Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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The wall has closed itself off again, so I'm guessing the big pressure drop is a precursor to an increase in wind speed. Flight levels winds were 109kt on the last vortex message...curious to see what the dropsondes find.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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If some of the newer model runs pan out, you just might win the prize. Unfortunately, it's a BOOBIE PRIZE! So what are you thinking as far as plans? My wife made me commit to an evacuation if at Cat 5 hit in SE LA is imminent. I reluctantly agreed, well semi-reluctantly anyway. That's always been my breaking point - 4 or 5. But if Isidore is a 4 and threatens N.O., I'm likely going to stay and just let her, the kids and the pictures get out of harm's way.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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scott said Isadore will be at 938 like 3 days back for late saturday night. GOD HE IS A HURRICANE FORCASTING GOD OF THE FUTURE!!!!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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But give Shawn credit for arguing against 20 people for the last week over a TX landfall. If it hits LA - some of the current thinking - then he and Frank P are the closest. I thought MS all along with a bias further east if money was riding on it.
Speaking of LA, for the 4th straight run hits LA as a Cat 3 or 4 (sub 980 per color). That's 00Z 9/22, 12Z and 00Z 9/21, and 12Z 9/20. 00Z 9/20 did not reach the Gulf but looked further eastward.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Numerous posters have suggested over the last 3 days that Isidore would not cross the 90W longitude. Considering he's at 87.4 and moving decidedly due west, if you previously made this prediction, do you still think he's not crossing 90? I like the 's 92.5 as a max west, but their tropical models range from 98.x to 94.x.
Me.
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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I thought we would be looking at a Cat 4 when I got thiis morning......soon I think.
That was a great comment on models Jay:
"Just another wobble in the models.... "
I still feel we have a lot of long days ahead watching this Izzy. My guess on a Cedar Key area landfall seems a long ways off but sticking to it.
Hurric
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200210_model.html
Indeed. 6z runs showing continued bias westward. LBAR argues perhaps one of the worst case scenarios for the US. If it's right, that's a terrible place in TX for a major storm to come in. Gut feeling is it's closer to what may happen than any of the other models UM used in this comparison, may be a bit far to the west still though.
I gotta give props to the for the way they've handled the storm the last 72-96 hours. They've been wishy-washy the last couple of years, but this is a storm that really counts. And despite all the evidence that we may have seen (with 1 or 2 exceptions), they threw the W and WSW tracks - which ordinarily don't make that much sense for what we're dealing with - and done an exceptional job. I know some of those guys (and NWS comrades) read over here, so I'd like to say a big thank you for the good word you're doing with Isidore. All my past criticisms are averaged way up since you get an A+.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Good Morning Everyone. I am here on the beach in the southwest tip of Louisiana. Ive got to admit I am really nervous about this friends. If this thing comes our way it could push tide water to Interstate 10. I feel we are in for some mass evactuations in the coming Days. Steve what are your thoughts and do you think they will evacuate New Orleans?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Yeah Steve I also think the has done a great job with this storm and for that part most of the season... their discussions have also been much improved over the past seasons as well... even injecting a sense of humor at times.
Boy, I was sold on a NGC impact... most of the FL gang was sold on a NE to CF impact... Shawn was the only one who questioned everything and was sold on nothing.... and said it was going west... and his rationale was simple.... why not...
Once this thing gets away from land a Cat 4 looks very probable... I said several days ago it would not be a Camillle... I am still saying this... Camille was practically a perfect storm
but still a Cat 4 is a disaster for who ever get its and it will certainly become their personal Camille
A lot of people need to start warming up the grill for a healthly helping of crow, me included... sure, things can change and probably will so I'll just wait for the fat lady to start warming up before I put the crow on the grill...
but I'm still watching.... now I 've got to go to west al to see my son play a baseball game today..... that sure beats putting up plywood any time...
Edited by Frank P (Sun Sep 22 2002 12:27 PM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Where you at? Cameron? Holly Beach? Could get hairy if the 6z's are right.
And to answer your question, absolutely. If there is any hint after 48 hours of a LA landfall, it's going to start with the usual suspects - Grand Isle and lower Jefferson Parish, Lower Lafourche, Lower Terrebonne, St. Mary Parish, Plaquemines, etc. That's where they usually begin for different reasons. Grand Isle is one of the most susceptible places in the US. There's only one road across the island and it's always inundated long before landfall. The Bayous (Lafourche, Terrebonne, St. Mary) come next because of a lack of access out. The low spot on Hwy. 90 between Lockport and Houma was underwater for weeks after the last threat - /Georges - and it's the only east/west artery for hundreds of thousands of people. Those areas are very low lying and grow worse each year as the land sinks and becomes part of the Gulf of Mexico. There is some flood protection down there, but not much. New Orleans emergency management officials don't shoot from the hip much, but the city can't stop a Cat 4. The concrete floodgates and locks might work up to a fast moving Cat 3, but they can't protect against a Cat 4. They will start with an orderly evacuation of those most difficult to move and then probably onto a general evacuation. Mandatory in LA is like in most other places. If you refuse to leave and they don't take you away, you pass on notification of next of kin. If they fear a threat between New Iberia and Biloxi, they'll start the process. Things should be smoother than for Georges because the I-10 and the I-59 are now ready to be opened up for one way traffic out. That's 6 lanes moving away from town and should ease the pressures we saw during Georges when it took up to 8 hours to get from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. The conservative estimate of 72 hours to evacuate the city is probably now down in the 55 hour range.
