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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic
      #41430 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:41 AM

A tropical wave near 10N 38.5W at 10/06Z has started to gather convection tonight as it moves westward at 12 knots. The wave is moving into a large area of light shear and slow development is possible over the next couple of days.
ED


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #41466 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:07 AM

98L has got a nice little mass of convection this morning. the easterly shear that was affecting the system yesterday seems to have slackened. today or tomorrow... it'll get classified. probably today. ssd isn't tracking it yet, but that should change before long. ironic that emily in 1999 was coming in at a low latitude and very compact... this one might start very close to where it's ancestor from the last cycle of the name list did.
HF 1307z10july


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41582 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:11 AM

Your idea of a storm like Emily forming plus JB's idea of 2 tropical systems forming next week, and the model support lead me to believe we could have a similar scenario with Emily and Cindy in 1999. Fortunately those two systems were fish spinners, and one was absorbed by the other. MJO activity needs to be monitored over the next 1-2 weeks as there is some anomalous convection, and the effects are very pronounced over south India and china; as this could affect the future of these waves. Shear and SSTS are also very favorable in the central Atlantic, so I would definitely watch this wave, and the next one that comes off Africa. I know we have Dennis, but that's me.

BTW, best of luck for those who choose to stay in the path of Dennis, and god's speed.

Over and out.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: Keith234]
      #41616 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:33 PM

not looking for fish spinners here. the front one is developing faster, so there won't be a huge hurricane killing the easterlies behind a shallow tropical storm. 98L is significantly far to the south that it should get the islands.. my reckoning is that it will go through the northeastern caribbean as potentially a hurricane around thursday july 14th. after that it looks like the trough off the east coast will have lifted out and a flat ridge will send it hurtling west.
away to the east that other wave has better model support, but it's profile is unclear. theres a weak SFC low around 25w... but it isn't much of a standout with all of the ITCZ convection nearby. that may be the seedling that gets a disturbance going, but i think it more likely that it evolves very slowly and shouldn't start looking intimidating until wed or so.
HF 1733z10july


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41648 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:24 PM

wow... you guys are just moving right along here.

Is there a possibility that these two systems close proximity to each other, or even the recent passage of Dennis through those waters, will hinder development?

--------------------
cheers


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
98L T-numbers [Re: Lysis]
      #41688 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:45 PM

T-numbers out for 98L

Code:
 
10/1745 UTC 10.7N 41.9W T1.5/1.5 98
10/1145 UTC 10.7N 40.9W TOO WEAK 98



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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
98L now special feature in the Discussion [Re: Jamiewx]
      #41701 - Sun Jul 10 2005 03:05 PM

"CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W/41W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. BANDS OF TSTMS AROUND THE LOW ARE MORE DISTINCT AND STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL MOVE W TO WNW AT ABOUT 10 KT AND REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE WED."

NWS MLB also monitoring the waves

TWO OTHER FEATURES TO CONSIDER: POORLY INITIALIZED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED 25N 65W WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE THIS SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MAY AFFECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID-LATE WEEK. ALSO...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEKEND.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41709 - Sun Jul 10 2005 03:16 PM

"Not looking for any fish spinners here"

With the way the Azores and subtropical ridge are orientated I wouldn't expect any fish spinners this year (!); was just supporting your storm recognition. I had orginally thought this year was going to be a big CV year with the hardest hit area being from Georgia to the lower Delmarva, shows how bad I am-we still have time though.

Seems like psuedo rex block will be setting up on the east coast, and trapping Dennis's remnants per the NHC track. In another words not much change in the weather pattern over the upper 50, expect maybe a back cold front which wouldn't really be a bad thing with the increase in shear it would bring.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: Keith234]
      #41770 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:25 PM

hmmm.. saw that new rating. anything higher usually gets scored a depression. i don't think NHC will go with it at 5pm, based on how they usually respond to formative systems that aren't within 200 miles of shore. as far as future track.. it may glide in low enough to rip itself up on the lesser antilles.. think that the weakness that the current digging trough off the canadian maritimes will add a northward component until it passes the longitude of it's wake. the subtropical ridge at 500mb is supposed to build east and bridge with the continent late next week, so if it's going north of the islands i reckon what should then be emily will start rocketed westward. interesting that the GFS has been showing an anticyclone aloft moving in tandem with 98L but no strengthening... did that with Dennis and look what happened. this is really a guess, but i'm thinking this thing will be a threat to florida around july 18th.
HF 2125z10july


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: Keith234]
      #41797 - Sun Jul 10 2005 05:26 PM

I remember something about a rex block last year, but I don't remember the specifics. What is a Rex Block and what is a pseudo rex block?

