Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
I earlier thought perhaps this system was dying off, but the more recent visible loops show that after the centre initially became elongated, it has once again 'closed' more. The cloud bands associated with the low also appear a little tighter, and there is some deeper convection now beginning to fire up nearer the centre. Possibly this is as a result of the slightly warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. A slow westerly or west-northwesterly motion being expected means those of you in the Northeast Florida region should really watch this closely. There is still a window of oppurtunity for some additional development.
Rich
StormWarn2000
--------------------
Rich B
SkyWarn UK
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
>>Those storms that are currently headed south from Texas into the GOM? Is there any possiblity that once they hit the open waters that they could become something? Or just more bad weather for the evil oil rigs? I really am interested as there seems to be a lot of convection headed out into the Gulf
1) Check out the SC/NC radar loops. If nothing else, the coastal areas and possibly the low country are getting some much needed rainfall.
2) As to the complex heading down south of Houston, Dr. Joe Sobol on Accuweather point/counterpoint today noted that something was going to cut off down in the Gulf. I think, if nothing else, we're seeing the beginnings of the switch in direction from a blazing flow out of the west to a more seasonal flow out of the east, southeast and south. Bastardi said about a week ago that in the 10-15 day period, there was the potential for tropical mischief further west than 90L or 91L could have been.
So it's up in the air. I've seen it happen before, but ususally that stuff just falls apart. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, tonight's models do with that complex. There has been a hint on some of them that the western gulf would be an area of weak low pressure in the coming days (I think it was the AVN and Canadian, but I can't exactly remember).
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Let me qualify Point #2. That doesn't mean that in any way, shape or form the flow is out of the east. I'm just saying that the westerly flow has to break down and that takes time. Upper lows, fronts, waves, et al play a part in setting up the deep tropical flow for the summer and early fall.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
jth
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 275
|
|
looks like there might be something trying to form just off the Central American Coast. A sign of things to come??? Let's hope not. If the east pac is busy, the Atlantic Basin will be very slow.
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Just a comment...Earl in the late 90's (forget the year off the top of my head) formed from an MCC that travelled down that same area and set up off shore for a few days....it can happen, especially in the early season.
Certainly not a prediction that it WILL happen, but it does bear watching (I really don't think it will).
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/mm5-45tc2.cgi?time=2002052900-MANUAL1&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=072hr
The always agressive -45 in 72 hours.  btw, it's the only model doing anything like that.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
|
|
Too funny Steve, could happen though ..... Hmmm ..... what does Frank say about models ?? ..  hehehehe C-YA !!
--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
|
ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
Hey,Steve
Do you think there is any kind of chance of the upper low that is suppose to drag across our area tomorrow actually getting into the gulf and developing? I know that if it did it would take quite a while to do so. With it being an upper low and the SST's not being all that warm right in that area I'm not sure it could pull it off.Any ideas on it? 
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Seems like a lot of energy went through there today. We got some pretty heavy thunderstorms in narrow bands here today. If you used some imagination on the visible sat. just after 12, you could trace some of our rain to spiraling around an upper trof and into the SW Atlantic.
We got hit with a TS or Cat-1 in the 80's (was either Bob or Florence) that formed when a complex moved through here, went into the Gulf, then came back northward over land. It seems to me that the shear in the western gulf would be prohibitive, but I haven't looked at any shear models since last night, so that might change or be breaking down with a complex in the area, especially if the upper low has any strength to it. If nothing else, it will slow some of that upper shear out of the west if it sits there for a while, making conditions a little more favorable for the near-term.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
I was watching the Tropical Update at 6:50 CDT with Paul Goodblowe. Paul was talking about Alma and how it does not pose a threat for rain to the Baja or the SW US. All 4 "video" Accuweather guys (Ken, Bernie, Dr. Joe, and Joe B) have been saying this thing would curve for the last several days. Even the latest guidance from the puts the storm on a NNE course through tomorrow and heading off to the NE within the forecast period. It's almost like these guys don't even forecast anymore but go off of models and read cue/queue cards. I'm not going to dis John Hope, but seems to be on the decline if not in a tailspin.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
the landfall of invest 91L on the coast of northeast florida is now imminent, all precautions to protect life and property should be completed immediately. low lying sandcastles in putnam, flagler, and volusia counties are under voluntary evacuation. beaufort force 3 winds and tidal surges of up to 1 1/4" are expected at the coast, and as this system is slow moving the threat of up to 1/10 and inch of rain exists in the path of 91L.
