Cristobal Lounge - FLHurricane.com

As of 8AM ET Monday, has increased their forecast odds of 93L developing to 80% within just 48 hours.

The area of low pressure associated with the remnants of former EPac Amanda has continued to become better defined while even still over land, with good moisture convergence overnight, moist inflow from multiple sources (Eastern Pacific, Caribbean, Gulf), and healthy outflow in the upper levels.

Conflicting with 93L's ability to become a tropical cyclone today is its mean location over land, with competing surface circulations noted over water to its west and southwest (one in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, and another over the extreme northern East Pac). These auxiliary circulations are part of the parent CAG (Central American Gyre) from which 93L/x-Amanda was born. By tomorrow they may overtake and become the dominant feature for 93L to develop with (in the case of the Bay of Campeche swirl), dissolve, merge, or, at least in the case of the east Pac swirl, possibly start to develop on its own back in that basin.

0z model runs this morning are unanimously calling for genesis in the Gulf this week, and if it wasn't for 93L being stuck over land at the moment, odds would likely already be close to 100%.

Here's a quick rundown of some of the major models' 01/0z runs:

GLOBALS:

EURO - Cooks up Cristobal by early tomorrow in the southern Bay of Campeche, much quicker and a great deal more compact and coherent than the sloppy system the advertises (See below). This model then cyclonically loops the compact tropical storm just onshore of Mexico along the extreme southwestern Bay of Campeche on Friday, and back around into the Gulf to redevelop it as a larger, more sprawly system Saturday, ultimately making landfall near Corpus Christi, TX next Tuesday as a low-end Tropical Storm.

GFS - Slowly develops what becomes a sprawling, low-end tropical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico by the coming weekend, and which then makes landfall along the TX/LA border sometime around next Monday night, with the weather heavily weighted to the eastern side.

ICON - Bullishly constructs a TD later today from the swirl already present over the extreme Bay of Campeche, organizing it further throughout the week as it becomes a high-end Trop Storm/possible Hurricane Cristobal by Friday in the central Gulf, raking Louisiana all weekend and making landfall near the TX/LA border Sunday morning.

UKMET - Cooks up Cristobal later today from the swirl already present over the extreme Bay of Campeche and nearly stalls all week in the southern Bay of Campeche. By this weekend UK has Cristobal moving again, finally as a Cat 1 or so approaching the northeast Gulf of Mexico coastlines by Sunday.

01/0z STORM-CENTERED MODELS:

HWRF - Only briefly develops 93L into a TD on either or both sides of the Yucatan, but does develop a hurricane in the extreme northern East Pac just south of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

HMON - Seems to cook up a TD by sometime Tuesday in the Bay of Campeche, nearly losing it after a cyclonic loop into land, but redeveloping it by the weekend as it emerges back out over the Gulf.

It is worth noting that several of the EURO ensemble members ramp up 93L into a powerful hurricane in the northwest or northern Gulf.

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