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41798 - Sun Jul 10 2005 05:27 PM

You’re full of crap Hank.

You can already see her western Atlantic/Caribbean loop. Very tiny system…especially made light of with Dennis spinning up north.

EDIT: Sorry about that. July 18 is right around my birthday. What a gift that would be.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Sun Jul 10 2005 05:31 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41799 - Sun Jul 10 2005 05:27 PM

If it were to take that path and a big if, the axis of the trof would contain highly unfavorable shear. Though with the recent similar situation from last year (two back to back gulf storms), and your idea of a small low compact storm why not go with Earl? There are some parallell's, albeit a few. A building subtropical ridge, two previous gulf storms, and the MJO last year was about to empty into the Atlantic (dug it up http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=20551&page=&vc=1); archives can be so useful. So if anyone wants to disagree I'm gonna say 98L's going to become a reincarnated Earl from last year.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: Lysis]
      #41801 - Sun Jul 10 2005 05:28 PM

Hey, he doesn't make the weather- he just tell's it how it is.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: cjzydeco]
      #41803 - Sun Jul 10 2005 05:33 PM

psuedo is an mis-spelled adjective (pseudo) used to describe something not real. I said the rex block was pseudo because it wasn't really one, but it was the best term to describe the situation (at least I think). Information on Rex blocks can be found on the questions forum; I believe I asked the question!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41804 - Sun Jul 10 2005 05:33 PM

I posted this in the older forum on 98L:

Are we to infer that we have a similar....I said similar, not exactly the same, setup as last year with Strong High Pressure dominating the Atl? It seems that it may even be more dramatic forcing more Hurricanes into the Gulf and further to the Central and Western Gulf states.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: stormchazer]
      #41843 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:32 PM

on that note.. i remember joe b talking about how there weren't any tropical cyclones to speak of in other parts of the world.. other basins have been unusually quiet lately. there's a finite heat budget in the tropics that is trying to get out to the mid latitudes... right now the north atlantic is the preferred avenue. it makes sense when you look at how things have been behaving lately.
a rex block is an omega block (just a bulging ridge in the mid-higher latitudes with the jet snaking around it) with an upper cutoff low to the south. what keith is referred to isn't aligned well or going to stay put for very long.. thus the pseudo description.
i don't feel very secure making the progs i have been, actually. i see the potential for something like it is all. but i mean.. that little sucker out front is developing. we'll see about the one in the back soon enough.
HF 0032z11july


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41850 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:48 PM

If only we could describe the potential for tropical cyclone development based on the idea that a certain amount of factors equaled a given number. I believe that's what some of the globals do, but what JB is talking about has it origins in some type of global warming or climate change. Heat can't get to the mid-latitudes then it's stuck in the tropics, and when conditions are just ripe voila .

I don't feel very secure making perdictions either, but as of late I've been very lucky, especially playing Texas hold em'. So just maybe some of that luck will transfer to forecasting

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: Keith234]
      #42356 - Tue Jul 12 2005 01:02 AM

I'm not a complete idiot. I know what psuedo means. And I was just hoping someone could answer my question, not send me off digging through the forum for an answer. Thanks anyway.

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: cjzydeco]
      #42454 - Tue Jul 12 2005 11:20 AM

I believe Hank answered the question, and if you don't like my answers then don't read them. I'm here to learn- not teach.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Area of Interest - Central Tropical Atlantic [Re: Keith234]
      #42477 - Tue Jul 12 2005 12:40 PM

Now now guys....no need for bickering. Let's move on now, okay?

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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