Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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I predicted MS Coast. The EURO predicts roughly Morgan City as does Bastardi by default since he's going with "Scenario 2" from Thursday or Friday.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Izzy may be hungry for mexican food. gave a pretty good hint their begining to pass on this thing turning north to threaten northern GOM. High pressure may serve to protect the LA to FL gulf coasts, but how that will play into TD13 I don't have a clue. How strong will it build into the western atlantic, and will it also block Lili from going to the fishes? PR will be under the gun in 72hr, prob. with a Cat1. Izzy seems to have that Mitch thing going, he's made up his mind west is best, which is fine by me. I'd say unless he does a major league stall most of us are safe. If he stalls around 90W, I'll rethink it, but I don't see anything down the road to yank him way north if he goes much farther than that.
Not a clue about Karl.
Joe in Jax
Way to go Gators!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Latest IR has Izzy at 22.21N (which is the same lat he was at 4 hours and 45 minutes ago) and 87.03W.... showing another slight wobble just south of due west... but not WSW
30 miles in 4 hours and 45 minutes... my grass grows faster than this thing moves...
but what a beatiful sight on IR
wonder were everyone is tonight?
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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Mike, I emailed it, but its huge, about 1M. I also sent one that's been cropped to about half that size. It includes images from 09/21 2115Z through 9/22 0229Z. The Cancun image updated again. I haven't been able to figure out when it updates and when it doesn't.
Bill
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Yeah Joe I was thinking the same thing about comparing Izzy to Mr. Mitch.. west is best in my opinion, next to dissipation, which is not going to happen...
My forecast for the Fl panhandle is looking rather iffy right now... but a good captain goes down with his ship...
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meto
Weather Guru
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latest track shows it turning north next week.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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isidore's eye is much better defined in the last few hours.. but i see evidence of maybe 3 concentric eyewalls on the cancun radar. intensity is probably going to oscillate a lot as eyewall replacement cycles should be happening next few hours.. probably lead to more erratic center jogs as well. net movement today has been essentially west.. think that will continue through 48hrs.. system should move in jerks 5 to 8mph and temporary stalls. storm total rainfall from this system is going to be catastrophic in various parts of the caribbean/mexico. i dont have any new ideas on endgame movement.. still think the ridge rebuilds and turns it nw on about tuesday, then the strong late week shortwave grabs it and curves it NE into the central gulf coast.
kyle. still not rated a tropical storm, not sure why.. it is one. the passing trough to its north that stopped it will be replaced by ridging aloft and turn it west. it should do the clockwise loop.. start to intensify coming out of it. think the westward movement is maybe a little underdone.
td 13.. that is, soon to be lili... heading for the caribbean. , various models have it turning north late in the period. since it should be intensifying, the ridge periphery probably will mark its turn. as a whole the models tend to take it across the central leeward islands and then very close or over puerto rico as a strengthening category 1 hurricane... in the late monday to early wednesday timeframe. aside from any marilyn-esque strengthening shouldnt be a big deal.
system near the bahamas.. bastardi has dropped the monday coast runner idea... still thinks something may brew up when the ridge rebuilds. there should be a surface trough lingering in the area, but it's wait and see.
system near 30w... has a ssd d-rating on it. 1.0. no invest by yet, but may be one soon. modeling is split into two camps.. one recurves it early, developing a weak system that turns east under the big deep layer trough between the azores and spain. others keep it weak and open and track it west. looks to be worth watching, at least.. but will have a tough time developing.
HF 0346z22september
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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latest IR has Izzy at 22.14N and 87.19W... sure looks likes its moving more WSW as opposed of south of due west... maybe it's going to go inland on the yucatan...
gee I'm storm tracker now.... hehe
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Rick
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
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Good interview w/ Emer. Mngr from Big Easy on CNNs "The Big One" tonight (I think it's on again tomorrow night-check local times). He basically said that if a cat4 or 5 hits N.O., bad things, man...real bad things.
Said the levys and flood walls couldn't take the storm surge of a major and it would then be "Lake New Orleans". 
A lot of points raised here were brought up. Like how there's no funding for model improvements until a coastal city gets an "E" ticket ride in the spin cycle, and rampant coastal developement. And how the uninitiated can't imagine the pure brute strength until they've seen it.
Some time was also spent on weather modification ("Stormfury" NOT dynagel) with Dr. Bob and his predecessor and the ramifications that halted it.
An interesting thing was how they shot a 2x4 at plywood and the only thing that resisted it was 1" thick plywood!
