Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
This one regards the developing situation in the Southwestern Caribbean. It's really not a problem yet, but I think we have to watch this one. Good organization, good convection, not a whole lot of sheer.
Start the voting!
Kevin   
|
The Mobilian
Unregistered
|
|
Has anyone seen a more northerly drift to that SW Carribean cyclonic mass of convection in the past hour? Can anyone tell where the Lower Level Low associated with that convection is centered now? What is the time frame of the forecast for the Hi centered over the Gulf. Will it still be centered over central Gulf in 24 hours, or further east?
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
As of 2:30, the circulation (on the IR) appeared to be overland in Central America moving WNW probably toward the East PAC. I don't know if some of the convection won't last into the BoC, but my early guess would have landed this all in the EPAC sometime on Sunday morning.
I'll have to look at it again tonight.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
TPC's outlook at 11:30 did note a WNW movement. It's more apparent in the Vis and IR than the WV which appears to show the whole mass moving more westward.
I'ma try to get on UM for the 5:00 report and see if they're still saying the same thing.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
19/1745 UTC 10.0N 83.1W TOO WEAK 92E -- Atlantic Ocean
92E
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Alex K
Unregistered
|
|
First: The area of Disturbed weather in the Caribbean. I'm not saying it won't develop, but if it moves wnw over land write it off until the E. Pac. However, most of the convection is still over land
Second: The wave coming off Africa: A bit early in the season, but it's still possible. An interesting note: Most of the Wave's convection formed after it moved off Africa. We'll have to look for a low level circulation on both of these systems.
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
sw carib system, at this impossibly late hour, still has most of its convection on the atlantic side. either some trick of an upper feature or maybe the surface feature is not where the ssd people think... maybe going nw like said? unlikely yes, but not impossible until it crosses into the basin we care less about.
speaking of impossible, check the convection that keeps going off the jersey shore. yes i know that it is along a stalled front, crazy to even mention, but SSTs up there are pretty cranked. million to one, but hey, i like it when the weather invents a new pitch to throw at us.
itcz off africa looking as lively as ever.. waves have finally got some meat on them. in other words i can almost distinguish them without having to look for subtle trade wind surges in the low level windfield. probably not enough to fester up a low, but another step in that direction.
such is the state of the atlantic at.. ok, should have waited til tomorrow to finish that book..
HanKFranK sc 0725z20july
prog for july 20th: another day of quick glance, nope, nothin.
|
Matthew
Unregistered
|
|
We start this forecast stating i'm not Joe b. I was looking at the center of this on the 18th of july that won'd it looked like it had a nice LLC in alot of thunderstorms and it had 2.5 d number that is a tropical storm in I don't no why the did not make this a t.d it had every thing for a short lived t.d in the pacific. I think they like to make almost to the point of tropical storm so they didn't waste there time but they are getting payed to number theys storms each one that meats t.d should be numbered heck already there was like 3 storms that should of been numbered in they did not in the atlantic so whats a t.d a close center and thunderstorms or a nice area of thunderstorms with a some what closed center above 5 north lat and over 78 waters. should I say more and tropical storm well formed LLC and rainbands with outflow and thunderstorms thats all in maybe a upper leavel high to move the heat away form the storm. Hurricane 74 mph winds and will formed overcast and or with out eye wall only the best won'd eye is there in my words. So do you think that should be the way of the on these storms. So in the southwest cabn there is a low pressure at 1010 and mostly over land upper low to the north of it is shearing it so no forecast storm out of this maybe in the pacific and a few days. that what I think about that. So it brings us to the eastern atlantic as of right now the waves are looking good and the avn has been showing something we may half to watch in time with a new tropical wave caming into the altlantic ocean so bring it on. That was my forecast next forecast july won'd ever I feel like it. Matthew    
|
Matthew
Unregistered
|
|
