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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
Joe Bastardi's take
      #47038 - Tue Aug 09 2005 03:10 PM

If you took the time to watch the video, it was interesting and informative. Why give opinions on his style?....I suppose a more boring assessment is good for people...I for one....enjoy him. different....not the normal "syndicated and stiff necked" forecaster, fo sho. If he didn't know what he was talking about...he wouldn't be there. He even explains his rationale, and basis....never trys to make it more than it is...

As to his report today....he was mentioning that if Irene can bust through the trough...it will be pushed more westward because of the high pressure ridge...and enter a perfect environment for strengthening...based on conditions the models don't pick up on...

Irene could do the "andrew".....he mentioned several strong storms in the past that had this very set-up...and alluded to the "possibilities" of the same thing here...a possible explosion as Andrew did...into a tight widow-maker....

one would have to "listen" to the forecast, before one could give an intelligent and insightful comment on it...

but to comment on his style, or suggest he is going through a mid-life crisis...is to my way of thinking....scary.

I can't stand the picking on the forum. Let people give their opinions and observations....if those opinions and observations are stupid...time will be the proof of that...

my take...

an Andrew type storm into central Florida...maybe even Miami...is possible....

we will see.


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Joe Bastardi's take [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #47039 - Tue Aug 09 2005 03:21 PM

It makes perfect sense what you are saying and to say JB is having a mid-life crisis is a little harsh - BUT - his style....well, people have different tastes in styles. I like the guy and i think he is funny as hell at times, but i also think he can be a little extreme and i think thats part of his "show". He was out last week a few days and another guy did his segment - he was boring and short, but he did make his point, which is all i care about.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Joe Bastardi's take [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #47040 - Tue Aug 09 2005 03:27 PM

Quote:



my take...

an Andrew type storm into central Florida...maybe even Miami...is possible....

we will see.





Yes, you may be right about Central Fla and Miami, but JB also pointed out a few past storms that went into the Carolina's....

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Joe Bastardi's take [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #47041 - Tue Aug 09 2005 03:36 PM

I'm sorry, but calling for an Andrew-type impact at this point is just irresponsible. That storm was the single most devestating storm of our time and affected hundreds of thousands of lives. It is not a storm to draw idle comparison to, period.

Irene is much further north of Andrew at 55 W -- by 5 or 6 degrees in latitude -- and the underlying conditions between this year and 1992 are entirely different. This storm could do anything, but unless you are able to back it up with hard meteorological knowledge, it's merely wishcasting at this point in time. Climatology also has just as many -- or more -- storms that didn't turn into these "tight widowmakers" -- and the atmospheric regime does not suggest anything to allow for this storm to do anything like what Andrew did.

If the threat for such a storm is there, we will know it well ahead of time. The threat is there for this storm to become a decent hurricane and potentially impact land. The chance for the latter right now is still less than 50/50 and still, no matter what occurs, a week away at the earliest. We'll watch it, but it's simply irrepsonsible meteorology to be hyping this up like that -- especially given no guidance and no observations whatsoever that suggest such a scenario is possible.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Joe Bastardi's take [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #47042 - Tue Aug 09 2005 03:40 PM

The thing I like about JB, and that I find sort of refreshing, is that he's not afraid to call it like he sees it. He might be wrong (we all could be), but he'll go out on a limb and does his best to provide the data (sometimes too much) to back it up. Even as of this morning at 5am, one of our local "forecasters" basically said in about six seconds that Irene is set to recurve and won't pose a threat to land and that was that. All I've read from the people on here and JB is that this storm is unpredictable and bears watching (not panic, not wishcasting, not overblown projections - just watching).

I agree 100% that the NHC is the official source and I'm going to rely on them, but I hate when our local weather guys just state something as if it was fact. I'd hate to be them and have to turn around over the weekend and say, "Oops, guess where it's going now".


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
Re: Joe Bastardi's take [Re: Clark]
      #47043 - Tue Aug 09 2005 03:44 PM

more whining...no one made a "call" for an Andrew type storm....not me...nor did Joe...it is possible....period...who is wishcasting....??????

and to suggest that you or anyone else knows the meteorological differences that need to be in place for a cat 3 vs a 5...is in itself irresponsible...because NO ONE knows that...

Bastardi said a powerful cat 3 hurricane is possible.......or did you not understand what he said....does that make Joe Bastardi irresponsible?.....

give us a break


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Joe Bastardi's take [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #47065 - Tue Aug 09 2005 04:28 PM

Joe Bastardi was giving us a worst case scenario, as I guess you were. I think Clark was just trying to instill you with some appreciation for Andrew, as you used the storms name kind of lightly. Remember, Andrew isn't so much a storm as he is a legend of sorts. Now, I know that may sound silly, but I am kind of a hurricane history buff, and an Andrew "survivor", so I can relate to what I think he was talking about.

Edited by Lysis (Tue Aug 09 2005 04:37 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4240
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Joe Bastardi's take [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #47131 - Tue Aug 09 2005 07:10 PM

Here's a map of Andrew and Irene for the comparison, if ya'll want.]

Andrew and Irene Plotted

That's not going to happen.


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Joe Bastardi's take [Re: MikeC]
      #47141 - Tue Aug 09 2005 07:30 PM

Quote:

Here's a map of Andrew and Irene for the comparison, if ya'll want.]

Andrew and Irene Plotted

That's not going to happen.





Agreed, i mean its porssible like anything else, but models have it more northward, and i mean its just not favorable

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 818
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: Joe Bastardi's take [Re: Ryan]
      #47180 - Tue Aug 09 2005 09:49 PM

It was one of the best Joe B. videos I've seen,he makes a good case.And remember this guy gets paid for this,and works for Accuweather.Everyone along the east coast needs to watch this one.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Joe Bastardi's take [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #47181 - Tue Aug 09 2005 09:57 PM

I ask you guy's this respectfully.....Please, could someone tell me why so much stock is put in what Joe Bastardi says when hes wrong easily more than 50% of the time?I just don't get it...I'l take accuracy over flair anyday.

Edited by richisurfs (Tue Aug 09 2005 09:58 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Joe Bastardi's take [Re: richisurfs]
      #47231 - Wed Aug 10 2005 01:10 AM

To be fair, JB does get some right. My biggest problem today was with the storms pulled out, fair or unfair. Making a comparison to Andrew is no child's play. It is one thing to say the potential is there for a major hurricane; it is another to say that we'll see another Andrew-like storm. JB himself is big on climatology, as I've seen in his season writeups, and he would know better than most that a storm like Andrew is very rare climatologically.

There have been so many other storms like Irene that amounted to nothing that picking one out for analysis isn't prudent, IMO. The storm could do anything from dissipate to rapidly intensify, as can all storms; the conditions now and forecast, however, suggest that modest intensification is possible with no agreement on a track out beyond 3-5 days. It is in the choice to make a call at this point to predict where it might go beyond that or not; given the track errors that far out and the spread of the model guidance, I choose not to. Others may not share that choice and I respect their decision to do so, but it is one I don't agree with.

That said, I think it's time we get back to the meteorology.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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