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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Leslie Lounge
      #99662 - Fri Sep 21 2018 02:37 PM

Below: GFS Surface (10m wind and MSLP) analysis Sep 20 0z


Florence is no longer, having transitioned into an elongated trough of low pressure, and ultimately merging with a mid-latitude system and becoming part of the reason for frontogenesis while exiting the east coast. This merged system, with scant Florence DNA left in it, is now well offshore of the east coast and has a couple of lows developing within it.

For several days, several models have had runs pinching off the southern extent/s of this system, with one or two synoptic-scale lows taking off on their own with subtropical or even tropical development. The first of these went on to become Invest 98L, which may have briefly become a tropical storm while out near Bermuda, and which is now being watched itself for the possibility of regeneration closer to the east coast next week.

The NHC has been ramping up their odds for the northern branch of this area to develop into a subtropical or tropical storm, and as of the 2PM TWO Sep 21 5-Day Outlook, this region is now given 70% odds.

Model support for tropical cyclogenesis and subsequent intensification of this still-to-be-formed cyclone has been strong, with several suggesting that this storm may become the second Major of 2018. Fortunately, fingers crossed, most runs also keep it well out to sea. Caveat being, we saw the same with Florence, up until steering patterns unexpectedly changed, and thus obviously no tropical cyclone should ever be written off.

This system has not yet developed and does not yet have an Invest tag, but will likely pick one up over the weekend, probably 90L, and the title will be updated as warranted. Edit: As of 9/22/1800z this system is now tagged Invest 90L and the title has been updated. As of 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 advisories have begun on Subtropical Storm Leslie - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 23 2018 01:01 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: C Atl Sub/Trop Development [Re: cieldumort]
      #99667 - Sat Sep 22 2018 05:56 PM



This hybridizing area of low pressure has been Invest tagged, 90L. At 1800z this Low was centered near 32N 44.5 with maximum sustained winds estimated about 30 KTS and minimum pressure of 1003 MB. NHC has a high (70%) expectation that 90L will become a subtropical or tropical cyclone.

There is an unusually large model spread on the future track of this system, which is concerning in two ways. For one, the loopy hanging around will give it time to develop with less cold water upwelling = potentially stronger, longer-lasting system; and two, if it hangs around long enough without zipping away there may be a window to track further west or southwest than models can pick up on yet.


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CFLBob
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Re: Leslie Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99814 - Thu Oct 11 2018 08:19 AM

How long has Leslie been named? Is it three weeks? I recall watching the models looking like balls of yarn and it mostly spun in place east of Bermuda for a week. How long is the record for survival of a named tropical system?

Now it looks like it's going to "ricochet" off the islands and head back east. Will we be preparing for it on Halloween?

--------------------
Retired engineer who still has more hobbies and interests than time.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Leslie Lounge [Re: CFLBob]
      #99822 - Sat Oct 13 2018 03:23 AM



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Leslie Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99824 - Sat Oct 13 2018 01:33 PM

Leslie's final destination: Portugal



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Leslie Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99828 - Sun Oct 14 2018 04:24 PM

Some interesting notes to the Legacy of Leslie -

Leslie was undergoing transition back to a non-tropical state ("Post Tropical") at time of landfall on Portugal, but there is some disagreement among hurricane specialists as to whether or not "Leslie" retained enough of her inner core structure intact and detached from frontal boundaries to have another six hours or so added to her time as a Tropical Cylone.

According to hurricane historian Brenden Moses, Leslie completely "dissipated within a frontal boundary over the Bay of Biscay earlier today (Oct 14) marking the end of its 22.25 day existence as a cyclone." (This counts days as a non-tropical or sub-tropical cyclone, as well a TC), and "19.5 days as a subtropical or tropical cyclone, the tenth longest on record in the Atlantic basin."

Into landfall, Leslie, in whatever classification she was, rocked Portugal with wind gusts of up to 109 MPH, snapping or uprooting at least 1,000 trees and knocking out power to at least 300,000. With the hardest hit areas including the capital, Lisbon; the districts of Coimbra and Leiria; and also Aveiro, Viseu and Porto in the north, there is talk of Portugal asking the World Meteorological Agency for name retirement.


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