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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Storm Forum

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steve5304
Unregistered




Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Unregistered User]
      #66928 - Wed Jun 14 2006 10:48 AM

That wave near Puerto rico is gonna develop some time this weekend.

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Jenny
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: Bradenton, Florida
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: steve5304]
      #66929 - Wed Jun 14 2006 10:56 AM

Quote:

That wave near Puerto rico is gonna develop some time this weekend.




What are you looking at to back up that statement. Please share with us

--------------------
Jenny
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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newbie
Unregistered




Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66930 - Wed Jun 14 2006 10:59 AM

I noticed this area on the 1315Z Atlantic Visible loop.

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Reaper
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 44
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla 27.34N 81.34W
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: steve5304]
      #66932 - Wed Jun 14 2006 11:06 AM

Quote:

That wave near Puerto rico is gonna develop some time this weekend.




If you are going to make statements such as these, please offer a source for your information or, at least some type of logical reasoning behind it...


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steve5304
Unregistered




Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Reaper]
      #66933 - Wed Jun 14 2006 11:32 AM

why. I just have a feeling. Plus i have been watching it for a few days and it ebbs and flows with its strengh.


You will see as it gets under cuba. Development will be favorable.


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Jenny
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: Bradenton, Florida
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: steve5304]
      #66936 - Wed Jun 14 2006 11:52 AM

Quote:

why. I just have a feeling. Plus i have been watching it for a few days and it ebbs and flows with its strengh.


You will see as it gets under cuba. Development will be favorable.




Steve this site is for sharing facts not just feelings.

If I had gone by my feelings Alberto would have come into my area as a hurricane, but because I went by the facts I was seeing, I knew it would only be a TS and go north of me.

So help the rest of us reach your conclusion share your facts so we can share in it with you

--------------------
Jenny
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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Nateball
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 40
Loc: Tarpon Springs FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66937 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:06 PM

Well said Jenny

Looking down near Panama I'm seeing a pretty strong flare up over water. Just seems to be a lot of active waves for mid june.


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steve5304
Unregistered




Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66938 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:07 PM

Last time I checked this part of the forum was speculative and public.

Nobody here is a scientician so lets get that straight.

I am merely speculating and adding to the topic of the OP.


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AgnesOfHell
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66939 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:09 PM

Been a lot of discussion on the early signs of the 2006 season. Of particular note is the development of the waves in the mid- to eastern Atlantic, and how this looks more like August than June. Even though those waves aren't expected to amount to much, their very presence hints at more to come.

Is there any way this can be measured and compared against previous years? How about even last year - when did this training start kicking in? Years past - yes, seems like it was August before there were even simultaneous features worth mentioning, if even to dismiss them.

--------------------
Standing on the shoulders of giants


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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.65N 88.14W
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: AgnesOfHell]
      #66940 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:15 PM

[quoteIs there any way this can be measured and compared against previous years? How about even last year - when did this training start kicking in? Years past - yes, seems like it was August before there were even simultaneous features worth mentioning, if even to dismiss them.




That is a very good question. Anybody out there have a way to find this out? Please share.



--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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Nateball
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 40
Loc: Tarpon Springs FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: steve5304]
      #66941 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:17 PM

Quote:

Last time I checked this part of the forum was speculative and public.

Nobody here is a scientician so lets get that straight.

I am merely speculating and adding to the topic of the OP.



Speculating is one thing but you said a storm is going to develop this weekend, Jenny was only saying if your going to post a comment like that she wanted to see if you had any facts thats all. We are all learning here, speculating is fine just make sure you try and word it better so we understand your just posting a opinion.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: AgnesOfHell]
      #66943 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:40 PM

Quote:

Been a lot of discussion on the early signs of the 2006 season. Of particular note is the development of the waves in the mid- to eastern Atlantic, and how this looks more like August than June. Even though those waves aren't expected to amount to much, their very presence hints at more to come.

Is there any way this can be measured and compared against previous years? How about even last year - when did this training start kicking in? Years past - yes, seems like it was August before there were even simultaneous features worth mentioning, if even to dismiss them.



If you mean the wave train coming off the African coast, it started in earnest in July.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #66944 - Wed Jun 14 2006 01:05 PM

Here's a good view of all the areas of interest:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: steve5304]
      #66951 - Wed Jun 14 2006 04:42 PM

The Storm Forum is, in fact, for the opposite -- for scientific discussion on current and potential tropical cyclone features. For speculation, we have the Forecast Lounge forum.

A lot of the discussion on this feature is very nice, but please refrain from making statements as to their development without providing some evidence as to why you feel that way.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Jenny
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: Bradenton, Florida
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66953 - Wed Jun 14 2006 05:44 PM

Storm Watchin Dan by that image it looks as if ithe wave has gotten its act back toegther. Ealier today the wave looked as if it was falling apart.

--------------------
Jenny
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66954 - Wed Jun 14 2006 06:25 PM

Quote:

Storm Watchin Dan by that image it looks as if ithe wave has gotten its act back toegther. Ealier today the wave looked as if it was falling apart.




That's exactly what I was thinking, but I'm glad you said it first. *LOL* It looked like it was losing its punch before.

What's the geography of those islands down there? Maybe it was getting disrupted by mountains and now it's back over open water it's firing up again?

From the NHC 2:05pm discussion:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR AS ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAY BUT IT STILL DOES SHOW SOME SIGNATURE. THE RAIN SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY COVERS 15N-19N BETWEEN
69W-74W. SOME OF THE SHOWERS IN THIS AREA ARE BECOMING MORE
CONVECTIVE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A FEW BUOY AND SHIP
OBS HAVE SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS.

Okay, question, what do the trade winds do to it? Is that good or bad?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: madmumbler]
      #66955 - Wed Jun 14 2006 06:34 PM

man look at the size of that wave thats coming off of africa. what is going on in june? man this is serious stuff.

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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66956 - Wed Jun 14 2006 06:42 PM

Looking at the WV imagery from the GOES sat, it seems this wave's going to be passing into more favorable areas for development (the mid/upper/high lvl winds all seem to align in roughly the same direction West of Hispaniola, as well as a lack of all that dry air) if it continues on a WNW track, but I could be reading the vanes totally wrong, heck, they might not even be representing the wind.

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: BullitNutz]
      #66957 - Wed Jun 14 2006 07:20 PM

You are correct is will be moving into an area more conducive for tropical development but the models continue toshow nothing with it or the other 2 in the east. We will have to wait and see.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: NewWatcher]
      #66958 - Wed Jun 14 2006 07:34 PM

Not real sure of anything developing in the near future...but as models go...the CMC and MM5FSU 12Z runs hint very slightly at something in this area in a few days. All in all, pretty tame right now.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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