Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Yes, It does look like unorganized blob N Puerto Rico is being tugged towards north.
Question: how do you recognize a trough split?
Seems its already happened and someone is pointing it out before I recognize it. Thinking it has a lot to do with experience and anticipating it happening. comments anyone
Hurric
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Bertha is getting torn apart,too! Looks like instead of maybe having a busy weekend in the tropics, we may be looking at a dull one. It's amazing how fast the tide can turn!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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They occur at all levels of the atmosphere, but they are most easily viewed with Water Vapor imagry. A trof will come south, the nose elongates, a ridge will usually cut through the trof which then backs off SW then finally west. It's an atmospheric pheonomon that most likely occurs in non El Nino years. Just watch the 'nose' of any trof that comes pretty far south for a day or two and you'll see the split. Some of the energy will take off to the NE, the rest backs SW.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Houstontracker
Unregistered
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a look at the Corpus radar loop seems to show that Bertha has stalled ESE of Corpus Christi.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kcrp.shtml
What do you think ?
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Can someone explain what is happening just off the LA coast?
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caneman
Unregistered
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Shuan, that is nothing. Well. it was acutally a feeder band that broke of Chris and merged with the cold front which produced record rainfall here in Tampa yesterday. We received 2.50 inches in just 55 minutes. Amazing.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Could it be that monster wave around 20W? The loop shows it looking better during the last few hours. Just that it's too close to the .
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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looks like front could leave chris center behind. and i think disturbance n. of p.r. wont get pulled north. waves are starting to get stonger off africa.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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wave n. of p.r.is becoming better organized, not getting picked up. watch it close next few days.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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check out the latest run. It picks up two more systems. It has a low forming in the FL Straits in about 90 hrs. and moving into the central gulf. Also, it picks up what I think is the area North of PR and forms circulation there as well.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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1) Bertha...looks more impressive that it really is...recon had a tough time finding anything really there. Goes to show, that no matter HOW much sat analysis you do, there is NO subsitiute for direct observations. Should be a minimal rainmaker for portions of S TX.
2) Cristobal - not much to say here either...strong pressure rises are signalling it's transition to status...NHC is discontinuing advisories, with good reason.
3) Wave N of PR - I'm really unimpressed with this. Looked pretty good this morning, really gone downhill this afternoon, and looks to be headed off to the north in Cristobal's wake. Not too concerned about this.
4) Seasonal predictions - Not a big believer in them anyway for one simple reason...it doesn't address the REAL question, will there be a US landfall, and where? 14 storms that are fish spinners don't mean anything to the vast majority of residents of the US. But, every time Dr Gray or NOAA adjust the forecast, the media jumps all over it. My station, just prior to my weathercast, announced Dr Gray's revision and tossed to me and said "Jason, looks like we don't have much to worry about, huh?"...took 1 of my 3 minutes shooting THAT down!
Any way, I'll get off my soapbox now.
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Jason,
I highly agree with your comments. The critical question is always will there be a landfall, and if so, where, when, and how intense. I can't tell you much about the overall 1996 hurricane season; I can tell you lots about Fran and having a 4' diameter oak tree in my living room..... 
Always good to see your posts!
Larry
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Just looked at the IR loop in the Caribbean, is there a little spin at the end of the loop or are my eyes deceiving me?
QUESTION?. What are the European models that Joe B. keeps referring to?
He seems to be pretty adamant regarding Florida this weekend. The is also trying to get something cooking off the east coast of fl. T.Leap
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Thanks for the info on Trof Splits Steve.
Looking at what's left of area north of Puerto Rico.
At end of loop appears to be a circulation.
I sill think the next few days are going to be interesting.
Hurric
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Hi Jason:
1) Agree
2) Agree
3) Agree
4) Ah, ya knew it was comin' - Disagree - but only from a scientific point of view. When you go on-air (except for a lost minute to correct the Anchor) you make a dedicated effort to give the best forecast that you possibly can. Every forecast can become a challenge - and its a challenge because this science is so new and so much remains to be learned. Why does one little tropical wave blossom into a Cat IV while another in what seem to be the same conditions does nothing? Obvious answer - the conditions are not the same, but we don't know enough about the atmospherics to always tell the difference. Okay, so what does all of this have to do with the seasonal numbers game? Well, when NOAA or Dr Gray or anyone else develops such a forecast, they do so with the same scientific intensity (or at least I hope that they do) that we do when we ponder the weekend outlook. When the numbers fail, it forces Gray and others to attempt to expand the science and improve the forecast - doesn't always work, but sometimes we get lucky and learn something new. When the weekend outlook fails I probably spend more time in trying to figure out why it didn't pan out than I do in actually making the forecast, but I just chalk that up to trying to learn more so that the forecast will fail less (I keep hoping that someday it might actually happen). But I certainly agree that the numbers mean nothing if you can't improve the forecast enough to tell if or where or when the storm will make landfall.
