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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Rina Forecast Lounge
      #92360 - Mon Oct 24 2011 01:04 AM

TD 18 is now Tropical Storm Rina in the western Caribbean Sea located northeast of the eastern coast of Honduras. Movement is to the NNW at about 7 knots. The 24/00Z GFS stalls Rina in the Caribbean Sea to the east of the Yucatan and south of 20N for the next 8 days with blocking high pressure firmly in place to the north of the storm - certainly an interesting solution. The NHC doesn't pull Rina to 20N for 5 days, so the implication is for a slow moving system.

Another implication is that model runs on Rina are likely to remain divergent for awhile given the slow forward motion and the uncertainty of influence by any short wave moving well to Rina's north in the next week.

It looks like the track forecasts for Rina may get interesting and varied. Post your own projections for Rina's development and progress here.
ED


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 821
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92363 - Mon Oct 24 2011 11:57 AM

The models seem to be behind the actual data somewhat and are a bit slow on the intensity build up, which is occurring quicker than first estimated. That will effect their solutions. Also, too early to predict the intensity of the front and its timing into the GOM. It is anticipated it will be equal to or stronger than last week's front. That being said, I anticipate a slightly stronger situation over the southern Florida peninsula starting Friday into Sunday. I again look for Punta Gorda south on the West Coast, the Keys and Miami to receive the most impact. Whether it remains a storm,or not (which I doubt as SST's are at or below 70-72),may be irrelevant as up to gale force and heavy rain over that sector could be reasonable. NHC is hinting at a rapid exit over Cuba, but that depends on the intensity and the poleward drift into Friday. The afternoon's model runs based on hunter data will likely clear the field a bit.

--------------------
doug


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92366 - Mon Oct 24 2011 12:37 PM

The upcoming cool snap for the weekend is on par with the most recent however the upper air pattern does not have the amplication the most recent had and flow appears more zonal. I'm looking at the upper winds aloft and for the moment the GOM, FL are closed with winds aloft near 60 knots. The only question I have in the long range is whether Rina will be pulled up by this major shortwave or be left behind. There's simply no reliable model data to lock in on a given scenario.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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adam s
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92382 - Mon Oct 24 2011 04:05 PM

Rina is on the same track as Wilma right now. Timing will be key. Rina is an area of low shear and a strengthing. Rapid intensification will occur tonight. I think Rina will become a cat 2 storm by tonight.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 24 2011 04:15 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92383 - Mon Oct 24 2011 05:03 PM

For the most part, the Gulf of Mexico is running at or above 78F (roughly 25.5C), and remains plenty warm to sustain a tropical cyclone. (See graphics below). It is probably very debatable whether or not a relatively small slice of sub 26C SSTs along a coastline would have much, if any impact. I would submit that a tropical cyclone would almost have to stall out over such a small area of less favorable waters to have a dramatic effect.

AOML Current Gulf of Mexico SSTs


Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity
(Based on SSTs only - many other factors are not considered in this map, which comes from research by Dr. Kerry Emanuel (LINK)



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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #92384 - Mon Oct 24 2011 08:26 PM

Considering the models vary greatly on timing would love to see some discussion here as to where this storm might go and more so when...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92386 - Tue Oct 25 2011 08:55 AM

I was just looking at the visible loop and it appears that Rina is expanding in overall diameter. I also noticed that the area forecast discussions are beginning to hint that the ridging conditions are not as certain as before. It looks like this is going to be a difficult forecast and will be interesting to watch as long as the storm stays out over water and does not harm people along its path.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #92387 - Tue Oct 25 2011 01:42 PM

she is consolidating nicely with a solid core/center easy to follow, nice outflow... just sitting there and set to intensify slowly and solidly

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
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Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92388 - Tue Oct 25 2011 05:30 PM

5pm NHC track shifted north, perhaps just the first in a couple northward nudges that they may have to make. The models are still split, but a lot of this comes down to the fact that Rina is far stronger than any model currently thinks she is except for the high-resolution GFDL and HWRF. This whole situation is very similar to the forecast progression for Hurricane Paula last year, also in October and also a Cat 2 in this area of the Caribbean, but there are some big differences between Paula and Rina that will cause corresponding differences in track.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92389 - Tue Oct 25 2011 06:56 PM

Quote:

Considering the models vary greatly on timing would love to see some discussion here as to where this storm might go and more so when...