Its about time this area gets made a t.d. The winds are 35 mph and a low leavel center is to the north end of the thunderstorms. This is a plus for the avn that forecasted it in so the track will take it in to cooler waters in 72 hours or so. The winds forecast is forecasted by the to reach hurricane in 48 hours than weaken than after into the 72 hour time or so there is a high to the north that could change this forecast to more westward but the avn northwest to west north west looks good. This is my forecast on t.d 5 has of 8pm pt and 11pm et time. There is a blob of thunder storms in the cabn so we will watch this. Eastern atlantic strong tropical waves avn also watching these. So a plus for the as of right. Do not use these forecast for life saving forecast that you keep to the for that. The gulf of mexico is very warm in the 90s so that why there so much rain in the south east u.s because warm water go into the air that makes alot of rain so thats why in some places there 40 inches of rain a week in that way this is going to be one good hurricane season. In plus more water in the air means more humid air so more rain in thunderstorms with more humid air to go around means more flooding or at winter more snow that means more colder outbreaks with more snow on the ground witch starts out looking like warmming is going on will the truth is its more wetter around with means stronger hurricanes and tropical storms witch adds heat to the air that move to the north that keeps are plantent in order but thats just starting things the freash water falls on the ocean slowing the gulf stream cooling the northern put of earth in with time the water streams will spread in start the cooling all over earth than the NOAA all feel very sorry. Than we go in to ice in snow a cross earth that will not stop for month on end flooding rains snowstorms and really big hurricane will not stop for a very long time the food we die there will be hunger a cross earth. Globle warming ha thats childs play to whats could be coming in the next 20 years to start with than all heck breaks lose so sorry of you don't like this but I have a right to think what I want. Forecaster Matthew
|
Matthew
Unregistered
|
|
I'm very sorry I did that wow once I get into my self I do not stop first tropical forecast witch is fine than I want crazy just wanted to tell you this before you got mad. sorry I can't email you my computer do's not do that. Tropical weather lover Matthew.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Matthew,
I'm still waiting for your answers. PM me if you're afraid to e-mail the info. You do have PM if you can access this site.
TPS
|
Matthew
Unregistered
|
|
I wish I could can;t get or post out with this computer but have email or I could not be here thats funny my computer every time I try says err.
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
okay, so he isnt telling us what prince denis thought of judy garland just yet, but the 20 years of lamentation prediction was right on up there with paloma suggesting that he was moses. okay, maybe not, and he DID try to mix some weather voodoo in with it.. but this was still a trip to la la land. aside from the serious need for grammar education, the kid's weirdness doesnt really resemble the former site weirdo. thats IF he is a kid, at least. there are lots of fiftyish fat bald guys claiming to be eighteen year old fast car driving hotshots, trying to talk to thirteen year old flirty girls on the internet, or at least that's the stereotype most people associate with net weirdos. matthew can post here but can't communicate to confirm his identity, how convenient. tends to draw the more obscure oddballs.. a guy who spammed weird trivia and claimed to be different people, and a supposed kid who insists on telling everyone about the weather apocalypse in his imagination, in a language only he can understand. ya know, we spend half the downtime and most of the offseason talking about all the mentally dysfunctional people that tend to pop up, so i might as well submit a poll on it.
so here it is, the first poll on what everybody thinks the cornelius bros should do about the loco weed growing in our crop of weather fans.
a'ite well that wasnt entirely for entertainment purposes. theres a real issue here.. to be charitable or to be practical. here's a clear parallel i can draw.. when i was in middle school, in a rather politically correct school district, we still had both sexes in the same P.E. classes, along with the mentally handicapped. for all the good intentions i'm sure the district had, there was an ability disparity between the sexes and a much greater one between the mentally normal and the mentally retarded. nobody really wanted them around, they just sort of messed up whatever game was being played. i can understand the ideology that says leave no child behind, but on the other side of the coin, do you want to degrade things for all the other kids who want to play on their level? was that fair?
thats the philosophical nugget i cooked up.. have fun with the poll, but please consider what i'm saying.
HanKFranK aikenSC 1819z20july
|
BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
|
|
Somehow I am sure that the moderators will not let this go over the top!
