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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Speaking of wishcasting
      #4538 - Sat Sep 21 2002 12:49 AM

Throw my ashes in the Eyewall of a Cat 5 when I pass on

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Jeanine
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.03N 80.19W
Re:Wishcasting etc.
      #4539 - Sat Sep 21 2002 12:49 AM

Sorry if I ticked anyone off! I just had to vent, It was my turn, Anyway Ricreig didn't aim anything at you, Bill D hello, and Bruce, no, you can not have one of my stars . Have a good evening everyone, no hard feelings Steve.
Jeanine


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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Speaking of wishcasting
      #4540 - Sat Sep 21 2002 12:59 AM

Look at the radar. Now that it has cleared land, it is moving, west, just like the NHC said it would. But I agree, time for some sleep!

Bill


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
I'm sitting here thinking, 'damn, this is a pretty serious situation.'
      #4541 - Sat Sep 21 2002 01:48 AM

It's not every year we're faced with a life and death storm. Thinking back on some of the more dubious Gulf Storms from my lifetime - Gibert, Camile, Betsy (though I was a baby), Allen, Andrew - there were some bad boys. Isidore looks like he's going to be one too.

I went and read Joe B's midnight tropical post. You don't hear him talking possible Cat 4 that often. He's hinting at another serious threat with 37W. NHC's experimental wind speed product is close to 135mph at 72 hours. Somebody's gonna pay.

I'm with the TS/Cat 1 maybe 2 crowd in that a minor inconvenience and a few free days off of work drinking in the easy chair and playing with my kids is a small price to pay to witness the most awesome power nature has to offer. But a Cat 3 brings up a lot of new issues. Are all the supplies in order? Do you evacuate, and if so, what will you come back to? How lucky do you feel? It's a tradition in the hurricane prone lands to mark time with a major storm. If your area experiences a 3, 4 or 5, it will be a common experience you will share with thousands of other peope and will be an event that remains etched upon you for the rest of your life. Good luck to all of us.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
Re: Speaking of wishcasting
      #4542 - Sat Sep 21 2002 01:51 AM

Ah hahahahaha..... You need to be upgraded to "Is the weather" asap...too funny... Kimster


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Speaking of wishcasting
      #4543 - Sat Sep 21 2002 01:52 AM

http://www.hurricanealley.net/09Ltrpmdl.html

Btw, this is the latest model graphic I could find.

Me.

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
Re:Wishcasting etc.
      #4544 - Sat Sep 21 2002 01:57 AM

Summarizes my thoughts exactly !

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
'nuther lateniter
      #4545 - Sat Sep 21 2002 02:20 AM

got a situation here.. and our number of cases seems to be multiplying. i'll elaborate.
isidore is still moving slowly wnw.. maybe picked up a little speed in the last few radar frames from the much abused havana radar (hey, im not complaining, they arent being selfish about it.. like, oh, say certain government agencies are with releasing forecast products to the general populace.. but i digress). anyhow been noticing that aside from ukmet the globals dont want a mexican landfall.. even the ones that take it to the BOC do an Opal with isidore.. it trims along the yucatan, chills in the bowl, and then comes north at the end of the week. that goes with the idea that one of these shortwaves, or maybe a larger oscillation with the longwave trough replacing itself.. along with a rebuilt ridge in the western atlantic.. will turn isidore up north and then northeast. louisiana has some model crosshairs on it now.. but i still think east of there.
one more thing on isidore.. its crossing of cuba/slow speed have weakened the core.. recon is going to find a weaker system when it arrives. pressure maybe up to 975, winds down in the 80s. but, should restructure its core (lose the double eyewall feature it's been toying with) and be a major hurricane by monday.
rest of the basin: tropical storm kyle will be christened at the 5am advisory. deep convection is there, organization is there. this will be a central atlantic meanderer.. maybe wander sw early next week but probably not even bother bermuda. only interest is how strong it gets, whether it helps pump the ridge in the w atlantic back up faster..
92L.. surprised at how well it's done so far. at first i thought that the deep westerlies in the atlantic were going to kill these waves.. but those are pulling north as the pattern progresses and narrow low latitude ridging is support this wave and the one further east. both have associated low pressure... 92L is particularly troublesome. it will probably develop between 45 and 50w, and enter the caribbean between 14 and 16n late monday or early tuesday.. ships wants it to be a hurricane by then. i dont think so, but think the pattern progression will keep ridging with this system until it probably runs into a TUTT feature that should be organizing as the western atlantic ridge shifts back south to the east of florida. also dont think this will be enough to turn it up.. so this should be lili, and it should keep us busy at least until the end of the month. the further east wave may also try to develop.. but will probably get turned up pretty far to the east.
other areas.. and this should get weird. there is the bastardi pinwheel.. which may or may not be an organized system.. but will probably at least make a run at developing.. and run up from hatteras to cape cod. then there's the avn storm forming near cuba and the bahamas early next week.. that i have a strange and probably goofy theory for. remember that energy that split off the lower end of that trough bypassing isidore earlier.. that had all the convection in the west gulf earlier? also, 98e in that moved into mexico today.. this is the energy that get twirled around by the upper low west of isidore.. entrained in the circulation.. and finally added to the energy left behind the as the upper low east of florida decays and is replaced by the ridge. i know this theory sounds goofy.. but remember keith in 2000.. how that disturbance ran right up behind it, got pushed north into florida, and developed into leslie? thats sort of how the thinking goes.. a bunch of free, non-entrained energy gets focused behind isidore and makes that strange avn siamese twin to isidore.. truly nuts and surely its wrong.. but thats what popped into my head.
aite, why all the activity, you wonder. look at the MJO indexer.. it has progressed eastward and now the atlantic is juiced.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.html
pair that with nao negative and the fact that it's september.. and thats how we are having all of these systems try to go.
a'ite, zillionth huge post by me. time to check the 2am adv..
HF 0613z21september


