Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I think the chances that the could be wrong are always there...predicting a landfalling hurricane is never an exact science and it takes a lot of ingredients to get a good, strong storm together. For instance, if Eduardo was moving north, he would be destroyed by the shear....but he's not. He's moving S/WSW. Anything is possible. The has many weather experts working there; however, just like any other job it is prone to errors because things don't always pan out the way they expect them to..remember Opal? Andrew? There are lots of examples....Mitch is a good one...he just did the "sit and spin" game for I think about 3 years ...LOL....Just keep watching...if you see that the storm is moving a certain way, the will usually wait 2+ advisories before upgrading (unless it's an absolute, like an eye forms) to make sure it wasn't just a hiccup in the storm.
It's frustrating, I know...but, whenever things like this happen, we learn once again that weather is as unpredictable as unpredictable can get. ;-)
Even worse than women. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Hey Colleen, I agree with everything you said except maybe the last sentence... hehe
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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She's actually very together. But, I think when saying to stay tuned until the end of November when the season ends she was talking for the Channel.. and obviously not Dr. Gray.
Bobbi
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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You can go to www.click10.com and in the hurricane section it has a program that runs the hurricane tracks. You can run Cristobal's track and then run Edouard. Or you can run Dianne from 1955.. that one is interesting as well.
Bobbi
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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You know what? I KNEW you would respond to that post....men are so.....
CUTE.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I guess the storm is dead. the TPC has pretty much said that, Joe B has not had a single update since 8:30 am, and ECTWC which had a more aggressive view toward the storm hitting Central Florida has not bothered to update their last post . All three factors mean I can now turn off the computer , rest my weary eyes and go to bed safely in Stuart Fl tonite. This may turn out to be the weakest hurricane season I can remember as there are too many confusing patterns in the atmosphere this year that prohibit anything other than marginal developement .
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Bastardi has had two posts since this morning on the storm. I am not sure where you are looking. 
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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It is so frustrating watching things get so close to popping but never quite getting there. Again, I'm not wishing for a destructive hurricane but as we have read from others there are some of us that would like to see a hurricane sometime this year. We seem to have alot of action around our areas but nothing actually to right home about. Old Eddie is leaving us wonder if he will even be able to hang on and the action in the gulf just doesn't want to spin up. It's kind of weird. 
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Mitch
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Merritt Island, FL
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From Joe Bastardi...
5 PM. REASONABLE PEOPLE CAN DISAGREE.
My take on Edouard. Ride the UKMET through 72. This drops the system south southwest to just east of Melbourne. It also relaxes the shear which is happening. Why do I say that? Because the thunderstorms that got blown off this morning are no longer getting blown away further east, but staying where they are. However as we talked about below, this pulsing really takes a heck of alot of energy and so the system has to start lifting all that air again. Given the fact its over the gulf stream, what should happen tonight is that the next pulse develops over or near the center and stays much closer. We are still looking at the same ideas from this morning. So far Edouard has behaved according to the outline here. I think that it is still over near the east coast of Florida late Thursday. I wish to point out that this no change from what was said earlier, because this is doing what we said earlier as far as movement. So there is no need for me to react and change things. We will then have to examine things after that to determine where it goes later. Interesting observation: The splitting of the trof off the west coast argues for something to try to dig late into he weekend or early next week toward the Appalachians Chance are are the models instead of forcing a trof split with something like that are just sending over the top of the ridge. IN any case, my take is that the system moves to where we said by late Thursday and then takes its time if it wants to get into the gulf. I simply do not see the kind of low level flow to force it so quickly across Florida. So far use of US generated models has done nothing to show skill.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I'm thinking old Ed will take a ride down I4 and dump tons of water.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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He did a video special both on Eduoard and the Gulf.
Maybe you don't have auto refresh every check set?
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Look a cluster of storms just popped north of the center , is'nt this the first time all day that this has happened, most have popped east of center , than got blown to bits, funny joe bast just made a comment about this cluster of storms to pop over the LLC
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Here http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showtalkback.php?Cat=&Board=tb2002&Number=2649&page=0&view=&sb=&o=&fpart=3&vc=1&PHPSESSID=
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Sorry try this http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Hey Steve, What are Bastardi's thoughts. My computer has been down and I can't play his video's right now. Man what a time to have technical difficulties!
I'm beginning to wonder if we are even going to see a hurricane this season. Seems like we can't get the right ingredients in the mixer!!!
  Pinwheel Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Yeah, looks like some MINOR convection trying to build northeast of the center... remains to be seen what the shear is going to do to it... and if this is a trend for continued redevelopment... Old Little Eddie is continuing to aggrevate the stew out of us... that's what makes this all so facinating...
Hey Colleen.... CUTE.... you are just being nice...
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Convection is convection. He is TRYING to hold it together. Whether he will or not, we'll have to see. Shearing should subside as he moves south.
Very nice satellite pic.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Yeah Storm, any convection is better than no convection if this system has any chance to survive.... IF, and thats a BIG IF, it can get some kind of sustained development near its center, then it has a chance to survive until it at least hits the coast... Bigger question, when is it going to start moving again...
Also looking at the latest IR loop still shows some significant shear even south of the system.... maybe it'll relax later tonight or tomorrow...
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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When I said no posts by bastardi since 0830 am at that time I had not seen the 5pm post but I have been unable to find any other posts .
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Looking at the latest IR loop, it does suggest a slight HINT of a possible SW drift again. Might need a couple more frames to verify, but something to watch...Might just be a wobble and not a trend... Convection still getting blasted, what little there is near the center...
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