MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just wanted to make folks aware of Ed Dunham's post over in the Storm Forum. Click here to get to it
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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92L will be upgraded to a depression at 5pm. monterey has changed the name, and this always precedes the upgrade. so, three active systems.
HF 1925z21september
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Ok, Now Im getting nervous.
Southern
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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I do believe we will have A TD 13 at five. And the forecast is to be at 91 kts and well under 20N 60W.
[url=http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02092119]
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Recon reports pressure down to 946 MB. they also said:
MAX FL WIND 109 KT SE QUAD 1743Z. MAX FL TEMP 21C 360/09. EYE WALL 60% CLOSED AND CONTRACTING, STILL OPEN TO THE WEST.
Izzy seems to be taking a deep breath.......
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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We could easily be dealing with two landfalling hurricanes in the US within the next 7-10 days. 92L has every opportunity to get into the northern carribbean and develop from there. Don't see really quick intensification for at least 72H. Don't think it gets nearly as far W as izzy. looks like a SE bahamas hispanola deal and then wishcasters from Miami to Virginia Beach take over and duke it out and chew up bandwidth. Maybe i will have fire the webcam back up that I have going on this site.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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21/1745 UTC 21.9N 86.1W 6.0/6.0 ISIDORE
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/BD/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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What Gives? The Weather channel just showed a projected path due west. Are the models all in agreement with this now. I had the volume turned down and if I were a casual watcher I would assume that no one in the US is at risk of a hurricane.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200210.html
That's the 5 track. That's a more nervous track IMHO. I'm waiting for the 5 discussion to come out but I gotta bring the kids to church.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT10/AL1002I.GIF
147mph @ 72 hours? Add that track to the Jaws theme song in the back of your head - da-na. da-na. da-na. da-na...
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Isidore growing rapidly. Don't agree with current movement west at 3 believe its more NW at 3. TD#13 forms. Getting active!
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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I don't believe the is going to change their forecast track until they see Izzy do something more definite. On the other hand, he's moved .1 to the west in 6 hours, and that does'nt change their 11:00 am forecast? They'll just stick with they said earlier until proven wrong, because not only did he not go west, he didn't go north either. I just hope they don't lull someone in the eastern GOM to sleep, and create a bigger problem then they already have.
What I do see is the Gators 21, Tenn. 0. HA! But that game ain't over either..............
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Just got in from working on my house, been remodeling the outside since July.... figures... couple sections only had plywood and house wrap on it... not any more... finished up those sides and were ready to roll now...
just wondering as I have not had time to do any analysis but as I watched the TU just a few minutes I could have sworn that I saw a "HINT" of a NW drift on the vis loop.... any one else catch it or am I imaging things?
be that as it may, I have completed all my basic hurricane preps... batteries, water, radios, food.. I keep a stock of plywood on hand all the time.... my garage is like a mini Home Depot...... bought me a battery operated TV too...
Cat 4 is a serious event... hopefully some kind of atmospheric event will come up to preclude that from happening... I sure in hell hope so
good post on preps... if your home is situated where you don't have a lot of shelter from the wind I highly recommend plywooding all windows and doors that are not steel or solid wood type... as stated earlier, you lose a window in a Cat 4 you lose your house.... My house has been through em all, From Camille to Elena to Georges... still standing, still plywooding, and still praying for this thing not to come here...
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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As I was writing my last post Joe also mention the NW drift in his post.. that makes two of us that saw it...
hmmmmmmm
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Yep. Me three.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Using the GOES vis latitude and longitude plotter I have Izzy estimated to be located at 22.1 and 86.3... best guess I might add but definitely a wobble to the NW...
up .2 north and over .1 west since last advisory, if my estimates are correct....
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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studing the vis loop for the past 10 minutes confirms what I though I saw earlier... Izzy has been wobbling to the NW... and it might just be a slight deviation from the forecasted track and he'll get back on that west course... but then again maybe not...
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Jog to the NW continued in the 21:15 UTC visible photo.
Recon reports pressure of 945 MB, another drop of one since the 5:00 pm update. Eyewall is 50% open, mostly to the west, prob. reforming. Think jog north is eyewall reforming, or may this Cat4 storm is making his own way with a little push from mid to upper low over Bay of Campeche. I see many hurricane models going up in flames if this continues.. 
Joe in Jax
Fla 24 Tenn 7
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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I agree Joe... last vis loop still shows the northerly component albeit a little more to the wnw in the latest frame... the overall system could be wobbling off somewhere between NW and WNW... gotta keep watching to see if this is a trend or just a slight deviation and it'll get back on the west track...
I have the estimate center based on GOES lat/long finder at approximately 22.16N and 86.40W
Maybe it is the center reforming, regardless it's interesting to watch on the loop... system so powerful right now it will probably will go where it feels like
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Rick
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
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Am I seeing things ... or does the show something spawning in the Bahamas at T60?
BTW, I guess I'll go on record with my thoughts of a big bend hit as a cat3, maybe cat2. Sorry, I don't have time to get into the whys and wherefores.
Justin is absolutely correct. You have to protect the entire envelope of the house. Also make sure the gable ends are reinforced or trusses fall like dominoes. I put so much cross-bracing up there it, if it ever came off, it would have pulled the house up outta the ground.
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