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Actually, this is getting close to where I'd shut of anonymous posts on here and require registraion. (Which only requires a valid email address to do) I'd rather not, but will do so if it gets out of hand, temporarily.
Thanks, and please keep things reasonable and on topic.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Lynch Mob baby.
Steve
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
I can finally begin posting a whole lot more now because we have Windows XP up and Windows 98 out of our system. All I can say is XP kicks 98 in it's little butt as far as stability goes.
Tropics: Things are becoming more active, and the patterns of this season are becoming clearer to me. It looks like this season is going to occur in "spurts". The easterly jet (very, very impressive for July) coming off of Africa today could well be a season-long trend. One of these waves may pose a threat of developing, and that is the one that seems to be at around 11 or 12 north and 20 west. It has good convection and a decent satellite appearance. If it persists and if we see inflow on the west side begin to take place, development may occur. Even if development doesn't occur, we are taking a step forward as far as chances for development in the Eastern Atlantic.
The Caribbean convection is just for looks, for now. We need to see it make into the Gulf and develop an LLC that's closer to the convection for development to occur.
To sum it up, the horses are at the gate. When the gate opens, we may meet some horses that aren't nice.
|
ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
I must say that you and John run a very respectful site here. I'm very honored to be able to post my views and comments about something that I don't know a whole heck of alot about but certainly enjoy..... tropical systems. Everyone on this site has always treated me with respect even though they may not agree with what I was saying and that is VERY HARD to find on the internet now days. That is what makes this site second to none. You have made some great improvements this year to this site and it is better than ever. I understand the idea of letting people share their love and interest in hurricanes and having the freedom to do so, but there is a limit. I can't speak for everyone, but the reason why this site is first in my favorites list is because of how enjoyable it is for me to post my views and even more enjoyable to read the posts of those who can help me understand these storms a little better. Right now, I don't find reading CERTAIN posts that are being made very enjoyable. Now I know that I'm not the brightest person on this site and I certainly know that there are many of those who post here who possess greater knowledge than I, but I try to stick to the subject that this great site is based on..... the tropics. I can deal with the fact that someone may not be a great speller or may not use correct grammer....heck I'm one of them, but they should at least stick to the subject at hand and not go out into left field on us. If that is what they want to discuss, they need to go to those sites that are made for that kind of talk. This is NOT one of them. I hope everyone can respect my view on this. Now, I want to get to the item at hand and that is what is happening in the far northwest caribbean. This activity is really starting to crank up and IMO I think it is headed right for the BOC.We know it will lose some convection as it crosses the Yucatan but how much is the key.The flow out of the BOC appears to be headed towards the NW. I know that the circulation that Joe B. was talking about is further south than this actual convection but I'm going to be watching the convection, not the circulation. I feel the nw caribbean cluster could possibly spin upits own circulation after it enters the BOC. At least it is something to keep an eye on. Well, that is about it for now. John C. And Mike C., I know you will do what you think is best for this site and I will be more than happy to abide to any changes you want to make to help keep this site so wonderful.
Thanks,
Shawn S.
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
reread my stuff.. i sound pretty stuck up. opinions aside, that thought bothers me deeply.. so i'll be the one who folds here. stuck up.. that REALLY bothers me. sorry if i hurt anyone's feelings or struck you wrong.. it isnt my place to moderate. anonymous users (i'll register eventually) add flavor to the site, i would hate inadvertently kill that... all for the sake of conformity. no way.
back to the true topic.
normal july night. the pacific is awake, the atlantic sleeping. central america wave looking less formidable, probably not going to propagate any to the gulf.
trough off the mid atlantic was a goofy no chance, and remains so. nothing tropical surely.
itcz creeping north every so slowly, becoming more active.
the dog days drag on, and high season draws closer.
HF (humbled and in proper place) sc 0435z21july
matthew i'm going to lay off and quit being a jerk. write whatever you want. this is my favorite forum site, but it isnt mine.
|
Matthew
Unregistered
|
|
Thank you hf. The western pacific is going crazy tonight with killer hail and tropical weather and the eastern pacific one storm. Atlantic wave to watch near 35 west.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
