Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Wow, Hey Hank, you were just caught up in the moment !! Ok now that we buried the hatchet, Still nothing kickin yet , Like Hank said the high season draws closer, looks as if it maybe later than we think .
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I just found this site not to long ago and I find it to be very intersting . I am looking forward to having a lot of informative ADULT conservation regarding the tropics.Before I decided to join in I read a lot of post and found that when everyone is focused on something happening in the tropics there was really a lot of educational information being passed along.I have been tropical weather watching since ELENA in '85.Looking forward to a lot of great conservation. 
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John C
Unregistered
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This site was intended to be used by ALL people who are interested in the Weather (Hurricanes mainly). Our intention is to keep people informed and to communicate amongst others professionals and non-professionals alike. I think it is good thing that young people have an interest in hurricanes and want to find out more and post their views on what they think might happen. They may not spell correctly and say immature things at times, but we should still allow them to post their views. Only if it gets way out of hand like it is borderline now, will we start to moderate or change things. We do not want to make people register to post because we know some folks do not like to give out that type of information. (Although all we ask is a valid email address and others will not see it). We do want this site to be a pleasant place to visit and informative to the public.
If you click on the “forum” on the left menu you notice we do have other forums to post non-tropical related views on. I would ask you all to use those forums for other subjects like this one I am posting on this Main Forum. I would like you all to take the time to register because it will make your time on the site more enjoyable. Please read the Advantages of Registering it can and will make your time here more enjoyable.
I also want to take the time to again thank you all for your great posts you do a very good job and you are what makes this site what it is.
If you want to reply to this post please go to the Site Suggestions and Questions forum and we will continue with this subject.
Thank You!
Happy Hurricane Hunting!
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Jim Carrier author of "The Ship and the Storm: Hurricane Mitch and the Loss of the Fantome"
is speaking at the Broward County Main Library on July 31 @ 7pm.
It is free of charge.
For reservations call 954.357.7401
Now back to our regularly scheduled discussions....
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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What is that at 97l?
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Believe it or not, the tropical wave near 11 north and 38 west is actually sparking interest in the Navy and at the . It is probably 2-4 days away from any development. However, the upper-level winds become progressively more favorable and the water temps become MUCH warmer near the Windwards (water temps will be key). If this wave holds together, and it likely will, the islands will have to watch this one carefully by mid-week. We all remember Bertha of 1996, but I'm saying this will be like that. A category three is pretty rare in July and Bertha was in early July to boot.
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Matthew
Unregistered
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The number two hurricane of the pacific season forms in the eastern pacific at the 11pm time. 97L have not yet looked at but earlyer looked like some thunderstorms are holding together. Matthew
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Matthew
Unregistered
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Looks very small looking might have a spin. Thunderstorms are now there so all it needs is to move west to warmmer waters. But one more thing to point out it might ran into shear so if it holds together maybe in a day or two.
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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I believe that 97L has a decedent chance to develop. I also agree that the water temps. will be an important factor. If its still together tomorrow then we may just have BERTHA on her way. Speaking of way, any guesses on what direction down the road she might be headed ?
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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My guess now is that it will keep south. There should be a high pressure system over Florida in a few days.
But what do I know.
I do agree with the water temps being important. On the other hand, the Carib has a way of tearing storms apart...at least it did last year.
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Hey, I know what you mean. Just when I think I know, they just seem to go another way.
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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they put an invest on that thing?? apparently a d1.0.. stuck in the . can only see dopey IR, so really seeing whatever got them thinking in terms of invest. few things i can point out about it: most of the globals track this feature as an open wave or small closed low westward... very VERY slowly. like, it doesnt reach the islands until the end of the week on avn/nogaps. it also has a buddy about six or eight degrees behind it that looks.. well, about the same. convection is decent. and finally, easterly shear... the SE atlantic upper ridge is bulging outward now, turning poleward the , which is no longer a raging 40kt beast.. so shear from behind now and then things calm down later. but again 97L is in the .. things down there take forever to focus usually.
one other thing worthy of mention.. the wave/trade wind surge currently in the islands has a mid level vortmax on it around 21/61.. it is jetting due west. subsidence country, but keep an eye out in case thunderstorms go off on it.
slightly more interesting than last night.
oh, one FINAL thing.. look at that super typhoon in the westpac.. it's forecast to still be going wnw fairly far to the north.. that teleconnects to a hefty bermuda ridge in the atlantic, if i'm not mistaken.
HF sc 0419z22july
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Yeah I think the Buddy following 97L looks better than the first this morning. So we have one circulation at 40W and another at about 32W. Like I said, the trailing wave looks better than the front runner at 40. Which is the real 97L? Maybe they're not sure yet. Cheers!! Steve H.
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Maybe there will be some interaction between the 2 waves down the road? I see what you mean #2 does look a bit healthier, has some out flow. The thunderstorm activity that has been associated with #1 looks a little on the puny side this AM. The low is only moving 10-15kts a lot can happen before it gets to the islands.I have a great interest in Tropical Systems, but I am also in the very early learning stages of learning how to read analysis and forcast models. Any suggestions that can helpme out? I hope to learn a lot from this forum. T. Leap
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Matthew
Unregistered
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very nice storm and the eastern pacific so won will it gets its eye so 80 mph winds. As for 97L there looks to be two waves with two lows so we will haved to keep watching.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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It seems as if can't decide which one is 97L. Last night the front wave had more convection than the one behind and this morning it's just the opposite. I don't know what happened here...perhaps the second wave robbed the first one of it's convection...many times this happens in the tropics when two waves (or storms for that matter) get too close together. Shows what one has a stronger lower-level turning field, it's the second one (surprise ). homepage has the satellite image focused on both waves...sounds like they're cheating  . Anyhow, as slow as these things are moving anything could happen and there is likely to be lots of drama the next few days with these two waves that seem to be vying for position of "97L". It's either Bertha, brew, or bust for these guys.
Kevin
Which system should be watched closer?
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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The storm in the Pacific has a very nice satellite imagery. If it keeps strengthing you should see the eye soon. Some times you can't see the eye because of the .
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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I give it a 50/50 chance. I have seen a lot of bust the last couple of seasons. Seems like they just can't quite get their whole act together. But, let's not put our guard down.....BERTHA COULD BE ON HER WAY!!!!!!!!!!! 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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if the two active atlantic waves are going to merge, likely neither would develop in the meantime. these are low tempo features, not going to do anything in a hurry, no surprises. like most are saying today, i'd put more emphasis on the trailer than the leader, way things look just now. globals less interested in either today, so no excitement there.
lot of convection over the southeast today, but nothing of tropical interest. offshore convection looks random.
like to spot everything.. the wave near 67w still has that elongated mid layer vortex near 21n, charging west, amounting to nothing..
interesting cluster NE, yes NE of bermuda. it is over marginal water and hasnt got anything kicking it, so just another little sideways possibility to look for. something the models dont see, at least.
anyhow, thundering here. signing off.
HF aikenSC 2009z22july
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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NAA no Bertha yet ........wont be till August 1st
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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