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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Storm Forum

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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #66959 - Wed Jun 14 2006 08:12 PM

I have a good link for the models, I don't know if anyone else has a hard time with the fwd, stop, +1, etc buttons being at the bottom of the screen, so here is one where the buttons are to the right of the maps..Let me know if I totally goofed this up

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

Christine,
St. Petersbrug, FL


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: sara33]
      #66960 - Wed Jun 14 2006 08:25 PM

That will work just fine however you missing a few models...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Try this and it is also linked on the Main Page...

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #66962 - Wed Jun 14 2006 08:39 PM

Gang...Couple comments from the peanut gallery here...
1.) Computer models, specifically GFS seem to be firing up lots of interesting nothings in my opinion, but missing some other possible somethings.
2.) Alberto's remanant trough is acting like an old front across the gulf...Has anyone looked at what's moving into the BOC this evening on the tail end of the remanat trough! Interesting...Looks to me like a new surface low is spinning up at the end of it. Huh....
3.) Before Sunset, it looked like the central carrib wave was trying to spin something up again...then...it collapsed. Is there a presence of a mid level low at the very least to the south of Hispanola?
4.) Very much agree, lots of active waves for this time of year in the Altantic. Eventually things are gonna get favorable out there and we're gonna be looking at a lot of things.
5.) There seem to be more posts here...just wondering if this forum might be making it over to the front page. I don't know if out less expereinced visitors are seeing this forum on the right hand menu...but with that said...Many continued Kudoe to the Mods, Mets, and administrators of this website during Alberto. You kept the site up and running, factual, and in check. Awesome!


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: dem05]
      #66964 - Wed Jun 14 2006 08:45 PM

Would that Blob around 70W be considered a tropical wave?

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: sara33]
      #66966 - Wed Jun 14 2006 09:36 PM

wave south of hispaniola is speeding. it's probably going too fast to do much. might be more interesting when it slows down, which should be much further west near central america.
the other two in the open ocean are looking none the better, but still impressive for this time of year. a major convective blowup could spark something, but evolution will be quite slow. climatological odds are against both.
alberto came at the tail end of an SOI negative pulse in the pacific... which is pretty much a shift from the equatorial trades from easterly to backing westerly. backing westerly winds cause a ton of convergence.. and often come in tandem with an MJO wave pulse. in alberto's case that's pretty much what crunched things up and let the system develop.
SOI is down again, so in a week or two we may have another pattern-induced system. the ones in the meanwhile will have to hack things out the old fashioned way, which is very hard to do outside of the much improved conditions for waves to develop that occur in august-september.
HF 0236z15june


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: HanKFranK]
      #66967 - Wed Jun 14 2006 09:41 PM

Thanks HF!

So are we seeing more activity rolling off of Africa than normal at this time of year? Looking at NOAA it looks like there is a lot more to come. I wish I could see the activity for June last year, is there a link or something that might show all of the activity for each month in the previous years? That would be a great help!

Thanks again,
Christine


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Thomas Giella
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 25
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: sara33]
      #66971 - Wed Jun 14 2006 10:36 PM

Speaking of the SOI it had tanked to around -10 last time I looked. Also all indications point to a return of El Nino conditions again by fall. Hopefully that will take the edge off of the peak of this tropical cyclone season and also ensure we avoid two consecutive winters with drought.

--------------------
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Lakeland, FL, USA
flycylone@tampabay.rr.com

Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm



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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Thomas Giella]
      #66980 - Wed Jun 14 2006 11:40 PM

It looks likes its dieing down...we'll have to check it in the morning. Meanwhile theres other waves too, right now conditions arent favorable but we kinda still have to watch them in the next couple of days.

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My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66999 - Thu Jun 15 2006 01:58 PM

It poofed.. Well there is something off africa and in the GOM so... just waves.
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/atlanticoceansatellite_large.html
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/caribbeansatellite_large.html
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/gulfofmexicosatellite_large.html

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My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: sara33]
      #67010 - Fri Jun 16 2006 09:52 AM

Wednesday night, TWC (can't remember if it was Cantore or which one it was) talked about a loop current (can't remember if that's exactly what they called it) that's extending VERY far out into the Atlantic from Africa, unusually far, that will help give "spin" to possible systems. They said if it keeps up, later in the season as we see more waves coming in, that it could enhance development.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: madmumbler]
      #67025 - Fri Jun 16 2006 10:23 PM

Thanks !
I have been watching the flare up in the carribbean, and it looks like the models might do something with this storm,BUT, it looks to be a fish storm, hopefully it will stay that way! Please correct me if I am wrong Mets??:)
As for the stuff coming off of Africa, I am not sure how that looked this time last year, I only started following these storms later in the season in '05, but looks like a lot of stuff, I am thinking that the SST's are still a little low to give these waves a chance.. Am I correct?
Thanks everyone for all of your help! Always learning!!!

Christine

Edited by sara33 (Fri Jun 16 2006 10:25 PM)


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