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Archives 2000s >> 2008 Storm Forum

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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: Hurricane29]
      #79833 - Thu May 22 2008 04:30 PM

14/7/4

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 368
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: Doombot!]
      #79844 - Fri May 23 2008 10:10 PM

Didn't do too well at this last year as my first try. This year I am going a bit consevative considering the trend of the past 2 years. How about 15/6/2.
That and $3.75 will get you a Frappacino at Starbucks!!

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79845 - Sat May 24 2008 12:57 AM

Just a reminder that this thread will remain open for another week for those of you that still might want to include your own forecast for the season or revise a previously posted forecast.
Cheers,
ED


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79846 - Sat May 24 2008 01:45 PM

17 storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79848 - Sat May 24 2008 10:02 PM

Complete guess, as long-range stuff is not my forte:

13/8/4

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: Clark]
      #79849 - Sun May 25 2008 02:49 AM

Guesscasting time.. mine is 15-7-4

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79855 - Sun May 25 2008 06:32 PM

Greetings & Salutations

I've been loathe to change my original expectation of 13/8/3, but Clark sets the example for me in conceding that long range stuff isn't my thing, either, and if he can concede that, surely this armchair hurricane season prognosticator can.

The following is wordy, and I'm mostly talking to myself as I write this -- talking out my logic --

I have found that my original reasoning back in February no longer applies as well, as La Nina has been easing up a good deal faster than most anticipated, and certainly much quicker than CPC's official forecast, itself.

Additionally, it now appears that a significant monsoon trough is trying to set up over and either side of central America. As mentioned elsewhere on Flhurricane, several models are already sniffing this out for enhanced early-season cyclogenesis in both the Caribbean-SW GOM, and far eastern Pacific...

And we are seeing upward pulses in the MJO over this region.

These could flip on its head my earlier sense that the region west of the Antilles would be slow to get going.

Over to the eastern Atlantic, the northern Saharan region has been quite dry. On one hand, some resulting extra heat and wind may scoot waves farther along without dying out than had this not been the case, but on the other, there might just be enough extra dust floating off to subdue more frequent development out in the farther central-eastern Atlantic than I initially thought... However, this may be more than offset by anomalously high precipitation falling over a region bounded by 10N and 25N over western Africa.

Also of note, the ECMWF forecast
is calling for statistically significant lower pressures over much of the central & eastern Atlantic, as well as much of the southwestern GOM, for the season...

as well as neutral ENSO during the important July-Aug-Sept period, which suggest that La Nina's influence on the heart of the season may be very weak or essentially gone by Aug-October.

Lacking the skills to really make a case one way or the other, based on the above and prior experience, I am tweaking my February guesstimate from 13/8/3 to 16/8/4... with action now much more possible than I earlier thought, in the area western Atl.... in the Caribbean & into the GOM.. and greater chances for waves to become named storms while crossing just about anywhere in the entire length of the Atlantic.

I would guess for a higher number of named storms becoming hurricanes if I had a better sense that overall shear would be much lower and/or the QBO phase was going to be more conducive.

--Now watch as I eat crow and wish I kept with my February numbers!


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Hootie Hoo
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Loc: Austin Tx
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: cieldumort]
      #79859 - Mon May 26 2008 02:11 AM

15/8/4 for me.

As we are less than a week away from the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season, I want to take this opportunity to wish everone in the great State of Florida the best. May you have NO hurricanes, yet have enough rain to keep your state as beautiul as it is. I had the privilege of coming to Florida (for my first time ever!) to help victims of Hurricanes Charlie, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne in 2005, and I fell in love with your state. Warm and wonderful people. You treated us (Texans) with great respect and awesome hospitality. Be safe and prepared everyone! And thanks for the great knowlege you all share on this site. We'll be watching all season!


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79867 - Mon May 26 2008 08:17 PM

Cieldumort 's post caught my attention and prompted a revisit of the latest 6-month SST forecasts. The rapid change in forecast ENSO SST anomalies continues. The current forecast would imply about a -0.4C Region 3.4 anomaly, but given the trend toward a rapid decline in the existing La Nina, the reality forecast is probably more like -0.2C for the May/June/July average anomaly.

This meant that the analog years should be revisited - and what a change there as well. I could not find a significantly similar analog year that was a true good match for what has happened in the ENSO region this year, but the following years are best selections in priority order:

2001 - 15/9/4 - not as cold at start of year, but realistic for end of year.
1976 - 10/6/2 - probably too warm at end of year
1951 - 10/8/2 - not as cold at start of year
1989 - 11/7/2 - Remained cooler than currently expected during the season

Based on the above, my first thought was to leave my earlier forecast of 12/7/3 intact, but with deference to 2001 I've upped my totals slightly to 13/8/3.
Cheers,
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4359
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79871 - Tue May 27 2008 10:43 AM

14/7/2

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: MikeC]
      #79874 - Tue May 27 2008 03:28 PM

17/9/5

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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John C
Unregistered




Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: Hurricane29]
      #79876 - Tue May 27 2008 06:51 PM

12 / 6 / 3

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: ]
      #79877 - Tue May 27 2008 07:37 PM

14/7/4

I'm in the process of buying property in the Outer Banks, so I hope I'm wrong.

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 60
Loc: Waldo Florida
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: Ed in Va]
      #79882 - Wed May 28 2008 07:49 AM

My first shot at this, so don't hold my feet to the fire. Seems we've been lucky for the past couple years, (Knock on wood), but I'm going for 18/6/3. Good luck, gang, we'll see shortly. (After 3 years, I still love the Sunshine state.)

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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #79889 - Wed May 28 2008 12:05 PM

I'm going to go middle of the road here: 15/6/3 and hope for the best - all fish spinners.

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Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6

Edited by MichaelA (Wed May 28 2008 12:21 PM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season [Re: MichaelA]
      #79980 - Sat May 31 2008 02:58 PM

19/9/5

Texas and NC are my high risk areas

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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for the 2008 Season - June Update [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #80062 - Fri Jun 06 2008 01:10 PM

Just an FYI:

CSU June Update unchanged at 15/8/4

TSR June Update lowered to 14/8/3


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