Frank P
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During the past 45 minutes I estimate that Izzy has gone .09N and .09W.... I think it is still jogging to the wnw or nw for the past hour or so... again based on my non scientific method
Kimster here's the link... sorry it took so long as my computer locked up and I had to reboot
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8conusir.html
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joepub1
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Hey guys(and gals). Came back from getting my wife from work and looked at infrared loop. Think there still is some nw jogs going on. I kind of brought this up on the last page, but my thoughts are we've gone almost nine hours with either no movement or a very slow NW jog. This should be enough to throw out some of the stranger model aspects IMHO, like Izzy being somewhere way down in the Bay of Camp. in 72hrs. But I'm willing to bet won't budge, and at 11 we'll get something that is a rehash of the 11:00 am forecast. Even the 18Z gives me problems because they started Izzy in the right place, but going the wrong direction. 265, or just south of west? Anybody seen him going south of west today? Sorry, it's just something that gets on my nerves when peoples lives are at stake. When you feed a model garbage, it's going to give you garbage in return.
Of course, I think Izzy was just trying to get a better look at the GATORS STOMPING TENNESSE 30-13! He's just adjusting his rabbit ears, IMHO. 
Joe in JAX
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Kimster
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Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Thanks Frank...even got it to zoom for me!
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Londovir
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Excellent link, Frank! Lets you really get zoomed in and see the eye area nicely. Looks like the western tip of Cuba is in for some really nasty rain and weather for the next few hours as that trailing arm of Izzy whips into it from the south.
Looking at the Cancun radar it looks like the worst of the close-core rains are skimming just off shore. Guess that's good for the poor folks living up on the peninsula --- bad for everyone else in terms of it not weakening much since it looks like the core is going to stay off land.
Jay
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Londovir
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Frank P
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anytime K
Bama opening up a can of whoop ass on my Golden Eagles... Jason and Southern4sure should be enjoying this .... cause I sure in the heck am not
Izzy not going anywhere very fast is he???
Got to admit the color IR on this system is just absolutely beautiful .... hope I can continue to view it from a safe distance...
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joepub1
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Very nice link. Boy, he's pushing that upper low to his SW away like a rotten stepchild, much like the GATORS DID TO TENNESSE!
But very nice link, indeed.
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Frank P
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Just got thru reviewing the Cuba sat loop. System has over the past 5 hours definitely wobbled on a definite NW course...
the link was provided up above in an earlier post but here's the link, it's slow but worth the view...
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/newreply.php?Cat=&Board=tb2002&Number=4672&page=0&view=collapsed&what=showflat&sb=5&o=&fpart=1&vc=1
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Steve
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quasi-stationary. It appears to me that the eye is almost rotating around the which appears to be slightly elongated. As it comes around, sometimes it's going north, sometimes south west, sometimes west. Imagine you're drawing a series of connected, lowercase, script e's but you don't loop the 'e' - almost the shape of a wave you might have drawn in a beach picture in kindergarden - but not exactly. Overally, the eye looks to miss the YP as it is a bit north of there. If you plot the eye short term (last few hours), you'd come up roughly northwest, yet the storm itself seems to be crawling west. The slow movement almost guarantees a NC-NE Gulf landfall if it gets grabbed by a trof. Interestingly, the European model for the severalth run in a row puts landfall around Morgan City, LA. 2 days later, it's up in northern Ohio. That's a rocket shot if ever I saw one. I'm not sure which model will perform best when the researchers go back and look at 'em, but if the Euro is right, there's going to be a lot of dead alligators on the coast!
Here's a link to the latest I could find:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/deterministic/world/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!12!pop!od!oper!public_plots!latest!/
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
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http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002092118-isidore10l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
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Last IR pix showed a wobble west.... .04W degrees and no movement north... Steve you might be right but add it all up from the past 90 minutes the system went from 22.21N to 22.3N (.09N) and from 86.47W to 86.60W (.13W)
All based on guestimates but still drifting somewhere between WNW and NW... NOT WEST..
Next IR pix should be interesting... wobble more to the NW should occur if this is a true trend...
Wobbles are part of the phenomon of a storm and you would expect it to go north then west, back on forth if it truly is moving NW... especially if you are trying to plot every 15 minutes or so... lets see what the next IR brings.... one thing about it, not hard to find the center of this sucker...
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troy2
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
looking as if TD13 is getting som eof its convection back.
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Londovir
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You aren't kidding about tricks...if I read that right, the plot on that site wants to take it on a hard curl over the tip of the YP, practically coming back southeastward until it bounces off the western edge of the YP, then it rebounds back NW. Somehow I don't see the storm hooking downwards like that, but this storm will pretty much do anything it wants to I guess.
Jay
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Londovir
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Frank P
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latest IR still shows it drifting off to the wnw... I don't think its stationary... slowly drifting.. I have it at 22.32N and 86.69W
over the past hour and 45 minutes Izzy has gone 1.1 degrees north (form 22.21n to 22.32N) and 2.2 degrees west (from 86.47W to 86.69W)... granted not all that much movement but movement still the same
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meto
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its not moving west, cant count on models they are dealing with something very different.
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BillD
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Drifting westward is what the said, and that is what I'm seeing on the Cancun radar. I've been grabbing the graphic from there every 1/2 hour or so, I put some of them up side by side, and the center has barely moved over the last couple of hours, but I see only a westward component.
Bill
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Floridacane
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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Frank, here's the zoom in on that link you posted, pretty awesome eye wall. Thanks for the link.
Lori
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Floridacane
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Sorry, don't know what happened to the link, won't let me post it. So anyway, ignore my last post 
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Kimster
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Loc: Dunedin, FL
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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8conusir.html
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Bill do you have a link to a Cancun radar that loops.. that would certainly help determine if it is moving... from what I've seen on the IR I 'm reasonable sure it has moved some, but not much, over the past hour.... my opinion only...
with such a well defined center iis pretty easy finding its whereabouts...
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Steve
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Bobbi,
I want your read on 'colors.' I'll check back later. Also, for anyone who cares, Bastardi will be doing another late PM post on the tropics tonight. I care, that's why I posted it. I don't know why it's gotten so vogue to trash him, but I think he's the best there is.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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