Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2019 and ends on Nov 30th, 2019.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 69 (Michael) , Major: 69 (Michael) Florida - Any: 69 (Michael) Major: 69 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2010s >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
96L Lounge
      #96404 - Wed Jul 27 2016 09:55 AM

This topic is for the Atlantic wave first designated on 7/27/2016 as 96L. It's located just off the coast of Africa moving generally westward.

Models typically move it west, and some intensity models bring it up quickly, then down quickly.

The GFS model never really gets a good hold of it and loses it after a few days.

Euro doesn't have a good handle in it, but generally brings it west/weak.

CMC doesn't do much with it either, but does pick up the wave west of it.

NavGem just brings it more or less straight west, weak.

The general early track model guidance takes it generally west or just north of due west.

Basically something to watch, but nothing too definite yet. The basin might actually pop up other areas before this one gets going, if it does.

Lounge rededicated to Invest 96L
~Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Jul 30 2016 05:51 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 96L and 97L (East Atlantic Waves) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #96405 - Thu Jul 28 2016 03:51 PM

Combining 96/97L Lounge until something happens to one or both of them, development or dissipation wise.

Models are on the fence for developing both, but both have a shot, the wave more to the west 97L, has a chance to enter the Caribbean and may be the one to watch next week. 96L may develop, but will likely have a harder time crossing the atlantic.

One thing that's different from last year, the shear and general environment is much more favorable and water temps are VERY high in a good section of the western Atlantic. If it were last year at this time I'd give much less chance of development to either wave. This year, however, there's a good shot one or both of these systems will develop.

If 97L enters the Caribbean, land interaction will be a factor. Based on the Euro, Timing for potential impacts in the eastern Caribbean are late Saturday into Sunday. Puerto Rico on Sunday night as a tropical storm.

This is moving quickly, so development intensity wise may be difficult.

Lounging further:
The Euro has it near the Florida straits on Wednesday, then into the Gulf late next week, and somewhere along the northern gulf a week from Saturday. Never really gets too organized, though. GFS really doesn't give it much.

CMC Keeps it south of PR, moves over Jamaica Monday, stronger than the other two models, and into the Yucatan Wednesday, as a hurricane, then landfalling just south of tx/mx border as a strong hurricane on Sat, Aug 6th.





Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 96L and 97L (East Atlantic Waves) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #96407 - Thu Jul 28 2016 06:23 PM

18Z GFS never really gets 97L going, and stays a bit south. It's moving too quickly. 96L makes it most of the way west before falling apart.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: 96L and 97L (East Atlantic Waves) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #96408 - Fri Jul 29 2016 08:43 AM

question is if #96L gets designation before giving up the ghost to dust and dry air, huge high.
really far out and not moving as fast as 97L but.. looks good momentarily on Dvorak and Funktop as well as awesome on Visible

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 96L and 97L (East Atlantic Waves) Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #96409 - Fri Jul 29 2016 08:50 AM

96L looks like it will develop at some point, 97L, not so much.

GFS Never develops 97L, and the Euro doesn't either. It moves too fast and brings some rain to the islands.

96L GFS Develops, but it falls apart by the time it reaches the western Atlantic. It's got a similar setup as Dorian in 2013 did, Dorian's track plots. Dorian was a late July cape verde storm that fell apart before reaching the islands, then reformed briefly as a Tropical Depression
off the coast of Florida, but never made landfall before falling apart again.

Old articles about Dorian here and it reforming here. Overall a fairly forgettable system.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 96L and 97L (East Atlantic Waves) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #96411 - Fri Jul 29 2016 04:15 PM

97L on the 12Z model runs stays weak most of the time, but starts to gain strength in the far western Caribbean. GFS moves it into the Bay of Campeche a week from tomorrow, and the Euro takes it offshore of Texas a week from tomorrow (as a tropical storm).

96L gains a bit of strength on the GFS but falls apart by Monday. Euro does similar, and brings rain to the NE Caribbean a week from today from it.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 96L and 97L (East Atlantic Waves) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #96419 - Sun Jul 31 2016 11:21 AM

Chances have dropped to 0 for 96L, but long range models still suggest the energy will be worth watching beyond day 5, Bahamas/NE of the Leewards. So I'll update if anything changes there, but odds are nothing really happens with 96L.

Ultra long range shows mid August perhaps being VERY busy with other activity, though.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #96427 - Mon Aug 01 2016 01:16 AM

That hurricane that the 01/00Z GFS plows into Brownsville mid-August is the regenerated energy of 96L. Still worth keeping an eye on that system as it crosses the Atlantic.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 4 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 4495

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center