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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC?
      #92821 - Sun Jun 24 2012 03:54 AM Attachment (215 downloads)

As of this posting, it still remains unsure exactly where T.S. Debby will track. However, given the persistant relocation of this very tilted and sheared storm and coupled with latest 0Z model guidance shift, it does appear that there is greater likelyhood of a N.Central Florida landfall.

Once initialized as a storm today, one may note a nearly immediate westward forecasted motion with the "cone of error" at 5 days expanding to cover the W. Coastline of Louisiana and all Coastal Texas. To my recollection, this may mark the first time that I can remember that NHC may miss all "cone forecast points. An illustration "link" of original track forecast may be clicked on above this post.

Though when initially pondered as a big league "swing and a miss", perhaps the more salient point here is that what makes this missed forecast stand out so much may very well be the level of increasing accuracy that NHC has exhibited over recent years and how we have all come to expect that. So if that be the case, they deserve a mulligan. (Heck, when I'm out playing golf i'm usually needing more than one!)

Edited by weathernet (Sun Jun 24 2012 03:57 AM)


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


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Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? [Re: weathernet]
      #92822 - Sun Jun 24 2012 04:37 AM

Waking up this morning to find a rather large swing to the right in the models with NHC now way to left. ECMWF now coming in around eastern LA with many shifting to the right of that. Maybe the GFS is closer to correct after all???

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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? [Re: weathernet]
      #92823 - Sun Jun 24 2012 04:40 AM

Thank you Lois! It was hard for me to keep an eye on that Western tract as we are getting hammered here in the Tampa Bay area with wave after wave of wind and rain!

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? [Re: kromdog]
      #92824 - Sun Jun 24 2012 07:03 AM

W'net: Too early for that analysis to bear out.The ULL off the Tex. coast is showing signs of breaking down and retrograding toward the west as the flow around the large ridge, generally from the ene, is taking control. There are signs of increased organization on the west and sw parts of the storm, I still agree that the Miss/LA coast is most probable for land fall however. The dynamic remains fluid but, some consistency in the upper pattern may begin to develop today.

--------------------
doug


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? [Re: doug]
      #92825 - Sun Jun 24 2012 08:05 AM

Way to early to call. Indeed Debby is probably a bit stronger than she was last night. I haven't checked the buoy obs yet. Radar and Satellite obs indicate the convection has wrapped around from the NW Quad to the SW Quad in the last 2 hours. The is a nice? thunderstorm cluster at the western edge of what appears to be a CDO. It's has a very thin appearance at first light. New Orleans radar on long range confirms the convection wrapping around Debby. Even though the altitude of the radar at long range is very high the wrap is still visible on the loop.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes



Wind shear is relaxing on the western side of Debby. The following images are 7 hours apart. In the bottom image notice how much more white is visible on the western half of the storm especially near the MS/ AL line.
It appears that early signs of outflow are present. The small wispy horsetail looking white clouds. Cirrus fingers.






Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 24 2012 08:14 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? [Re: doug]
      #92826 - Sun Jun 24 2012 08:11 AM

To be fair... I think the 3 day was not that bad, it's the 5 day I have questions on ... as well as discounting the other reliable model as much as was done when they went with the European.

Recon shows a strengthening system ...though would like to have buoy data from the surface directly and they have upgraded her to 60 mph with deepening surface pressure.

I think there is an over emphasis on the "trough" as being the main steering current vs the other smaller ones. As in IF the frontal boundary goes deep then... I think there are a myriad of factors here, the front being just one of them.

The ULL has been a player, both ULLs and high pressure to her north which was previously blocking her northern movement.

I think it would have been better for the NHC to make a big circle in the Gulf and later take that circle in a specific direction, because at 3 mph forward speed she can easily sit there in the center of the North Gulf of Mexico pumping tropical moisture from the deep tropics up over Florida for days... while piling water up onto the beaches.

I think a tight cone with a disorganized TS is like treating a fruit fly like it's a mosquito.

But a track towards Mobile Bay has always been to be a possible one... then bending back to the right or even dipping back and circling the Gulf again.

The front does not need to be "that strong" for it to exert an influence over Debby...

It's also possible as the ULL digs down into the Gulf...Debby on her right side will simply bounce north caught up in the flow... with or without the front.

I thought it was a gutsy call to totally discount a very consistent model .... mulligan maybe, let's move on and see if Debby moves today.

Ps... the warnings are going up to the east as the models shift east.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Debby Vortex [Re: danielw]
      #92827 - Sun Jun 24 2012 08:17 AM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 11:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2012
Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 11:19:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°52'N 86°29'W (27.8667N 86.4833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 167 miles (269 km) to the SSW (197°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,371m (4,498ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 119° at 32kts (From the ESE at ~ 36.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:00:00Z


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? [Re: LoisCane]
      #92829 - Sun Jun 24 2012 08:23 AM

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
OCHOLOCKONEE RIVER. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPANSION OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK NOR INTENSITY.


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? [Re: LoisCane]
      #92837 - Sun Jun 24 2012 09:04 AM

I know there is a High Pressure area involved but the NHC cone would sure seem to make more sense if it was flipped 180 degrees! Very wet here in Tampa!


http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/pie_None_anim.gif

Edited by kromdog (Sun Jun 24 2012 09:10 AM)


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Littlebit
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 46
Loc: Plant City, FL
Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? [Re: kromdog]
      #92839 - Sun Jun 24 2012 09:24 AM

We are definitely on the wet side of Debby. Plant City, FL will need to build an ark soon.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? [Re: Littlebit]
      #92841 - Sun Jun 24 2012 10:21 AM

Is there any chance that there is a vying center to the NE of the center that is trying to wrap as it moves inland over the Big Bend Area of Florida?

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Is there any chance of a Gulfstream Jet going out into the area... or is she too close to land and there is enough data to figure this out?

note link posted in other forum category

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/pie_None_anim.gif

looks as if it wants to close off around that area........ but reading radar is funny and fools you often

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/

Edited by LoisCane (Sun Jun 24 2012 10:25 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Admin Note [Re: weathernet]
      #92862 - Sun Jun 24 2012 01:12 PM

I have no idea why this thread was placed in the Storm Forum since it still emphasizes long range model output. Anyway, I'm moving this thread to the Lounge and since we've already got a thread going in the lounge on Debby, I'll lock this one.

Probably a good time to remind everyone to review the lead thread in the 'Site Updates, Questions and Suggestions' forum titled 'Where Should I Put My Post?'
ED


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