Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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The system has failed to develop an eye and winds are just 10 kts. shy of hurricane intensity. Oh well...Newfoundland better brace itself anyways. They have one hell of a storm coming...tropical or not...it's Newfoundland or bust for Arthur.
The next storm should form between July 23 and August 5th. The Gulf of Mexico maybe the area for the action this time. Perhaps a trough split over Texas with the convection moving over water and developing. Just a prediction. I'm serioius about the timeframe, though.
    
Kevin
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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All I know is that we have a heatwave on the way. Mid-upper 90's for most of the rest of the week. The Gulf is already reportedly 87 degrees here (TWC & WWL). We're getting a surface high and then an upper high as well. That should quiet things down as the ridge slips westward across the Gulf. Unfortunately all my suits are wool blends and I have to walk through concrete hell to get to my parking lot.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Go watch Bastardi's tropical update today. He has put forth a theory which he briefly illustrates how 2002's recurvatures and potential landfalls may be further north and west from 2001's. He drew a line from N FL to Lake Pontchartrain and said, "We'll see how all that plays out down the line."
On a day when there isn't a whole lot going on, it's probably worth a look.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well Arthur certainly seems in a hurry to get to Newfoundland, with forward motion at near 40 mph! Quite a pace. Looks set to hit Newfoundland tonight with heavy rains and sustained winds of 50 to 55 kntos / 60 to 65 mph, as an storm. He will also probably dump quite a bit of rain, especially anywhere east of his centre.
Cristina in the NE Pacific is still subject of advisories, despite being devoid of convection for over 36 hours! The centre is still spiing away quite merrily.
Anyway, just wanted to post about Arthur as the board seems quite quiet.
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Elena...was in my EOC for 47 hours!
IHS,
Bill
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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Interesting!! I hope he is not correct on his theory. The stuff does come in cycles though. But you have to look at the odds also. If you are along the coast it's really not a matter of if one will hit you it is when will it hit you and how strong will it be. For all that haven't been through one now is the time to get your stuff together unless you want to stand in check out lines for several hours. They can form fast and change directions over nite.
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Matthew
Unregistered
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looking at our storm as of now still has a low leavel center in a warm core. so I think it will stay tropical another 12 hours or so intill it hits land but i'm sure that the will make it a gale center before it hits land. so it might still have its name.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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It sure is going to be a hot week here in florida unless you can find some relief near beach, but still around 90 F. Northern sections of the state will top out near 100 F next couple of days with 90 to 96 degree heat rest of state.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Has Mike Aderson's site ECTWC died like the tropical season so far. No updates since 06/26. I need to know whether to delete it from my favorites.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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We'll miss you Texas, say hello to Atlantis.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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just for kicks i counted the number of landfalling hurricane intensity storms in the u.s. back as far as the unisys records go. though i dont consider the older records wholly reliable, they show that there were significantly MORE hits than what weve been averaging over the last half decade or so from 1851 to the 1950s. the overall season average hits during the 151 year period is 1.7 hits a year, 17 a decade. the last time any decade had 17 hits was in the 1950s, ever since the number has fallen short. 14 in the 60s, 12 in the 70s, and 13 in both the 80s and 90s. compare that to 17, 21, 18, 20, 21 from the 1900s to the 1940s. about 50% more, on average. so if the number of u.s. hits WERE a reliable indicator, it would mean that either a higher percentage of storms that formed hit, or that there were just more storms overall and that not all were detected and recorded. but really, fewer hits since the advent of modern observation? is there some force field protecting the u.s.? i wish the government would tell me so i stop hearing about dynogel.
anyhow, another fluke... based on the not too convincing records going back around 150 years, the percentage of seasons without a u.s. hurricane landfall is 19.21%. so, the probability that any three consecutive years will not feature a u.s. hurricane landfall is .192^3, or a mere .71%. so a string of three consecutive years w/o a u.s. hurricane is a 141 year event, based on this figure, based on questionable data.
but since this is just any other year, ignoring the fact that the last two had no hurricane hits, there is a 19% chance that no hurricanes hit.
in other words, if a hurricane doesnt hit this year, it would be a weird, rare event.
we are just so overdue, in so many ways. unless something has fundamentally changed about the climate, u.s. hurricanes are becoming less common.
north carolina is about the only place in the u.s. making par for the average lately.. it is slightly to well below almost everywhere else on the east/gulf coasts.
HanKFranK aikenSC 0609z17july
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Matthew
Unregistered
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How true {HF] on those 150 year, land fall stats. I think that this year will see a hurricane hit the u.s, and a few tropical storms. As for the atlantic not anything are tropical storm is gone. That storm last lease than 2 days and top winds of 60 mph. Nothing else than a few thunderstorms. Pacific there is a tropical low that might turn in to the next one. In there one and the central pacific may form too. so not that boring after all !!! Counting the western pacific this is a powerful looking typhoon or super typhoon. So next forecast wednesday.
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neflorida
Unregistered
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Has anyone noticed that area off of the South Carolina-Georgia coast that blew up over night? I am very new to this, just thought it was interesting. Could it develop into anything?
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Matthew
Unregistered
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No !!!
:  : no low forming.
pressure to high!!!
going to move inland to fast.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Interesting stats. NOAA took a different approach, but with the same consensus. Since Irene (Oct 99) there have been 19 Hurricanes in the Atlantic basin without a U.S. landfall. Using past records, they compute that the likelyhood of such a drought in landfall with that many hurricanes is less than one-tenth of one percent. Therefore, anyone forecasting at least one U.S. landfalling hurricane this year is making a pretty safe forecast - the odds are sure in your favor.
Cheers,
ED
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