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#Chantal continues eastbound in the Atlantic. Now closely watching a new area of Interest near the Bahamas with 20% odds
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 40 (Barry) , Major: 316 (Michael) Florida - Any: 316 (Michael) Major: 316 (Michael)
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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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General Model Watching
      #99900 - Wed Jun 05 2019 07:04 PM

This thread is for general "model storms" that may or may not form, if something moves into the more likely category than it's own topic will be made.


that said, the GFS had an idea of something in the Gulf for late next week, that went away, and is now back to predicting something in the Gulf next week. (Both 12Z and 18Z today show it) No other models have really picked up on it yet, so it'll remain in this topic... for now.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99901 - Tue Jul 02 2019 09:09 PM

The GFS and Euro are picking up on the possibility of something forming off the Southeast or Mid Atlantic coast mid July. We'll be watching to see if the trend continues here. Barbara in the East Pacific is cat 4 right now, but likely to weaken once it gets further west.

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Keith B
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99902 - Thu Jul 04 2019 05:48 PM

I believe I am posting this correctly. It has been a while since I have posted.

I have noticed some Twitter info in regards to the possible GOM item for next week.
----

Tropical Tidbits from Twitter. Computer model.
" target="_blank">Tropical Tidbits

Greg Postel
@GregPostel
Global models are sniffing at a front sliding into (or near) the northern Gulf of Mexico later next week. Risk of tropical development from this early view is small, and the spread in possible weather outcomes is wide, but worth watching nonetheless
#flwx


NWS Melbourne discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2019
MODIFIED PREV DISC...

SAT-WED...SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SLIDING SOUTH OF ECFL BY EARLY
SUN. AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF WIND FLOW FOR SAT, THEN BECOMING MORE
SSW/SW BY SUN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL RAIN COVERAGE. RECENT GUID FROM GFS INDICATES BROAD LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WHICH COULD FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TOWARD A SETUP FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES. POPS
INCREASING AREAWIDE TO AVERAGE 50-60PCT DURING THE PERIOD AND
WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SEVERAL PERIODS. THE STEERING FLOW
FOR CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN PENINSULA LATE IN THE DAY
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE WITH MIN VALUES NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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MichaelA
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: Keith B]
      #99903 - Sat Jul 06 2019 12:56 PM

The ECMWF is trying to show some development in the Eastern GOM later this week.

from Tropical Tidbits

--------------------
Michael
2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 3/1/0


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Keith B
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: MichaelA]
      #99904 - Sat Jul 06 2019 02:28 PM

NHC posted this on Twitter.

NHC 5 day outlook.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: General Model Watching [Re: Keith B]
      #99905 - Sun Jul 07 2019 07:10 AM

NWS Melbourne early Sunday morning (7/7) discussion:

Extended...A piece of energy will break off the southern flank of a
northern stream short wave trough departing the eastern CONUS, then
drop southward across Florida Mon-Tue. Beyond Tue, model guidance
diverge W/R/T the extent of westward retrogression/intensification
of this system, with the op-ECM continuing to be significantly more
aggressive toward that end, developing a fairly strong tropical
cyclone which eventually lifts north into the central Gulf Coast
by the end of the week. Both the op-GFS and CMC are weaker, farther
east and a little faster to lift a low across the NE GOMEX.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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doug
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99906 - Sun Jul 07 2019 09:43 AM

40% Over next 5 days

--------------------
doug


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Prospero
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: doug]
      #99907 - Sun Jul 07 2019 04:07 PM

Wondering if we'll see any updates on the FLhurricane Main Page. Hope so.

NOAA has it up to 50% chance on 5 days. BayNews9 (Josh Linker) says no "no big deal" at this time. Funny, "No big deal" is a phrase we associate with Brian McClure at BayNews9!


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Keith B
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: Prospero]
      #99908 - Sun Jul 07 2019 07:29 PM

Now up to 60% at the 1930 update. Something going to be brewing.