It was cool to see "Dr Bobs Bunker" again, though! (That's what we called it when we were building the new Hurricane Center). Looks like they added a few more antennae to the top from when I last saw it. FYI...That place is 12" thick concrete with another 12" thick concrete interior shell, and if that's not enough, another 12" thick tornado-proof rest room area with provisions for chemical toilets, and standby power generation for the entire place down to the last water fountain and coke machine. (I just hope they did something with the above ground fuel line to protect it from flying debris!)
Sorry for rambling. If it's a repeat, my appologies... I thought it was a new show!
Rick
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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I'd say that Panhandle ship has developed a few holes there, Mr. Stormtracker(wow!).It's does seem that your thoughts were begining to change, even before the 11:00 update. I just don't see him getting up into the Northern GOM at all. I guess there are two things that make me think that way. One is I don't know what has kept him as far south as he as stayed, but he seems determined to hang out down there. More power to him,as far as that goes! Two, I just don't see anything with the reach to pull him anything close to due north. nevermind NE. Can you see him getting pulled into the central gulf, stalling for a day or two, and then getting yanked NE/NNE? Me thinks he just wants to see the sights in Mexico, and could care less about troughs and ridges and anything else that might happen around him. He broke that last front in two like a toothpick and continues west.WSW for reasons only he knows. Be on your way Izzy, send a postcard.
My eyes turn to the east, but I'll look over my shoulder every so often just in case.
Stormtracker! Wow!
Joe in JAX
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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when lili is christened tomorrow it will be the eighth named tropical cyclone to form this month (subtrop kyle withholding the true tropical status so far). there were seven in august 1995, seven in august 2000. i guess the archives oughta be cracked open over this, see if there's a precedent. funny thing is we've got another whole week in this month to go. when's it gonna quit?
HF 0426z22september
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Anyone have a guess where TD 13 will end up? Will go north of PR? Stay NW/WNW threaten FL? Or go into Caribbean? Curious to know your thoughts.
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Rick
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
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After staring at the color IR of Izzy, I got the strangest feeling that it looked familiar. I got a tie-dye that looks just like that! 
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Working for a major airline I was surprised that we didn't cancel most our flights to Cancun today and the 2 we did cancel were rescheduled for tomorrow. I can only imagine the ones we did send got to see quite a show from the air, I envy them in that respect, but after seeing the tornado go through here yesterday you couldn't pay me to fly to Cancun right now. Speaking of that tornado it was officially made an F-3 by the NWS (wind speed 158-206), which was pretty on the mark with my "own personal cat 5" comment.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Just a guess at this point, but its certainly possible that Lili could threaten Florida next weekend - perhaps as a Cat III. Tough call on Puerto Rico - maybe near the northeast tip of the island Wednesday afternoon - but thats still a long way down the road. If you want to see a possible analog track (not for intensity, just for track) check out storm #4 in 1928. Could have three hurricanes in the basin next week - been a long time since we've seen that.
Cheers,
ED
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Very interesting Ed, a #3 took a close track to Isidore and #4 looks like it could be the future track of "soon to be" Lili. Like I said very interesting, see if it pans out.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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td 13/future lili's fate is tied to two big variables: 1)what does kyle do, since it could be in range for the two to affect each other, and 2)does the pinwheel system bastardi is talking about eventually form off the east coast after all, as avn first noted days ago and other models have jumped on.
my first thought for some reason was the mid atlantic to northeast.. but i guess it could go kick florida too. then again probably get tied up with kyle or the other possible development and recurve or do some weird maneuvering. we're in a backed up, jumbled synoptic pattern. its really much too early to call outside the caribbean at this point.
HF 0555z22september
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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latest recon, 937mb. that, friends and neighbors, usually qualifies you for cat 4.. but for some reason the says its winds are still 125mph. i beg to differ.
945mb is usually the borderline between cat 3 and 4. or at least thats what the saffir simpson scale says.
sometimes i dont get those guys.
HF 0559z22september
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Looks like the newest model runs are trending more westward now...LBAR is now trying to take it up just west of the TX/LA border roughly 4 days from now, while the other models are starting to converge on a sub-Texas Mexican landfall area.
I think we can begin to see why the comment from was in the last update as to Izzy not lifting north at all...give it another 12 hours or so of westward movement and I'm beginning to think even the LBAR model is going to fall south to Mexico as well....I think even the SHIPS wind prediction is leveling off a bit. I could have sworn it had Izzy making it up to around 149-150, but now it's sitting more conservative at 144/72 hrs.
Just another wobble in the models....
Jay
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Londovir
Edited by Londovir (Sun Sep 22 2002 06:21 AM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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12. FL (Miami)/MS/AL/Pensacola 1926 4 935 27.61
13. HAZEL (SC/NC) 1954 4 * 938 27.70
If Iz landfell at 937, he'd be #12 on the all time US hitlist (thanks to Kim for the listing in an eariler thread).
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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