Jason M
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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FORECAST POSTED: 8/05/02/ 11:30 AM EDT
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:
We are no longer writing discussions on tropical depression Bertha. The center of circulation is moving well inland and the heaviest rains should begin to diminish later today.
Now the attention shifts to the east coast...
Latest Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) numbers is now up to 2.0 for the low off the east coast. In addition, the National Hurricane Center will be sending out a reconnaissance aircraft into the low pressure system tomorrow to look for any signs of development. The low is becoming quite impressive on satellite imagery. In fact, we will likely have our next named storm within 24 hours.
The majority of the forecast models take this low south and then NE out to sea. This track seems fairly reasonable since a high over the east will block the low from moving west. In addition, an upper level troough is moving south and is expected to pull the low northeast. Now there is always the chance that the trough could miss the low but it does seem unlikely at this point. However, the east coast should continue closely monitor this developing low. Bermuda and Newfoundland will also have to watch this low as they may be in the path of this developing storm.
The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet. There is nothing else in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea. There is one weak wave passing near Jamaica but it won't do a whole lot. There is another tropical wave just east of the Leeward Islands that will give them some showers. If we look way out into the eastern Atlantic, you will find a wave with a small flare up of convection. However, this wave is moving into an area of sinking air. Therefore, tropical development is not expected.
The next update will be posted between 5-7PM central time.
FORECASTER: Jason Moreland
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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE National Hurricane Center FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
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http://www.independentwx.com
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992002) ON 20020805 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020805 1200 020806 0000 020806 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.4N 77.7W 31.8N 78.0W 30.6N 78.6W
BAMM 32.4N 77.7W 32.1N 77.5W 31.2N 77.2W
A98E 32.4N 77.7W 32.4N 77.1W 32.1N 76.4W
LBAR 32.4N 77.7W 32.0N 77.5W 31.5N 77.6W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020807 0000 020807 1200 020808 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.0N 79.1W 27.3N 80.0W 24.8N 83.4W
BAMM 30.2N 76.2W 29.6N 74.8W 30.5N 68.9W
A98E 31.5N 74.4W 32.2N 71.3W 34.8N 68.0W
LBAR 31.0N 77.5W 31.1N 77.0W 34.1N 73.6W
SHIP 32KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 32KTS 36KTS 42KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.4N LONCUR = 77.7W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 32.2N LONM12 = 79.1W DIRM12 = 108DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 32.6N LONM24 = 79.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Do feel we will have are next depression late this afternoon or evening. Surface analysis shows pressure 1012 mb but recon may find lower. Satellite loops show system winding up off SC. Models are in good agreement on taking it southeast then northeast as an strong trough for this time of the year plows into eastern seaboard. In fact models bring front through florida? This seems overdone. But trough will be close enough to pull this system northeast. Areas which maybe in the path would be possibly Bermuda and newfoundland down the road. Also believe this may become a tropical storm and " possibly" are first weak hurricane. I hate to go this far out but just my prediction.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Sorry the above post is me Joe.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 05, 2002
satellite and radar imagery and reports from an Air Force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure area off the Carolina coast has become a tropical depression.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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