SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Looking at latest view Hanna appears to be getting her act together. A 75mph Hurricane is not out of the question from where I stand.......
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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mbfly, I think what's really happening is all that louisiana hot sauce flushing out of the MS river is stoping Hanna dead in it's track..
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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hanna is done moving west for now im guessing. decided to finally develop some convection near the center too.. obs are showing pressure falls so maybe it will deepen some. i'm wondering if it will want to move as sharply north as the official forecast shows.. still have NE in mind. worst weather out of this one--panhandle, of course.
99L: going too fast, this one is. it cant organize because it is racing. might blow all the way across the caribbean before getting its act together. but i do think it will.
elsewhere: bermuda triangle--area is confused with bursts of convection in places. the old hook of thunderstorms on that wave is indiscernable now, just diffluence convection on the east side of the waning , heading on up the front end of the west atlantic trough. some more back behind the base of the trough, east of the bahamas. a couple of models still showing surface weather in this whole disturbed area, but none are making anything out of it. still it has my eye.
SW gulf--nope, went inland.
HF 2259z13september
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Strengthening beginning??
375
URNT12 KNHC 132251
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/2251Z
B. 27 DEG 46 MIN N
88 DEG 59 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1436 M
D. 50 KT
E. 029 DEG 021 NM
F. 163 DEG 41 KT
G. 043 DEG 108 NM
H. EXTRAP 1001 MB
I. 17 C/ 1517 M
J. 22 C/ 1528 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.1/ 5 NM
P. AF967 0709A HANNA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 52 KT E QUAD 2144Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 850MB.
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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lions said the storms near hanna are high clouds in fact wind at low levels are only 25 kt if that the case will not grow anymore.and from what he said no ones doing anything to get ready but it will be nice at pensacola beach sat i gess what could have been.he is the pro everyone just dont no i gess
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Hey Jason.... can you traslate that into English for us non-meteorologist plain folks ?? I love this site and depend on it a lot, but some of it is over my head! What does this mean ? Winds picking up, pressure dropping ??? Still calm here in Mobile......
Thanks !!
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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oops.... that's "translate" (I guess hooked on phonics didn't work for me !) *sheepish grin*
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Sure..from the guide to decoding recon...
A. Date and time of fix...
B. Latitude of the vortex fix in degrees and minutes...
Longitude of the vortex fix in degrees and minutes...
C. Minimum height of a standard pressure level, given in meters... .
D. Estimate of maximum surface wind observed in knots...
E. Bearing and range from center of the maximum surface wind, given in degrees and nautical miles...
F. Maximum flight level wind near storm center with direction from center given in degrees, and speed in knots...
G. Bearing and range from center of maximum flight level wind, given in degrees and nautical miles from the storm center...
H. Minimum sea level pressure computed from dropsonde or extrapolation from within 1500 feet of the sea surface, given in millibars...
I. Maximum flight level temperature in Celsius / Pressure altitude in meters, OUTSIDE the eye...
J. Maximum flight level temperature in Celsius / Pressure altitude in meters, INSIDE the eye...
K. Dewpoint temperature in Celsius / Sea surface temperature in Celsius inside the eye...
L. Eye character...brief verbal description such as poorly defined, closed wall, open to NW, etc.
M. Eye shape orientation and diameter...Eye shapes are codes as follows: C-circular; CO-concentric; E-elliptical. Orientation of major axis of ellipse is transmitted in tens of degrees, and all diameters are transmitted in nautical miles.
N. Confirmation of lat/long/time fix with format as in A and B above.
O. Fix determined by / fix level...There are five means of determining fixes and nine means of indicating fix level. The fix determination will be a series of one to five numbers depending on how many items were used to determine the position of the storm center. The coding is as follows: 1-Penetration, 2-Radar, 3-Wind, 4-Pressure, 5-Temperature. The fix level will be either one or two numbers, depending on whether or not the surface and flight level centers were the same. The surface center will be given if visible, both the surface and flight level centers will be indicated only when they're the same. The coding is as follows: 0-surface, 1-1500 ft, 8-850 mb, 7-700 mb, 5-500 mb, 4-400 mb, 3-300 mb, 2-200 mb, 9-Other.
P. Navigation fix accuracy in nm / Meteorological accuracy in nm...
Q. Remarks Section.
Sorry for the length...
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I think everyone is in a wait & see mode with this lady!!!!
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HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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for once the center isnt exposed. convection going off right next to the center.. the snowball is rolling. eastward drift is also making landfall unlikely west of mobile, making the western panhandle the primary target. maybe even as far over as bay county. the chance this will cross the coast as a weak hurricane has also become less off the wall.. could very well be a minimal hurricane crossing the coast if it keeps lingering offshore and develops a constant tonight..
perhaps i should drive over there and catch the action.. might be worth it.
HF 0031z14september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hey jason do you think yhis eastward drift is only temp.?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Come on down! I'll be here!
LOL...
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Jason Kelley
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I'd say so, but if the more northward track doesn't begin pretty soon I'm gonna get nervous...
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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jason I/R IS OLD IFOUND A VIS JUST BEFORE DARK IT HAD GOT REAL BIG REAL FAST HAVE YOU SEEN THIS
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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They are mentioning an east drift...as well, the convection is over the top of the LLC..and appears to be blossoming. The only drawback is looking at the water vapor loops....it shows too much dryness on the west side...but it looks to me as though that is lessening now. No one should argue the fact that if Hanna sits there long enough...she will grow.
better go get some beer
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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HANNA REALY LOOKS STRONG ON SAT NOW WHAT DO YOU SEE JASON
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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I see what you guys are saying about the center being under the convection and have seen this in the loops, does this mean the center is relocating, or could it be? 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Typically, this would indicate better organization. Better organization means stronger system. This year, of course, most storms are not typical. 
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I don't think we will see a center relocation because she has such a well defined LLC...but that convective burst has really helped out her organization...
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Do u all out there think the will up the winds the next advisory. I'm really hoping for a strong tropical storm or min. Huricane just cuz i never been in a storm so this is my first one so i want to be able to remember it somehow. so what do u all think
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