows the colors of the models that were most accurately followed. Even as a CAT 1,2 and 3 storm or are we reading this wrong? IT just seems as of lately that it is startin to follow the UKMET model as you can see here.
Actually, I believe you are reading it wrong. The past track is not color coded the same as the model tracks. The past track is coded to show the measured strength of the storm. So in this case, the green is when it was a tropical storm, yellow is Cat 1, orange is Cat 2, red is Cat 3, etc. See this table for comparison:
Irene history
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Midday Globals, takes it along into the outer banks and along the coast into western Long island Sunday afternoon. Euro pretty much the same (but more up the Hudson River). more the same.
There is more than the usual confidence in the s forecast track of Irene, please plan appropriately.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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I haven't looked at everything but what I have looked at I think a nudging back to the west is justified. The Bermuda subtropical upper ridge has built to back over 594 decameters and the Mid-Continental subtropical upper ridge has slightly weakened over the past 24 hours to 595 decameters and shifted north and west. SW winds aloft along the east coast are indicative of the influence of the Bermuda ridge where inland winds veer sharply to the east under the influence of the Mid-C ridge. The upper low and longwave trough have retrograded westward in response to shortwaves moving across the US/Canadian border and into the trough. This shift and building of the Bermuda ridge will induce a south to north flow. I think our streak of hurricanes not making landfall will be over Saturday or Sunday. The NE USA has been wet all summer; despite a weaker hurricane it's impacts are likely to be more severe.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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As far as comparisons...Hazel (54) and Gloria (85) might be better comparisons. The projected track of Irene, however, is much more devastating than either of those storms since the center could possibly be just west of NYC and the surge would be much greater if you were on the right side of the storm. There is a very good youtube video of 's (with the late John Hope) coverage of Gloria (which is the best comparison so far). It is 5 parts but worth watching
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-19c4USwM_E
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Thu Aug 25 2011 03:18 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Have I missed something? I just watched a 40 minute radar loop (Miami) and the center did not move. At 14 MPH I would have expected about ten miles and that would have been clearly detectable on the radar loop???
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doug
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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I doesn't look like it is moving much to me either.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Here's a map with Irene, Floyd, Bob, Hazel, and Gloria map link plotted. These have come up before.
Irene is still struggling with multiple eyewalls but it still seems to be moving Long term radar may help.
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k___g
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
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Based on the long range radar it appears that Irene is moving more WNW than forecast. If this continues, major changes are about to occur.
Post moved to more appropriate forum.
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Aug 25 2011 11:23 PM)
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Wingwiper
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 8
Loc: Florida
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If it's moving, it isn't by much...
This link is a bit off, but you can drag the image; then start the loop - Fast speed is best, but it isn't very fast:
Intellicast Radar Loop
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GlenJohnson
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Waldo Florida 29.79N 82.17W
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2013 Forecast - 20,12,6
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