Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2009 Storm Forum

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 302
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: hogrunr]
      #86621 - Sun Aug 30 2009 10:06 AM

I pulled this excerpt out of the discussion from NWS San Juan that I posted earlier on the recent news board as it could directly impact the track of 94L
"FOR TUE-WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS HEIGHTS RISE AS MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROP ATLC BUILDS WESTWARD. HOWEVER...CAP DOES NOT LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT DO EXPECT A SIG DROP
IN CONVECTIVE CVRG."
The forward speed of 94 if coincides with the advance of the ridge to the west should keep it moving W to WNW.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: craigm]
      #86623 - Sun Aug 30 2009 10:26 AM

well as of now, conditions are very favorable for a development. most likely by the end of the day or tonight. its hit some warmer waters due to the fact it keeps heading in that westardly motion. it looks preety good right now, the center of the storm looks to be flaring up nicely and holding together quite well. these models confuse me however. im not paying attention to them right now, they are all split down the middle and indecisive. ill wait for the NHC to bump it up. then some of the model runs might be a bit more stable and come into more agreement.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
gatorman
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: 30.29N 85.64W
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86625 - Sun Aug 30 2009 11:55 AM

question, there seems to be a "blob" under cuba, i know these things blow up and then dissapate very quickly, but this seems to be holding on pretty well? just wondering if this could be something just starting, seems to be moving due north? thanks for your input. watching 94L looks impressive, somewhat hopeful it might get in the gulf, def moving into warmer water.... :?:

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LSU FAN
Unregistered




Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: gatorman]
      #86626 - Sun Aug 30 2009 12:19 PM

Quote:

question, there seems to be a "blob" under cuba, i know these things blow up and then dissapate very quickly, but this seems to be holding on pretty well? just wondering if this could be something just starting, seems to be moving due north? thanks for your input. watching 94L looks impressive, somewhat hopeful it might get in the gulf, def moving into warmer water.... :?:




There have been no models that have predicted or hinted that this system will go into the GOM, as a matter of fact, the models are predicting the system to make a wnw turn in the near future.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Area of Interest SW Caribbean Sea [Re: LSU FAN]
      #86628 - Sun Aug 30 2009 12:43 PM

That area east of the Isthmus of Panama will probably cross over into the E Pacific. IF it follows the trrack of the last few systems.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hurikid
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 14
Loc: Barbados
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: LSU FAN]
      #86632 - Sun Aug 30 2009 02:18 PM

I can now see the circulation clearly on the IR(Rainbow) Loop....seems to have gone back to a more westward heading again..

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: LSU FAN]
      #86633 - Sun Aug 30 2009 02:19 PM

Quote:

Quote:

question, there seems to be a "blob" under cuba, i know these things blow up and then dissapate very quickly, but this seems to be holding on pretty well? just wondering if this could be something just starting, seems to be moving due north? thanks for your input. watching 94L looks impressive, somewhat hopeful it might get in the gulf, def moving into warmer water.... :?:




There have been no models that have predicted or hinted that this system will go into the GOM, as a matter of fact, the models are predicting the system to make a wnw turn in the near future.




But we have to be careful watching any of the models at this point, they track the systems possible movement based (more accurately anyway) on the higher level winds being the steering currents. Right now it is only being steered by lower level winds since it is so disorganized. It would not surprise me at all if this made it into the GOM area since it is still moving due west.

One of the last, good, visible satellite images of the day (arrow marks COC):



Edited by hogrunr (Sun Aug 30 2009 05:46 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: hogrunr]
      #86655 - Mon Aug 31 2009 09:54 AM

94l looks really impressive, those warm waters agree with it well. looks organized, theres a cos, nice convection. i would have to say today might be the day it gets bumped to a TD, maybe more.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86663 - Mon Aug 31 2009 11:03 AM

94L certainly looks formidable and sizable, however still have not seen any surface observations indicating falling pressures, especially closest to the CDO. Based on this, I do not believe that NHC will upgrade 94L to a depression any earlier than 5:00pm today. Thereafter, and assuming that the overall convection continues, than perhaps this evening or tomorrow.

After looking at every different satellite resolution, I just can't seem to make out any specific point of higher top ( convective ) turning. Perhaps more interestingly, and in every effort to further hasten my current eye strain...., observation of both the visable and RGB resolutions are starting to make me think that a low level center may have been well seperated over the past couple days, and thus this feature several degrees to the west and slightly south ( which too appears to be convecting a little ), may be competing and/or cutting off inflow to a newly forming LLC under the main CDO. In most small areas of disturbed weather, any well established low level swirl if sheared apart, would simply move on, and eventually "spin out". Perhaps given the larger and more protective envelope of this current system, such a lower level center might still realign with a newly forming low/mid level. This, or that we may be simply dealing with such a broad low level center, that only now that there has been any significant consistancy of convection, that perhaps this system might finally work its way down to the surface.

For the potential rationale described above, and appearant lack of obvious low level inflow and falling pressures, this is why I would tend to think NHC may hold off upgrading 94L to a depression. Given the upper level southerly shear in place, its just hard to guess whether we'll be looking at forming bands in 12 hours, or a total collapse of all convection.

I do believe that if and when we do start seeing falling pressures, and what would appear to be a consolodated surface center ( perhaps late this eve. or tomorrow? ), that we certainly could see a rapid upgrade, perhaps straight to TS. Then, model data will become particularly interesting.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 12322

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center