5) Tiny wave - 10N 46W - could get interesting in a couple of days (here we go again - another busted forecast  )
Cheers,
ED
Ed Dunham
Chief Meteorologist
The Boeing Company
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Wellll.... 
I'm not anti-seasonal forecast per se...I just have very little use for them...and in my "little pond" they are usually more of a hindrance than a help. I have a pretty small chunk of this area that I am responsible for...and when these forecasts are released for public edification and have, realistically, no true value to my forecast process, and actually create false perceptions on my clients (viewers) they can be a significant hindrance. I'm sure they are good for someone, and that they ARE helping advance the science, they don't do me or most operational forecasters a whole lot of good...indeed, they can be harmful in creating a level or hysteria, or a false sense of security. (I'm not using observed or model data that really doesn't relate to my forecast!  )
That is really my problem with these forecasts...not the forecasts themselves, but the interpretation of them, as to what they really mean to Joe Six-pack....which truthfully isn't much.
If Dr. Gray had made a forecast for 4 Hurricanes in 1992, most of the public would have written off the year as a very slow one...and in a Basin-wide sense, that would be correct...but not to residents of S FL or S LA.
However, we agree more than we disagree!
(Feeling better?)
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Jason Kelley
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Good points - and yep, I'm feeling better (can't you tell). A little while back I made the point that you never see seasonal numbers like 4 or 5 or 6, yet those seasons happen just as often as 12 or 13 or 14 - so, in my view, seasonal predictions still have a long way to go. If I worked for an insurance company I'd probably have a different viewpoint 
Cheers,
ED
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Interesting discourse there guys, and I agree. What I don't agree with is Dr. Gray's revised forecast nor NOAA's revisions which came out immediately following Gray's as if somehow his reduction in the number of storms demanded a similar response from the NOAA. If indeed the season's activity is already 1/3 or 3/7 complete, it's going to be "mostly" a pretty boring storm season. 9 named storms? 7-10 named storms? How can this be? Oh yeah - it's the MODERATE EL NINO! Well I don't see it. I check out the SST anomolies every day, and to my untrained eye, there's hardly a menacing El Nino out there to stunt the growth of or shear storms this year.
Anyway it's apparent to me that we're going to have some excitement on this side of the Atlantic no matter how many storms eventually become classified. I'm glad Ed mentioned 10/46, because the first site I went to after I checked on some Saints news, was the Goes 8. There is a tiny bit of convection near 10-50 (wave extending north of 20) which looks quite a bit like the blow-up we saw yesterday north of PR did a few days ago.
This is what I can see on the WV and IR this morning: There is convection @ 21/80 just east of the nose end of the trof south of Cuba which appears to be a tropical wave sandwiched between an ULL centered over Haiti to the east and a splitting trof to the NW. There also appears to be mid-level circulation around 78/24 (northern and central Bahamas) being aided by some upper divergence which seems to be some energy left over from the front and/or Christobal. That environment looks fairly hostile and confused right now, but most of the tropical energy seems to be in a box between 15, 25, 75 and 85. It's anyone's guess as to whether conditions become more favorable in the next 2-4 days down there, but that's where the energy is right now. And if something was to form in our hemisphere in the near-term, it's going to be from some of this energy. Things should be apparent (one way or the other) by Sunday.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I had to go against Dr. Bill Gray and NOAA since I've already gone against Dr. Gary Gray and Joe Bastardi. Just so there is no mistake, here's the recap:
1) I disagreed with Gary Gray's main premise from his forecast that storms this year were going to be mostly passing east of Cape Hatteras. I foresaw a much stronger ridge position with a westerly reach further than he predicted.
2) I disagree with Bastardi's landfall forecast because I, in no way, think the season is over from SE LA to Appalachacola. According to Joe, we've already gotten our tropical storm up here with the landfall of Bertha in St. Tammany Parish, LA. (His forecast was 1 landfall, 1.7 intensity from Boothville to Apalachacola. We've alredy had 1/1 and are only wating for the .7 according to him). What is interesting in his forecast is that he repeatedly refers to the 1985 season. We'll end up somewhere between 3/6 and 4/7 if '85 is a true analog. BTW, I sent Ken Reeves an e-mail for Point Counterpoint that I'm hoping he's going to use and/or call Joe on. It's something that I think Joe needs to address in light of the fact that he's already said he's not revising his forecast in his 8/12 (next Monday) re-issue.
So I guess I'm a lone-wolf in all of this, but I don't care. I said 13/8/3, and I'm sticking to it. The only way we don't approach these types of numbers is if the season suddenly comes to a screetching halt in mid-September.
Thanks for the rant time.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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STill a low level swirl around 30/73 hmmm. Cheers!!
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