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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #99623 - Thu Sep 13 2018 07:57 PM

Wrightsville Buoy

44 mph N (10°), Gusting: to 132 mph at 7:08 pm

UPDATE: Looks like 7:08 pm might be the last reading from several weather stations.

Edited by Prospero (Thu Sep 13 2018 08:06 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #99624 - Thu Sep 13 2018 08:44 PM

This gust is so much higher than the sustained wind I was left wondering if perhaps one buoy got hit by a tornado, but could not discern any vortex on radar over Station 41038 at that time. So, I began looking to see if any other buoys were showing impressive gusts, for verification. Sure enough. It looks like there may be gusts well into the 100s in some of these bands now moving close to shore.

*Worth noting that both of these buoys appear to be reporting sustained winds averaged over an eight-minute period. In the Atlantic, hurricane wind speed is measured over a two-minute average. In addition, these anemometers are only 3 meters above sea level. The standard reporting elevation is over three times that (ten meters).

EDIT:
** These buoys are being QCd for accuracy. 41064 in particular looks to have had a malfunction of some type. It is possible that these peak gusts will be revised. It is also possible that they were related to a waterspout. TBD.



Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 14 2018 02:58 PM)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 304
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99625 - Thu Sep 13 2018 11:01 PM

Reports of massive storm surge are starting to come in, especially in New Bern, NC. Hurricane Track has a live cam in Oriental NC that is showing water up to the level of a speed limit sign.

11PM update is out, winds down to 90 MPH (Cat 1) with a 10 foot surge on the Neuse River Morehead City, NC.

Edited by JMII (Thu Sep 13 2018 11:07 PM)


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Florence Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #99628 - Fri Sep 14 2018 06:22 AM

Some of the Weather Channel's best live hurricane coverage right now in the eye wall of Florence in Wilmington, NC with Stephanie Abrams and Jim Cantore.

https://weather.com/tv/the-weather-channel-live/video/watch-the-weather-channel-live



Edited by Prospero (Fri Sep 14 2018 06:34 AM)


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #99629 - Fri Sep 14 2018 06:37 AM

110 mph gust at Onslow Bay Outer Buoy just a few minutes ago at 6:08 am.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 304
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #99632 - Fri Sep 14 2018 08:20 AM

Its just crawling along the coast, moving SW from landfall in Wrightsville Beach towards Southport. Due to the shape of the coast and direction of travel it might go back over the ocean before making a second landfall near Myrtle Beach.

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99635 - Fri Sep 14 2018 03:51 PM




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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 304
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99636 - Fri Sep 14 2018 04:00 PM

Great chart above! At landfall the NHC reported 90 MPH winds which aligns with Wrightsville Beach reporting 87.

In the 9 hours since landfall Flo has moved all of 37 miles... that's like a brisk walking pace (4 mph).


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99639 - Fri Sep 14 2018 05:55 PM

Wonder why they didn't list Wrightsville Buoy with a recorded 132 mph gust at 7:08 pm last night.

I have noticed you have to zoom into the wind map a bit for it to appear on SailFlow, but NOAA should do that or have access to the stats.


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Florence Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #99640 - Fri Sep 14 2018 06:02 PM

Quote:

In the 9 hours since landfall Flo has moved all of 37 miles... that's like a brisk walking pace (4 mph).




Irma passed by Pinellas County last year with gusts in the 80s at the most for only a few hours. Power was out for weeks in many locations, trees were down everywhere. What a mess! 24 hours of that same wind would have been even more devastating to us! Flo has been hammering the mid-NC coast for at least 24 hours now. How long will power be out up there?


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 304
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #99642 - Fri Sep 14 2018 07:42 PM

Quote:

24 hours of that same wind would have been even more devastating to us!




True that constant pounding plus saturated ground is going to uproot many, many trees and NC has some big trees. However on the flip side since Flo has basically stayed in the same spot I think that wind related damage will be concentrated to just that regional area.

Contrast this with Wilma and Irma - both of which were also large storms but moved quickly and thus effected a much larger area, about 1/2 of Florida due to their path across the state. I'm thinking as far as areas effected Flo will more like Andrew with wind damage limited to only a small pocket. Flooding and surge covers a much bigger zone this time. And of course the level of damage will be MUCH lower since we are talking Cat 2 winds vs Cat 5.

For those of us in Broward Irma was actually a long duration event - we got NE winds while she was in the Keys, then E winds while she was in Naples, then finally SW winds as she moved towards Ocala. At my location I would estimate that we had TS winds for nearly 36 hours. This resulted in nearly no damage because the wind wasn't strong enough to complete uproot trees, it just snapped off smaller branches. During Wilma many trees (of all sizes) came down. She was moving very quickly but had massive core with 80 to 110 mph eye wall winds.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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