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Archives 2010s >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
GASTON LOUNGE
      #96494 - Tue Aug 16 2016 10:00 PM



A rather large African Easterly Wave and associated pouch, P22L, is nearing the westernmost tip of the continent. This wave has model support for development late this week into next. Both wave pouch P21L (shown exiting Africa in the image above) and Invest 98L (SIX) ahead of it look likely to help mix out some of the huge swaths of dry, stable air in the region, and given other factors, this could be one to watch for potential impacts further west late next week.

This wave is not yet Invest tagged, but will likely be so later this week and we will update the title as needed.

This is arguably looking like the most vigorous Cape Verde Season the Atlantic has seen in several years.

Title edited to clearly differentiate from P21L and add INVEST 90L tag. Updated to TD 7. Updated to Gaston.


Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 25 2016 12:55 AM)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: Large Wave P22L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96495 - Tue Aug 16 2016 10:56 PM

P22L is absolutely huge. Have to watch that one..

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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: Large Wave P22L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96498 - Thu Aug 18 2016 12:11 AM

GFS only model I see right now giving P22L a shot - stays 15N-20N all the way to 50W. The other models I looked at have a re-curve well East of the U.S. Mainland. That said, I'll wait for the mets here to get a better read as time goes by. Looks impressive this early.

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Large Wave P22L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96501 - Thu Aug 18 2016 11:44 AM


Above: NWS surface analysis at 0600z Aug 18

An associated low center, seen here on this map along the Monsoon Trof, has become more evident in the past 24 hours. Several models continue to do something with the second wave its associated Low, but recently some have tended to suggest earlier development and a track out the escape hatch behind Fiona.

This is all very early and speculative, with this wave and associated Low still to even exit western Africa. Conditions for development at this time in the central to eastern Atlantic are far from ideal, which is actually more reason to think that model runs developing the wave sooner rather than later could be overdoing it, and as such, the wave could get further west. (Again, way too early to know).


A quick rundown from the 00Z runs of select global models:
ECMWF: Development by Day 7 before 40W and then recurves it out to sea
GFS: Carries the feature as an open wave and then mostly shears it out by 60W near end of the month
NAVGEM: Apparent merger with first wave and development by Day 7 before 40W near 18N


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Afr. Wave P22L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96509 - Sat Aug 20 2016 02:26 AM


Above: Large Wave w Pouch P22L Sat 20 Aug, 0230z

The large wave behind Invest 99L is set to enter the far eastern Atlantic today, and we will be updating the title with its INVEST tag soon. This feature started out quite a bit larger than 99L ahead of it, and despite that, 99L is doing quite well ... possibly an indication that this wave will fair as good, or even better.. Odds for development are now set at an arguably conservative 40% within 5 days by NHC, as of this post.

Development possibly as early as about the time it passes by the Cape Verde Islands, with a forecast that calls for a gradual turn to the west-northwest, or even northwest and out to sea if it really ramps up, but it's just too soon to tell. Despite its impressive look on satellite, it may yet be held in check a little longer than expected by the warm, dry, dusty Saharan Air Layer around it. Either way, this wave bears close watching over the next one or two weeks.


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Afr. Wave P22L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96510 - Sat Aug 20 2016 03:23 AM


Above: Very Large Wave w/Pouch P22L 0700z Aug 20


An even more recent IR of the large and well developed tropical wave about to enter the far eastern Atlantic.

This system may actually hold together upon hitting water, or quickly reorganize, and thus pose a risk of bringing unusually heavy weather to the Cabo Verde Islands (TBD).


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: INVEST 90L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96513 - Sat Aug 20 2016 10:27 PM


Above: Invest 90L entering the far eastern Atlantic


Low pressure associated with the large and robust wave we have been tracking across far western Africa for several days is now exiting the coast of Senegal there, and entering the far eastern Atlantic ocean. This system is now being tracked as an Invest, 90L.

INVEST 90L is starting out considerably larger and somewhat more robust that its predecessors. In addition, some of the dry and inhibiting Saharan Air Layer that has been in abundance in the eastern Atlantic so far this season has been mixed out by Fiona and INVEST 99L ahead of it. All things considered, 90L looks to have a better chance of early development than these others, and that is reflected in the 2-Day (30%) and 5-Day (70%) odds given it by NHC.

Movement is expected to be westward, with a gradual turn to the northwest over the next several days. Most models develop this into a tropical cyclone way out in the eastern Atlantic, making this a fish spinner, but it needs to be watched.


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: INVEST 90L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96524 - Mon Aug 22 2016 02:03 PM

Invest 90L is forecast by NHC to become a Tropical Depression at any time within the next 48 hours (100% per NHC), however, recent microwave passes show that the tropical low has not yet developed a well defined circulation, and as such, advisories have yet to begin.

The incipient tropical cyclone is now roughly 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands, and with most indications of a turn to the northwest, and then north, should probably stay out at sea.


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