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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2015 Forecast Lounge

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JMII
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Reged: Thu
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Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #95817 - Fri Aug 28 2015 07:43 PM

Quote:

...after a decidedly westward track for the better part of the day.




Actually more like 2 days of marching due west despite what the forecast says. I think she is all but done but in order to error on the side of caution the NHC is not going to give the all clear just yet. Personally I think we've seen the last of Erika in terms of an "system", however as a depression there seems to be enough moisture to give Haiti and Cuba some serious rainfall totals. After that I just don't how she can regroup much if at all. She would have to run nearly due north for another day to clear the shear and Cuban land mass to reach warm water... and that scenario just seems impossible.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #95820 - Fri Aug 28 2015 08:46 PM

The fay Like scenario (rainfall), along the west or just offshore the west coast of Florida seems the most likely right now. The upper level feature in the Gulf is just going to block anything go much further west than the Panhandle, and the steering currents collapse, so rain event seems most likely. (Although I'm still waiting it to clear Hispaniola/Caribbean to do more guesswork)

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Owlguin
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95826 - Fri Aug 28 2015 10:19 PM

It seems like it has been a long time since the NHC and models have been so far off. She's headed due west the whole way since the Islands and continues to do so. Wonder what this means.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #95838 - Sat Aug 29 2015 06:56 AM

Erika remains weak this mornign with the center difficult to track model runs have been inaccurate and last nights mostly dissipated the storm, and keep it just to the west coast of Florida, but with much of the convection and rain being dragged over Florida


This includes the EURO and the GFS, the GFS is closer to the 5AM track.


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Owlguin
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95839 - Sat Aug 29 2015 07:11 AM

Is it possible that I see a center north of the east tip of Cuba?

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #95850 - Sat Aug 29 2015 10:12 AM

Going to use the lounge to discuss possible regeneration.

This morning's model runs were garbage because of the bad position south of Cuba.

The 12Z guidance is the first look at later



I'm not a fan of intensity models, but it does give you an idea when the best chance for regeneration would be.



Basically Monday in the Eastern Gulf, which the guidance suggest should be along or just west of the Florida coastline is probably the best shot for regeneration. Looking for the possibility starting tomorrow once it gets away from Cuba, but if it does, Monday would be more likely.

Gut tells me it won't regenerate and the shear in the Gulf right now is likely to keep it that way. But watching satellite tells me I may be wrong as well.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95861 - Sat Aug 29 2015 02:15 PM

from the Tropical Weather Outlook at 2PM:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Storm Erika. The remnants of Erika, a trough of low
pressure, are currently located near central Cuba and the central
Bahamas and moving west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. This system
is producing disorganized thunderstorm activity, and recent
satellite wind data indicate it is producing winds to tropical storm
force. Upper-level winds are currently not favorable for
re-development of the system into a tropical cyclone. However,
conditions may become more conducive Sunday or Monday while it moves
northwestward to northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of re-development, the remnants of Erika are expected to
spread locally heavy rains and gusty winds across portions of the
Bahamas, central and eastern Cuba, and central and southern Florida
during the next couple of days. Additional information on this
system can be found in marine forecasts and local forecast products
issued by the National Weather Service and the meteorological
services of Cuba and the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

So just under 50/50... 40%


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cieldumort
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Re: Erika/90L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #95879 - Sun Aug 30 2015 01:20 AM

Interesting that during the daylight hours on the 29th we were able to make out several of the who-knows-how-many LLCs and MLCs and other swirlies there were altogether associated with Erika, but it does finally appear that her primary LLC is pulling ashore tonight along the Keys, and will get absorbed by the front.

Odds of the most prominent mid-level vort associated with Erika (which is still running behind the LLC now pulling ashore) burrowing down to the surface seem to be declining by the hour in the face of increasing shear, analyzed to be running between 20-30 knots.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #95894 - Mon Aug 31 2015 02:06 PM

12Z GFS today has a crazy scenario where the remnants of Erika cross over north Florida Tues/Wed enter the gulf and develop Southeast of NC on Thursday/Friday then loop back over FL/GA line on September 9th. The euro is weaker, but also shows something close.


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Lamar-Plant City
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Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95896 - Tue Sep 01 2015 10:13 AM

Look at the Tampa Radar....that area of heavy rain is showing more an more signs of spinning since Monday evening....could be a leftover LLC from Erika trying to get going out there?? LOTS of convection exploding this morning just west and northwest of Tampa/St Pete....

Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Tue Sep 01 2015 10:18 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95897 - Tue Sep 01 2015 11:19 AM

Ex-Erika is pushing a lot of convection up over the gulf this morning, if this persists through the day chances may go up again.

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Tazmanian93
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95898 - Tue Sep 01 2015 12:06 PM

Mike, was it me, my eyes or did I notice some level of C.C. Rotation even yesterday afternoon with Erica remnants?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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doug
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95899 - Tue Sep 01 2015 12:09 PM

Yeah to chime in here...recent radar is suggestive of a vortex west of Pasco/Hernando Counties and the precipitation on the east and southeast is increasing and is being pushed on shore of Pinellas and even Manatee counties. Satellite visible review is consistent with a rotation moving NE'wd over the past several hours without any convective support and has now become surrounded with convective activity when heretofore there was none. Could just be the cycle.
According to the 8am discussion this has been analyzed as a weak trough that will remain stationary as a ridge builds down from North Carolina. If there is something trying to develop it may have time. But this is a definite change from earlier this morning when all was 30-40 miles off shore...Just what this part of W Central Florida needs...more heavy rain..
It does not appear to be the large open trough like feature it was yesterday.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Tue Sep 01 2015 12:59 PM)


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EMS
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Posts: 35
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95900 - Tue Sep 01 2015 07:46 PM Attachment (313 downloads)

Possible COC going ashore in Big Bend area?

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #95901 - Wed Sep 02 2015 09:26 AM

It's over south Georgia now, and based on surface observations, chances were astronomically low before, but I don't think it's ever going to reform.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95933 - Fri Sep 11 2015 02:33 PM

Interesting read from the NHC on what went wrong during the forecasting for Erika:

https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2015/09/10/after-further-review-tropical-storm-erika/

Notice how much larger the margin of error is at 5 days when dealing with these weak systems.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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