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Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Marco Forecast Lounge
      #101166 - Tue Aug 18 2020 04:01 PM


Visible image of 97L at 1530z on Aug 18, 2020

Invest 97L is presently traveling through the as usual less-than-hospitable eastern Caribbean, but will soon be entering a more favorable region in the central to western Caribbean, and will likely have a much better chance for development in a few days, and interests from Nicaragua to the Yucatan, or even around Cuba, may be under the gun for an intensifying tropical cyclone at that time.

Later this week, models strongly suggest that locations within and along the Gulf of Mexico may be impacted, but all of this is predicated on the system not washing out and heading more west or even southwest.

At this time, the GFS develops 97L, but the ECMWF keeps it very weak.

Edited by MikeC (Fri Aug 21 2020 10:32 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101168 - Tue Aug 18 2020 04:07 PM

97 sure is going to be in a position to develop in a couple of days. Almost perfect conditions.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 991
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #101173 - Wed Aug 19 2020 10:04 AM

It appears this one will develop first..Models still aren't
sure of much after 48 hrs.

--------------------
doug


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #101175 - Wed Aug 19 2020 10:54 AM

I believe I see rotation in 97, anyone else?

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #101177 - Wed Aug 19 2020 03:32 PM

There are two cyclonically curved waves associated with 97L, one offshore, and the other inland. At the present, they may be doing more to disrupt each others potential to close off than help, but the wave to what we are tracking as 97L's south does appear to be helping pump up moisture from South America, such that the Invest had not been inhaling the usual downslope dry air off that continent's mountainous regions and while in the eastern Caribbean.

Once 97L either consumes enough of the vorticity to its south or clears itself of it, the Invest should be able to close off, and tropical cyclogenesis will likely occur.


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 252
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101188 - Thu Aug 20 2020 10:32 AM

Special Message from NHC Issued 20 Aug 2020 14:17 UTC

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located in the Caribbean Sea, at 11 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

--------------------
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101192 - Thu Aug 20 2020 08:57 PM

14 appears to be much more organized than 13 this evening. I’m thinking that 14 will be named before 13 gets wound up.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD 14 Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101203 - Fri Aug 21 2020 09:43 AM

Recon is finding that FOURTEEN, like THIRTEEN earlier, may be undergoing a center jump this morning. This time, the center of TD14 appears to be reforming to the northeast of the 8AM Advisory.

The combination of TD13 (now Tropical Storm Laura) re-forming further south, and the apparent re-centering of FOUTEEN further northeast, highlights the potential for a binary interaction at some point (Fujiwara effect).

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101205 - Fri Aug 21 2020 11:17 AM

Quote:

14 appears to be much more organized than 13 this evening. I’m thinking that 14 will be named before 13 gets wound up.



Even though 13 beat out 14 and became Laura this morning, if I was a betting man I'd put money on 14 (soon to be Marco) eventually being the strongest TC due to less interaction with land and a slower forward speed allowing more time over exceptionally warm SST's in the central Gulf once clear of the Yucatan peninsula.

Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Aug 21 2020 11:20 AM)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101218 - Sat Aug 22 2020 07:12 AM

Marco's overnight jog to the NNW places both the center and the deepest convection associated with the TC in a good position to "thread the needle" between the NE tip of the Yucatan peninsula and western tip of Cuba. SW/W shear awaiting Marco in the Gulf is forecast to limit intensification as Marco approaches the Texas coast. We shall see...

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101219 - Sat Aug 22 2020 07:54 AM

Well, 13, now Laura, experienced a burst of convection while 14, now Marco, saw a decline in convection. Both systems are not well defined this morning. This morning’s guidance indicates that Marco will precede Laura in the GOM by about 24 hours.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101236 - Sat Aug 22 2020 12:26 PM

GFS had a wild Shift, bringing a hurricane to Louisiana from Marco, then from Laura the next day.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101244 - Sat Aug 22 2020 03:33 PM

It appears to me that the Floater GEO Color loop is showing Marco tracking nearly due North. I'm thinking that interests in the Eastern GOM should keep an eye on Marco.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 368
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101246 - Sat Aug 22 2020 04:40 PM

What are the chances it gets pulled in by the trough that is also pulling all of the moisture up into Florida??

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2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #101247 - Sat Aug 22 2020 05:09 PM

The 4 PM CDT advisory package has shifted the track significantly eastward, but maintains the northwesterly turn as the Atlantic ridge is expected to build westward. It remains to be seen just when that turn occurs. Marco, being a small storm, may be somewhat less predictable than a larger storm would be.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #101255 - Sun Aug 23 2020 01:04 PM

Marco has developed a pretty decent CDO recently and has been upgraded to hurricane with 75 MPH max wind. Track guidance is looking solid for landfall on the Louisiana coast tomorrow. The likely possibility of a strong Hurricane Laura striking the same area on Thursday, this will be quite the disaster.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


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