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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
Re: 'nuther lateniter
      #4546 - Sat Sep 21 2002 02:46 AM

Hank,

I truly enjoy reading each of your posts. From watching hurricane developments over the past 9 years, I have learned one lesson which is you just never know what will happen. I extremly enjoy, and spend hours a day, collecting and analyzing numerous data to try and figure out what will most likely happen. When I think I have a good idea, I often times find mysef reanalyzing the following day for a new conclusion. Since 3:15 UTC, the satellites are not updating. Frustrating. Keep up the great posts!


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Kimmie at home
Unregistered




Re: 'nuther lateniter
      #4547 - Sat Sep 21 2002 03:09 AM

Steve, I live up the road from you! Hammond. Saw some neighbors stocking up on hurricane supplies tonite. Looks as though people are beginning to look at this a little closer. My family is ready, but if anything larger than a Cat 1 comes anywhere near this area.....see ya!

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Subtropical Depression 12 and Isidore
      #4548 - Sat Sep 21 2002 03:52 AM

izzy looks mean now it looks like it is going fast but we missed a few frames the core on the last frame looks th best it has

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
My own personal cat 5
      #4549 - Sat Sep 21 2002 04:43 AM

Well as I posted earlier a large tornado ripped through my state this evening making a nice 180 mile path of destruction. My city was particularly hard hit. I was able to see a very large debris cloud accompanied by the sound of a jet engine as the tornado went south of my home. I was able to get out this evening and survey the destruction to find it starts about 2 blocks from my home. The path of destruction in my town looks to be about a mile wide. Good news for me is none of my family was injured or suffered any more than very minor damage. Somehow nobody was killed or seriously injured by this thing either. For photos of my city you can go to www.indystar.com or www.wrtv.com. My power is still out and I'm posting this from work. Thank you all for your thoughts.

Derek


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Izzy headed south of due west?
      #4550 - Sat Sep 21 2002 05:54 AM

well the latest available IR Sat loops seem to indicate that izzy may be heading just south of due west. This may be in part, due to the concentric eyewalls mentioned in NHC's latest discussion. If the inner eyewall has collapsed then the outer eye wall would be contracting, and may be what has caused the slight WSW jog. Will be interesting to see if this motion keeps up. If it does the centre will get perilously close to the Yucatan coast.

As for STS Kyle, well it is in great environment, and looks set to strengthen. It is, however, no immediate threat.

Then of course, there is 92L. A good looking system that will likely be the next named storm, and headed for the islands, so it needs watching.

BTW, i have given up on my Isidore landfall near Mobile, at least for the time being

Rich B

StormWarn2000

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Izzy headed south of due west?
      #4551 - Sat Sep 21 2002 07:26 AM

Looks like Izzy might take a vacation to Cancun before he comes on home here on the Gulf Coast. How much could he strengthen after a Yuc landfall on his way north ? Would he restrengthen to cat 3 ?