NHC 5 day outlook

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: Keith B]
      #99910 - Sun Jul 07 2019 09:26 PM

Yes the Frontal Boundary system, the models are split the new (FV3) GFS and Euro show it moving south then west into Louisiana. Not too terribly strong at landfall, but strengthening as it does, which is concerning. The older style GFS/Gem/CMC keep it weaker and move it ENE across Florida into the Atlantic, never really developing it. (Although the CMC does kick it into gear off the Carolinas)

This one will be a good test of the models here. The situation hasn't happened in quite some time, I think 1975 or 1986 was the last time something remotely similar was seen in July that actually developed.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99912 - Mon Jul 08 2019 04:34 AM

Overnight model runs generally shifted west.


The 0z Euro now forms something in the Gulf late Thursday, and then moves potentially a category 1/2 hurricane into Texas just north of Houston Saturday night.
The GFS moves a much weaker rain system into Corpus Christi Saturday night.
The older legacy GFS model has switched from the east route and also moves the rain into Texas near Corpus.
The Canadian has shifted further west, but brings the storm back onto the Panhandle after forming in the Gulf.
The UKMet and German ICON model move it into the Eastern Louisiana, although the ICON is much stronger (cat 2) than the UK (Tropical Storm)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99913 - Mon Jul 08 2019 09:36 AM

Ok The Georgia system is now 92L, creating a new topic for it.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99970 - Sun Jul 14 2019 08:17 PM

18Z GFS shows a another potential Gulf System in 10-11 days or so affecting Florida. Will continue to monitor.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99971 - Mon Jul 15 2019 10:28 PM

This has gone away, next chance for anything is probably during the first week of August.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99972 - Sat Jul 20 2019 01:42 PM

Not a lot of model support, but there is an area east of the Bahamas, mostly a surface trough, that is something to watch because of where it is, but likely nothing will happen with it. If anything did it would be Monday or Tuesday.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #100009 - Mon Aug 12 2019 08:25 PM

Nothing for this week it seems, but finally some hints for the week after next. The area southwest of the Cabo Verde (Cape Verde) islands may need to be watched later next week. 18Z GFS shows it eventually winding up in Central Texas (Aug 28th) as a major hurricane. But that's after not showing much of anything on prior runs. Either way it looks like this season won't see activity until at least another week or two.

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Robert
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Abstract volcano [Re: MikeC]
      #100011 - Tue Aug 13 2019 12:19 PM

In addition to hurricanes i watch some volcanoes and earthquakes, and we have had massive volcanic activity in the tropics of indonesia the last 12 months, Krakatu going off to 50,000 feet every month for a day, eventually blasting the island apart in decdmber, then Iluwan volcano just went off twice to 65,000 feet all day twice EVIi 4 sub plineal,june then july .plus many more in japan, elutian islands to 50k. lots of wild fires in the artic, and huge Co2 concentration in the upper atmosphere...

I believe the reduction of hurricanes 2012 to 2014 may have been tied to the Icelandic eruption and cooling upper atmosphere, followed by el nino, lead to the seasons of 2016,17,18..due to untapped deep warm water over the north atlantic, couple 17 with the eclipse just prior to Irma, jose, and maria, the dense cool line created by the passage of eclipse at high noon created a stronger then usual upper level ridge of high pressure, along a line those storms rode off. Think like a boat wake left by the eclipse.
Here is an interesting read its a new study.. https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2019/04/01/volcanic-eruptions-hurricanes/ ... i think the iceland volcano has a huge force on the atlantic cycle as is many other I'm sure. The suppression of storms compiles warm water to tipping point and the the bad atmosphere aerosols break way to good conditions and explosive seasons a few years after the fact, this during a warm north atlantic multi decadal signal, it could be cold always is the norm with suppressive events leading to ever warming untapped water followed by some release of heat, then eruption cool, suppress, and warm again. Coupled with el nino... just something to think about this season...

Edited by Robert (Tue Aug 13 2019 12:24 PM)


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craigm
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Re: General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #100012 - Wed Aug 14 2019 08:07 AM

Quote:

Nothing for this week it seems, but finally some hints for the week after next. The area southwest of the Cabo Verde (Cape Verde) islands may need to be watched later next week. 18Z GFS shows it eventually winding up in Central Texas (Aug 28th) as a major hurricane. But that's after not showing much of anything on prior runs. Either way it looks like this season won't see activity until at least another week or two.




That time frame would coincide with the MJO phase in the Atlantic towards the end of the Month and through September. Green indicates increased activity



--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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