I haven't looked at the forecasts in depth, yet.
My current thinking is the West Coast of Florida south of Tampa for the Caution Area.
With those south of Ft Myers being in a Higher level of Caution Area.

The Current Cone covers the West Coast south of Tampa Bay, the Keys and the Florida Southeast Coast south of Jupiter.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/204535.shtml?gm_track#contents



Edited by danielw (Tue Oct 25 2011 07:35 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #92391 - Tue Oct 25 2011 08:07 PM

From the 12Z 25OCT11, GFS model run.
Forecast hour; MM/DD;GMT;Temp;Dew Point;Wind Direction;Wind Speed(kts)

Key West onset of Tropical Storm force winds:
78 10/28 18Z 2pm Friday afternoon 81 75 from 168deg 36kts
Peak Winds:
81 10/28 21Z 5pm Friday afternoon 80 75 from 197deg 43kts

Ft Myers onset of breezy conditions:
78 10/28 18Z 2pm Friday afternoon 79 72 from 072deg 14kts
Peak Winds:
87 10/29 03Z 11pm Friday night 73 71 from 019deg 25kts

Miami onset of breezy conditions:
78 10/28 18Z 2pm Friday afternoon 83 74 from 138deg 12kts
Peak Winds:
90 10/29 06Z 2am!! Saturday Morning 79 74 from 176deg 33kts

Palm Beach onset of breezy conditions:
78 10/28 18Z 2pm Friday afternoon 80 73 from 090deg 10kts
Peak Winds:
96 10/29 12Z 8am!! Saturday morning 76 73 from 347deg 28kts


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Owlguin
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #92392 - Tue Oct 25 2011 08:14 PM

There is so much inconsistency from all the models and each run that forecastng this beyond a couple days seems nearly pointless.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #92394 - Tue Oct 25 2011 08:39 PM

I agree. The above forecasted wind speeds were posted to show the Possibility of the wind speeds actually occurring and when they would occur.
I will update this information again tomorrow. Mainly to see if the models are verifying and to update the time of onset.

Plan your work, and work your plan~ Wade Guice (Former Director of Harrison County,MS Civil Defense)


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Keith B
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Loc: FL, Orange County 28.59N 81.19W
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #92396 - Tue Oct 25 2011 10:06 PM

NHC has sent out their high altitude plane to sample the upper conditions. Maybe that will give the models some better feedback.

Anyone from Tampa south needs to watch Rina.

Keith


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: Keith B]
      #92397 - Tue Oct 25 2011 11:42 PM

Looking at the water vapor picture tonight it looks like Rina could run out of moist air before she gets much further, She looks rather ragged could she be just laying low for the short term?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #92398 - Wed Oct 26 2011 12:08 AM

Not sure why some models seem to show her weakening as she has looked good all day. There is a rich supply of moisture to her ESE from 97 that she could tap into.

Interesting storm to watch and to compare and contrast to other similar storms.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92400 - Wed Oct 26 2011 09:01 AM

Drier air and shear are the suspected culprits. Also has the move NW'd begun the center seems to be sitting on 18N?

--------------------
doug


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92401 - Wed Oct 26 2011 11:08 AM

Well, here's what I see. Looks to me as if Rina has peaked. That is not to say that she could'nt "bomb out" one more convective surge, thus perhaps causing her eye to become temporarily re-defined again. Her core CDO really seems fragile and as a whole, this hurricane looks highly susceptable to a rapid weakening once the southwesterly shear begins to overtake her. On one hand it is possible that Rina's initially small wind field not only aided in her fast "spin up", but this factor may have been one contributing reason as to why the dry air (consistantly never to far to the storms North and West) has yet to fully be entrained into her circulation. Rina's wind field may have expanded a little bit but overall her overall envelope of circulation seems to offer very little to deflect even moderate upper level shear. It no longer appears that her "heat engine" is nearly exhausting any extent of westerly outflow, as noted by today's visible and Water Vapor Sat. loops. Aside from helping to maintain her core vacuum thus allowing pressures to continue to fall ( or maintain ), a strong outflow can at least temporarily mitigate some moderate upper level shear. My guess is that we will soon see anywhere from a 4-10 mb rise in surface pressures and will only maintain her identity as a hurricane for perhaps an additional 24-30 hr's.

