Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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3:30 pm observations on tropics.. Hanna: Hanna may be getting ready to get its act together as the past few hours it appears the system has stopped and allowing convection to start to close in on it. In addition, if one looks at the large ellipse of dry air around it, one notices it now shifted northwest of the system, as if Hanna is now near of south of the mid level circulation that has been looping her around, not south and southeast. If this speculation is correct then it means the low level center moves in a direction to INTERSECT with the convection that has been following this, not away from it. All this is of course speculation, but Bertha deepened modestly in these waters before landfall, its later in the year a better surface map and upper map, and so I will hold with my landfall pressure at 995 or lower. I will know tonight as we will be able to see if this speculation is correct.
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Expect the 4pm TPC update to read something like this, "Hanna is basically stationary. We've expected this all along as it now beings its much anticipated movement to the NNE. Pressures haven't fallen much this afternoon, but there is a possbility of some strengthening prior to landfall late tonight." - You've heard it all before.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
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where o where is hannah gonna go???
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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She is deepening. The pressure at all bouys both north, east, west. and south of her are down quite a bit. Look for at least 50mph winds at next update.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Could be... convection firing off to the east of the center... this is the first time all day any significant convection has developed near the center... looking at the latest vis loops, does hint to have a NNE wobble to it, maybe..
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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I just saw this on the last visible loop. This movement shouldn't lead anybody to a definite solution, though. Hanna has a track record of wobbling...so could just be a flucuation. If the recent burst of convection near the center sustains itself, intensifies, or expands I'd expect some strengthening tonight. Nothing is in stone yet...we'll see what 5 PM advisory says.
Future Isidore is going through a bit of a dowturn in convection today...just a stage developing systems go through. Expect it to rebound tonight and really crank up tomorrow. Recon may just find a surprise if they go in there tomorrow. Nearly all of the models show at least a respectable TC moving through Caribbean early next week. With such great agreement among the models I really can't argue against this not developing into something significant eventually. It will just take time. My thoughts on this in the storm forum will come soon.
Kevin 
Expericing some heavy rain and gusty winds here from outer bands of "Hanna".
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.html
Probably an interesting evening.
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Pac
Unregistered
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Hey i think the storm is getting better organized to well i want it to get to maybe about 60 mph cuz i live near pensacola an well im getting real excited i wanna see something outta this one
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Frank P
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Reviewing the latest vis loop Hanna has not move much in the past hour... and practically none in the past thirty minutes or so.... convection continues to build off to the east and southeast of center... may take a while to see any increase in wind velocities, if at all.... does look better this afternoon than earlier today... buoy data certainly supports TS status now, didn't this morning..
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Rick in Mobile
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Well, it's time to post my thoughts, I guess. I saw the latest visible satellite shots, and it is definitely building more convection near the center. Since no one has accurately predicted what this girl will do, why not expect the worst?.. If she stays out there long enough, a hurricane, even a moderate cat 2 or worse, could appear. No one has mentioned whether there is a nice ridge above, or good outflow, etc. What do you all think? I have watched enough of these since 79 to know strengthening beyong current guesses is quite possible. As far as movement......I agree that when they stall...it generally means there is a shift in the upper steering currents...which puts anywhere north of here at risk.
I might as well throw out a prediction....I think it will grow to a CAT 2 or better, and of course...hit Mobile....but that's only cause it will make for an exciting evening and morning....oh, and landfall will be tomorrow around 12 midnight....if it stays out longer than that...then it could be a real juicy one.....
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Pac
Unregistered
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Im with u Rick maybe a moderate cat 1 if it sits out there any longer. it is getting better organized as we speak. guess we will wait an see
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>I might as well throw out a prediction....I think it will grow to a CAT 2 or better, and of course...hit Mobile....but that's only cause it will make for an exciting evening and morning....oh, and landfall will be tomorrow around 12 midnight....if it stays out longer than that...then it could be a real juicy one.....
Naturally it's going to hit Mobile  . I missed that eternally optimistic wishcasting for a strong storm. You get a shot at this one, but I don't see Cat-2. Latest WV, IR and VIS all show what appears to be deepening though. The convection is nosing off to the NW while the center remains stationary. Last couple of frames reverse the former, apparent eastward jog and either put it right back where it was or maybe a tad bit north.
Ice up that sixer if you're in AL this weekend.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2002
...HANNA REFUSES TO MOVE...BUT IT WILL...
Gotta love em at the ... sometimes they throw in a little sneaky sense of humor...
Heck, I could have forecasted that... hehe
Tracking these stubborn storms gives me the feeling like I'm just watching my grass grow...
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Frank P
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Nice to hear from you Rick... heck, we all know that anything and everything is possible with these systems... regardless, the port city should be right in the middle of what ever this thing becomes...
My earlier thoughts today was for it to be a strong TS say 60K winds... I think I'll stick with that right now, thought that might be a little high based on todays lack of development, but looks like its trying for that last comeback before it moves inland...
but hey, if I knew where it was going and how strong it would be when it hit, I'd be at the casinos right now winning some big bucks.
BTW, I have a brother in Mobile named Rick and he to is a storm fanatic, like the rest of us...
Edited by Frank P (Fri Sep 13 2002 09:40 PM)
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cooltiger
Unregistered
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I don't see any strenthening. There's just too much dry air over her LLC. Once it moves across the shore it should acelerate some to the Notheast. Hopefully for Ga., Sc. Ala. and the panhandle will get some beneficial rains.
For any substantial strenthening to occur , Hanna needs to get away from the upper level dry air.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Is that possible? It looks like in another 6-8 hours the trough will be gone. Is she too shallow to be picked up?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Ship report at 27N and 88.7W noted pressure at 1001.7 MB, but then again their barometer might not be calibrated either...
13/21 C6FM6 27.0 -88.7 25.0 24.0 180 28 1001.7 10.7 30.0
also looks like some convection trying to build off to the NE of center and all the recent developing convection obsecuring some of the center... pressures continue to fall across the northern gulf coast
http://www.ems.psu.edu/wx/buoydata/curr/gulfofmex.html
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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center now appears to be completely covered. Now lets see how fast she can deepen.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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629
URNT12 KNHC 132101
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/2101Z
B. 27 DEG 46 MIN N
89 DEG 09 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1443 M
D. 25 KT
E. 314 DEG 055 NM
F. 034 DEG 26 KT
G. 315 DEG 084 NM
H. 1003 MB
I. 18 C/ 1578 M
J. 20 C/ 1537 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.1/ 5 NM
P. AF967 0709A HANNA OB 02
MAX FL WIND 26 KT NW QUAD 2036Z.
keep watching to see if convection continues around the center... if trend continues maybe some strengthening will occur later tonight... who knows with this pyscho babe...
WV loop does show quite a bit of dry air off to the northwest of the center as cool poster earlier...
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Are you sure ?? I'm in Mobile looking at blue skies and calm winds at the moment. Do you think Hanna's been Dyn-O-Gelled ??
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