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Izzy headed south of due west?
      #4552 - Sat Sep 21 2002 08:37 AM

Good morning,
Isidore shouldn't really make a Yucatan Peninsula landfall. I believe the eye should stay north of it, but the southern quad will raise hell along the northern Yucatan Coast. In the even a Yucatan landfall does occur (not likely), Isidore would re-itensify anyways. Yucatan Peninsula is a very flat piece of land, most storms that do go across usually make it.

Thoughts on Isidore: WNW and eventually W through 36 hours, perhaps a slight WSW movement after that. From 48-72 hours I expect a very slow W and WNW movement to continue. After that, late on Monday or Tuesday the next longwave/trough should grab Isidore and send him N and NE. I'm still sticking with a landfall anywhere from Pensacola to Cedar Key. Isidore will probably remain a major hurricane the whole time.

Other tropical stuff: Subtrop. storm Kyle looks okay this morning. NHC says SW turn eventually, but Kyle is so far out another trough is bound to pick him up and shove him NE.

92L looks very concentrated this morning...and I expect a depression today or tomorrow. This one should continue W and WNW through 72 hours. I don't think this will be a hurricane until it is near the islands, after that intensification could be much more explosive. There is a possibility of a SE US/Bahamas threat in 7-8 days...but we have to deal with Isidore first.

Wave E and SE of Bahamas need convective persistence. We'll leave it at that. Still could develop down the line, but needs to put on an impressive show at night, not just during the day.

Eastern Atlantic wave flaring up this morning, but low pressure associated with it looks like it is pretty far north 12-13 N. If the system in front develops, this one will go fishing. Always happens that way.

That's how the basin looks today...yeah, looks like a real hellbender. It appears we are going to have numerous tropical problems next week....Isidore possibly bearing down big time on NE GOMEX...hurricane threat in the islands...and monitoring the other areas closely.

Strange the way this season and last didn't need to have an active August and early September to be bad seasons. I think we are in a pattern shift that favors more late season activity...and the steering patterns are letting the Atlantic stuff get further west. The Caribbean stuff is also getting further north now....Keith was thought to be a GOMEX threat but never was, Michelle made an honest effort to scare S. Florida, and Isidore may just be the real thing.

I wonder what this season would be like with a La Nina...talk about bombardment. Of course, if the Atlantic is shifting into a new pattern, all we will have to do is wait for another La Nina to come. The results won't pretty when we do get one.

Enough babbling for now.

Kevin


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Izzy headed south of due west?
      #4553 - Sat Sep 21 2002 08:48 AM

The 73 hour forecast puts Izzy just west of the NW tip of the Yucatan in 72 hours. For those who believe that Florida is out of the woods remember that the remains of Mitch were in that exact location and hit south Florida as a moderate TS. No one on the gulf coast is out of the woods yet on this one.

On a side note, wow, what a tropical Atlantic to wake up to this morning! There are no less than 4 other potential systems to watch other than Izzy. Could we really make it to the "O" storm this season after such a slow start? Amazing.


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Izzy headed south of due west?
      #4554 - Sat Sep 21 2002 08:49 AM

Oh geez, 72 hour, not 73. Duh!

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Izzy headed south of due west?
      #4555 - Sat Sep 21 2002 08:54 AM

The TWC said this AM that more of the models are starting to agree that Isidore may be picked up by a trough next week and then start to head North any where from Texas to the Fl panhandle. If that does happen what position in the Gulf will Isidore need to be located in order to make certain northern landfalls? At this point the TWC did not mention NNE only N. But I guess it has to go a little N. first before it goes NE. There is also a possibility that it will not get picked up, but as I said earlier the path is starting to become a little more clearer. I would appreciate any one's comments regarding this movement and possibility of a Northern or NE landfall.
Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Izzy headed south of due west?
      #4556 - Sat Sep 21 2002 09:07 AM

Toni,
Isidore should move north at first and then NE. The intensity of this storm combined with the trough should be able to ship this thing NE. I'll say it again, Florida is not out of the woods.

Kevin


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Izzy headed south of due west?
      #4557 - Sat Sep 21 2002 09:09 AM

The St. Petersburg news paper says this morning that the threat to Florida continues to diminish.
Can anyone tell me why garbage like this makes head line news. In my opinion it is just way to early to start making comments like that. I wonder how many people will take that statement to the bank and not keep as close tabs on the storm now. I'm sorry for my out burst here but it's comments like this that can really make me angry. If it comes to pass and Isidore keeps heading away from Fl than fine but I also think that it is as much of a mistake to give people a false sense of security as it is to get them all hyped up. Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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