well, better luck when/if it crosses into the gulf. surface obs still suggest a small, weak, closed low.. but as usual the convection is happening somewhere else. then again, once it moves over land it should start to intensify rapidly. that would be a trip, wouldnt it?
yeah folks (especially those of you who live on the gulf west of florida, you know who you are), i too have noticed the models carrying that mcc down off tx/la. mccs are great, little already spinning ready-made convection packages that only need to hear the gospel of warm ocean water to convert from their wicked, ways. that happens almost every year, and every so often one will sit and stew long enough to start deepening.. but that usually only happens when the atmosphere is gentle and the shear monster is elsewhere... late summer like. considering what time of year it is i'd say chances are pretty slim, but of course any time 'chances' exist there will be mention of it here at .
peace to all, take it easy
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
There seem to be upper lows and a surface low or two spinning all over the place. Frank P is under a feed train of a low apparently centered over SE Arkansas for the last couple of hours; convection is building up off the GA coast; there is a blowup off the SE FL coast; looks like a subtropical low 200 miles east of the NC coast; there's a big blob of convection NE of Hispanola; there's an upper low rotating down through TX; and the action just off the Nicaraguan Coast came back to life last night.
While maybe one of these systems goes partially tropical (if at all), we haven't seen this much action in a long, long time.
Steve
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Hey Rad, you know my opinion of models... my real problem is that my wife won't let me have any... hehe
Steve ... we got pounded this morning with some deep convection... RAIN... wonderful rain...
Pressure this morning on the Stennis Space Center is low at 1007.3 mb Radar loops certainly suggest some type of broad rotation to the convection, although not sure at what levels.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
We were at 29.82 last night during the 10 o'clock news. I'm late for work - I better get rolling.
Steve
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Got a chance to view the IR loop. Definite low pressure system located with center in extreme north central LA, near Ark border... doesn't appear to be moving much but certainly firing off some much needed convection off the MS/AL/FL coast areas.
Also very interesting little hybrid type system developing rapidly this morning around 33.5N and 70.5W. Its signature looks pretty good and be interesting to see what, if anything, this system might do.
Much more impressive than the system off the west coast of FL we've been tracking the past two days...
|
HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
|
|
I read an article in the USA TODAY that said Dr. Grey is expected to lower his April forecast due to lower then expected SST in the Atlantic. Sorry for the bad news but remember it only takes one.
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Last night we got some pretty nasty weather here in Central Florida...it seemed to just be concentrated in one area...OURS.  About 7:00pm we could hear the rumblings of thunder and then about 7:30 or so, it started to really rock and roll and let loose. It was wicked! It didn't stop until about midnight or so, and I think they said we got 3" of rain. The Weather Channel even mentioned us at 10:50pm! Woohoo! Lakeland needs the publicity...and our pressure was at 29.84. Also mentioned this morning that we could be subjected to more of the nice rainy weather this afternoon. Although, if it doesn't clear up, I don't see much chance of the heating of the atmosphere like it did yesterday. Then again, what do I know? 
Ok. Back to loop-de-looing. 
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 109
|
|
We got some rain up here in JAX last night but I would say that it was more on the 1/4 inch level. As far as Dr. Gray and his predictions go, no one can predict mother nature, if they are going to come they will.
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Given the fact that yesterday we only had a 30% chance of rain, I take forecasts with a grain of salt. You're right, no one can predict what Mother Nature is gonna dole out and when, so we better not get to confident and rely on past years as examples.
Who thought 9/11 would ever happen? No one in their wildest dreams ever thought that kind of thing could happen here. Well, the same goes for everything else. You just never know what's gonna happen next.
Speaking of which, the weather has cleared up and it's a nice juicy 84 here already.
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
i wouldnt be surprised if those invests on the old system 90L started again today, since just southeast of jamaica theres that old familiar turning, but now with deep convection firing on its immediate southeast semicircle (and less indication of tremendous shear).
91L did what i should have expected, seeing as it wants to make tropical cyclone credentials. at just the last moment the small and ill defined low suddenly developed a considerable amount of convection and banked right, now seeming to drift north along the upper florida coast. its headed for wilmington, just like all proper atlantic hurricanes, of course.
well back in the realm of reality i think it's responding to the pressure falls to the northeast. that system, visible last evening but considerably stronger today, is rocking the boat as far as low level steering goes.. maybe it will gobble up 91L. very cool waters beneath it though, low to mid 70s. i very much doubt it will come to anything.
out west the mcc hasnt worked its mid level low offshore yet. maybe later today.
summary IMO the likely story today is southeast of jamaica.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