That all said, I can see "one potential solution" to Rina maintaining her core structure, longer. Not only that, but this would be the one somewhat reasonable solution that "could" result in a Florida Keys / extreme S. Florida landfall - as a small minimal hurricane. . Rina would need to slowly track EAST of her projected forecast track and almost immediately commence a NNW motion. At the same time Rina would need to move quite slow, so NOT to move as far north as forecasted This would aid in her remaining under the upper level anticyclone which is forcast to start sliding eastward, and all the while maintaining her overall vertical structure. Then, starting as soon as about 24 hours, perhaps when the beginning influences of the 500mb flow begin to influence a N.E. to ENE motion, Rina would potentially be close enough and under the edge of the upper high and still only marginally being impacted by encroaching SW upper shear.. Then short term motion would cause Rina to move near or over the Western tip of Cuba, all the while increasing her forward motion. This N.E. ( or ENE ) motion would help negate the Southwesterly shear thus weakening would be slower to occur. Theoretically, I could see Rina on such a track that could permit the integrety of the hurricane's structure to maintain itself until well north of the N. Bahamas.

For this to happen Rina would need to start moving NNW ( or even halt any westward motion during the next 6 hours or so ), and then even start to show an "eastward" component of motion ( i.e. NNE ) as early as tomorrow afternoon. I have not seen any model support to consider this much of a possibility.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #92402 - Wed Oct 26 2011 11:31 AM

Thanks for the discussion. Enjoyed it because it seems there are a lot of questions regarding Rina.

I have a question on whether this front is going to clear Cuba or bomb out in the Florida Straits. They keep changing the timing on Rina moving towards Florida and they have her hovering over the north coast of Cuba going east. Trying to figure this out as it seems she would stay further south or grab the front as a stronger storm (minimal hurricane or storm like Floyd of 87) and ride the frontal boundary.

Something seems missing here....

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92403 - Wed Oct 26 2011 12:19 PM

The last real storm of this season is headed toward the Bahamas. Follow the official NHC forcast.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 821
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92405 - Wed Oct 26 2011 01:24 PM

The scenario Weathernet posted above explains why Rina will not 'bottom out" (deepen) in the Florida straits.
Looking at the fixes in the last three previous advisories gives me the impression that a NW to NNW motion (more to the right) is setting in today. NNW would keep Rina off shore. Based on current forward speed projections it is not expected to interact with land until potentially Saturday after the turn occurs which puts Cuba into play.
However, I am beginning to think this whole thing may speed up a bit. I think this is the only way Florida gets into any serious danger; as, if Rina increases speed to 8-10 and pops out into the southern GOM as a cat 1 and then turns ene to e, the probability of Florida being seriously threatened increases.
There is too much uncertainty about the strength of the High pressure ridge now influencing Rina's path to make e totally discount Florida as a potential land fall threat.

--------------------
doug


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: k___g]
      #92407 - Wed Oct 26 2011 03:50 PM

The latest satellite from the University of Hawaii meteorology page looks like Rina is starting to pull it together again. Of course wind speeds and in depth information about the atmosphere can not be seen from these public satellites. She is going to stay interesting.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 821
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Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #92408 - Wed Oct 26 2011 05:00 PM

Track shifitng right (south) and lots of uncertainty into Saturday. Nobody has a handle on the trough and the high pressure system now to the east of the system.
Looks like some of the more usually reliable odels want to bottle Rina in virtually the same general area for her duration.

--------------------
doug


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Loc: South Florida
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92411 - Thu Oct 27 2011 12:20 AM

I don't know. She looks good to me tonight, at least at this hour. I gave her one last look and was surprised she looked this good.

I also can't really find the strong front that was spoken of earlier. I imagine it will light up the radars and sats tomorrow but tonight all I see is Rina sitting there looking back at me.

The high will weaken. Upwelling should be taking some edge off of her. She moves slow and without a strong front she has nothing to grab her fast.... yes, definitely one to keep watching as she "hangs in there"

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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