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Archives 2000s >> 2009 Storm Forum

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JAH
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: W.Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009 [Re: Doombot!]
      #85373 - Mon Apr 27 2009 04:24 PM

I've got to go with Doombot with 9/7/2 because of the El Nino and African Dust should hold down the formations.

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Valandil
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Hamburg, Germany
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85374 - Wed Apr 29 2009 04:11 AM

13/6/3

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009 [Re: Doombot!]
      #85375 - Wed Apr 29 2009 03:33 PM

14/8/4

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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009 [Re: scottsvb1]
      #85376 - Wed Apr 29 2009 09:03 PM

just like the nfl draft, everything is a crapshoot until the season gets underway and things constantly change. i will say 16/7/3 for the heck of it and there are no reasons as to why anyone would know of possible trends for the upcoming season. all bets are off! in all seriousness, welcome to another season and hopefully everyone is ready and we don't see a catastrophe.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009 [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #85380 - Tue May 05 2009 10:47 PM

Hurricane Season 2009 15/9/5

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85480 - Fri May 22 2009 07:59 PM

I'm guessing 14/7/5.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85516 - Fri May 29 2009 09:43 AM

Time to rethink the 2009 Outlook (again). There are increasing indications that at least a moderate El Nino will develop in the Pacific during June and July and continue for the remainder of the season. That, coupled with a continued cool tropical Atlantic through September suggest that an active season is no longer likely, and I've lowered my seasonal expectation to 10/6/3 (and it wouldn't surprise me if the actual numbers are even lower if the El Nino event becomes stronger). Analog years are 1965 and 1951.

A reminder that this thread will remain open through May, so you still have a couple of days to make your own forecast for the season or revise a previously made forecast.
Cheers,
ED


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85517 - Fri May 29 2009 10:22 AM

OK - - the Darts say - - 13/8/4

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4359
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009 [Re: Wingman51]
      #85519 - Fri May 29 2009 07:36 PM

I'm going for 11/6/2

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85522 - Sun May 31 2009 06:34 PM

Wouldn't I love to take another three months to toss my best guesses in. This season looks particularly vulnerable to several competing influences, of which there appear to be no clear dominant players at this point. I'm going with 11-5-2, and this is extremely low confidence, whereas last year at this time I was jubilant about my guesses. In this "active era" I almost can't believe I am going with such relatively low numbers, but the best writing on the wall seems to point that way - this month, anyway -

I have to add that the potential for a much more active Atlantic season seems about as likely as the potential for an even less active season. While a few numbers lower than 11, 5 & 2 would not be all that low climatologically-speaking, over the course of post-1994 era, anything under 11+5+2 would still be on the surprisingly low end.

As an aside, the real potential for the development of a solid El Niño during the heart of the season could not only shut off the Atlantic just about entirely, but really ramp up the strength and numbers in the central and eastern Pacific. The last time we saw a solid El Niño during the post 1994 era, 2002, the central+east pac birthed a very impressive 15 names, 8 of which became hurricanes, of which 6 became major hurricanes including a whopping 3 Cat 5s.

Prior to that stunner, 1997 also saw a very active central+east pac within the post-1994 era: 19 names, 9 hurricanes, and 7 majors!

1997 cooked up Hurricane Linda. With an estimated pressure of 902 mb, Linda was the most intense central-east pac hurricane on record.

Fast on the heels of Linda, Nora formed, and went on to become the first eastern pacific tropical cyclone to bring sustained tropical storm-force winds at the surface to the continental US since 1976. At the higher elevations of mountains in Utah, Nora's remnant circulation even sheared the tops off of hundreds of large trees in the Dixie National Forest.

Nora entering Arizona Sept 25, 1997


Hurricane Nora Storm Report
Prepared by the Flood Control District of Maricopa County, Az.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85527 - Mon Jun 01 2009 12:40 PM

Thanks to all that participated in this years annual seasonal prediction exercise. The average for the 26 forecasts is 13/7/4. The lowest forecasts for the season were 9/7/2 and the highest was 17/10/5.

The thread is now closed, but we'll check it out at season's end and see how well we did.
Cheers,
ED


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