Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2088
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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While we are waiting during this quite period, I thought that it might be fun to get your thoughts on two items:
1. On what date will Debby become a 'named' tropical storm?
2. Having seen how the season has evolved so far this year, what do you now think the final season tally will be for named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes?
No rationale is required for your 'guesses', although you can state them if you wish. Lets run the 'contest' until 21Z on Sunday the 20th. I'll post my own thoughts at that time when we close the contest at 5pm EDT on Sunday..
Just reply in this thread with your answers, and please, only those that are willing to stick their neck out should respond. Give it your best shot!
Cheers,
ED
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Debby will be named on August 22nd and I'll stick to 14/6/4 for the season total.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 93
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.94W
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Based on the last few runs, climo and an exhaustive discussion with my weather advisor, the eminent Dr. Clamso Linguine, professor emeritus of meteorology at Bologna University, I'll go with 23 August as the date Debby is named. Season totals guess (and it's a guess at best) 15/8/4.
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VMI Bran
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Since the 25th is a Friday, and these things always happen on Fridays, I'll go with that. Totals, completely SWAG-ged, at 12/5/2
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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I went with 15/9/5 back in May, and I'm going to take liberty to lop 2 numbers off of each. I'd look even worse had I gone forward with my plans to bump my numbers to 17...glad I didn't. It's not the seasonal stuff I'm all that great with, anyway.
As for Debby...soon, depending on what that CV wave the is so bullish with does. Coop's Aug. 22nd looks good, give or take a day or so.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Test Post...
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 274
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
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I`ll go with 12/6/3..........As for Debbie.....August 24th ??????
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
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Oh, how I love a good guessing game!
Firstly, I am going to trim my numbers to 12/5/3. No logical reasoning behind this, just good ole' gut instinct. As for Debbie/Debby I'll go with August 28th....because I have to be out of town that day and stuff always seems to happen when I'm away from home.
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weatherwatcher999
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Southwestern Ontario, Canada.
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Wow, it seems like the Atlantic is dead compared to last year.
I'll go with August 24th for Debby.
And 11/5/3. 
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2088
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Hmmm - not too many entries yet, so I'll offer some motivation of historical interest. The winner of the final season tally for named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes in this thread will receive a color copy of an original WSR88D (NEXRAD) printout of long range base reflectivity from the Melbourne radar taken on August 24, 1992, at 1427Z (the framed original is on the wall in my den).
Remember, you've only got about 46 hours left to post your forecasts/guesses. Good Luck!
Cheers,
ED
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1020
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Yeah.. Well, this little question has compelled me to rethink my thinking on the season totals to come, once again.
To qualify my vote - these numbers are also going to reflect systems which I believe are deserving, and have the best chances to get, post-season reanalysis inclusion - so, it's possible that I am going to be *way* high until the final tally is done ... and perhaps then I'll just be high, and not be coming from the furthest reaches of our solar system 
I was even a little bit north of these just prior to watching the past few weeks worth of possibles wither and die on the vine, having taken the fast track to destruction by making one too many an appearance on the SunnyDry & WindyShear Show, long after it was realized among tropical wanna-be's that doing so amounted to blowing the flame out on any future aspirations.
15/7/3
*** Oh yeah *** As for Debby's B-day, I'll push my vote out on that up to the limit when I can get a better handle on the coming few days.
Edit on 8/20 at 3AM - for best guessing the naming of Debby on 8/23
Edited by cieldumort (Sun Aug 20 2006 03:56 AM)
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John C
Unregistered
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8/30/06
9/6/2
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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what the heck
12/5/3
and debby august 26
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 134
Loc: West Central Florida
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Okay,
I am going with...
10/7/2
Debby.. August 29th
Christine
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 113
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
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Ok let me get in on this
10/7/4
Debby on the 22nd. Based on the runs
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BillD
Weather Analyst
Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
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9/6/06 for Debby
9/3/1
Bill
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ElizabethH
Meteorologist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
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Debby: 8/27/06
Season: 12/7/4
*I know I'm 15 minutes late... It doesn't have to count..but why not?? 
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2088
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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No your not late since I haven't posted until now. Based mostly on statistical analysis with some and wind shear patterns thrown in, I'm going with 9/13/06 for Debby and 10/4/1 for the season (my guess doesn't count for the season totals).
Thanks to all who participated.
Cheers,
ED
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2088
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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"Having seen how the season has evolved so far this year, what do you now think the final season tally will be for named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes?"
The final total was 9/5/2 and John C's guess was 9/6/2 so he's the winner!
Cheers,
ED
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Congrats John C.! As for 2007 I"ll go with 11/4/2 at this time
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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9/6/2 it is I guess.. Still think they should name the unamed storm we had rolling far off the coast before Beryl came into the picture. For 2007.. I may be crazy about this but 18/9/7 ... Reason why?? I believe the El Nino will be gone and there may be more favorable conditions for development. May start late and thats why i'm saying 18 instead of 28 lol. The 2007 season doesn't look like it will be another dead one in my eyes. Sorry guys.. it's just my opinion, but if this bothers anyone.. let me know.. it's just a prediction.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
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Any forecast for next year at this point is little more than a guess--but I`m going to say, just a little over Storm Cooper`s #`s---I`ll go with 14/5/2 for `07.
WW-911
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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The winner is wrong.. The has finally declared that the unnamed storm before Beryl in July happened to have 50 mph. sustained winds and a pressure of 998 MLB. This now proves that our tenth storm is declared today! go to the National Hurricane Center page and it will be the first headline. So the count is now 10/6/2!
I knew they wouldn't leave that storm behind.
2006 - 10/6/2
NHC review identifies a 10th Atlantic tropical storm in 2006 Bill Proenza to Succeed
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
* This proves now that we have had an average Hurricane Season! *
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Mon Dec 18 2006 01:37 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2088
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Actually, you have made a few mistakes - according to the Archive, the adjusted seasons total for 2006 was 10/5/2, not 10/6/2, so the winners list is not incorrect, its just incomplete.. Four individuals were off by a total count of 2 - so we have a tie, and the winners are:
VMI Bran
weatherwatcher999
John C
sara33
Congrats to all of them - I'll now need to make 4 copies of that NEXRAD image!
Cheers,
ED
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John C
Unregistered
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Thank You, and yes it was a gut feeling guess!
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