Hope that answers your question. Go Saints!
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Too funny Steve,
Read the last discussion update and immediately went back to the list. For those who didn't catch it the first time, here it is again.
The Most Intense Hurricanes In The United States 1900-1996
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Intensity is for time of landfall. The cyclones may have been stronger at other times.
RANKING HURRICANE YEAR
CATEGORY PRESSURE
(MILLIBARS) PRESSURE
(INCHES OF MERCURY)
1. FL (Keys) 1935 5 892 26.35
2. CAMILLE (MS/SE LA/VA) 1969 5 909 26.84
3. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 4 922 27.23
4. FL (Keys)/S TX 1919 4 927 27.37
5. FL (Lake Okeechobee) 1928 4 929 27.43
6. DONNA (FL/Eastern U.S.) 1960 4 930 27.46
7. TX (Galveston) 1900 4 931 27.49
8. LA (Grand Isle) 1909 4 931 27.49
9. LA (New Orleans) 1915 4 931 27.49
10. CARLA (N & Cent. TX) 1961 4 931 27.49
11. HUGO (SC) 1989 4 934 27.58
12. FL (Miami)/MS/AL/Pensacola 1926 4 935 27.61
13. HAZEL (SC/NC) 1954 4 * 938 27.70
14. SE FL/SE LA/MS 1947 4 940 27.76
15. N TX 1932 4 941 27.79
16. GLORIA (Eastern U.S.) 1985 3 *& 942 27.82
17. Opal (NW FL/AL) 1995 3 & 942 27.82
18. AUDREY (SW LA/N TX) 1957 4 # 945 27.91
19. TX (Galveston) 1915 4 # 945 27.91
20. CELIA (S TX) 1970 3 945 27.91
21. ALLEN (S TX) 1980 3 945 27.91
22. NEW ENGLAND 1938 3 * 946 27.94
23. FREDERIC (AL/MS) 1979 3 946 27.94
24. NE U.S. 1944 3 * 947 27.97
25. SC/NC 1906 3 947 27.97
26. BETSY (SE FL/SE LA) 1965 3 948 27.99
27. SE FL/NW FL 1929 3 948 27.99
28. SE FL 1933 3 948 27.99
29. S TX 1916 3 948 27.99
30. MS/AL 1916 3 948 27.99
31. DIANE (NC) 1955 3 + 949 28.02
32. S TX 1933 3 949 28.02
33. BEULAH (S TX) 1967 3 950 28.05
34. HILDA (Central LA) 1964 3 950 28.05
35. GRACIE (SC) 1959 3 950 28.05
36. TX (Central) 1942 3 950 28.05
37. SE FL 1945 3 951 28.08
38. FL (Tampa Bay) 1921 3 952 28.11
39. CARMEN (Central LA) 1974 3 952 28.11
40. EDNA (New England) 1954 3 * 954 28.17
41. SE FL 1949 3 954 28.17
42. FRAN (NC) 1996 3 954 28.17
43. ELOISE (NW FL) 1975 3 955 28.20
44. KING (SE FL) 1950 3 955 28.20
45. CENTRAL LA 1926 3 955 28.20
46. SW LA 1918 3 955 28.20
47. SW FL 1910 3 955 28.20
48. NC 1933 3 957 28.26
49. FL (Keys) 1909 3 957 28.26
50. EASY (NW FL) 1950 3 958 28.29
51. N TX 1941 3 958 28.29
52. NW FL 1917 3 958 28.29
53. N TX 1909 3 958 28.29
54. MS/AL 1906 3 958 28.29
55. ELENA (MS/AL/NW FL) 1985 3 959 28.32
56. CAROL (NE U.S.) 1954 3 * 960 28.35
57. IONE (NC) 1955 3 960 28.35
58. EMILY (NC) 1993 3 960 28.35
59. ALICIA (N TX) 1983 3 962 28.41
60. CONNIE (NC/VA) 1955 3 962 28.41
61. SW FL/NE FL 1944 3 962 28.41
62. CENTRAL LA 1934 3 962 28.41
63. SW FL/NE FL 1948 3 963 28.44
64. NW FL 1936 3 964 28.47
* - Moving more than 30 miles an hour.
& - Highest category justified by winds.
# - Classified Cat. 4 because of estimated winds.
+ - Cape Fear, North Carolina, area only; was a Cat. 2 at final landfall.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIRECT HITS BY HURRICANES U.S. MAINLAND 1900-1996
CATEGORY 5: 2
CATEGORY 4: 15
CATEGORY 3: 47
CATEGORY 2: 37
CATEGORY 1: 57
TOTAL 158
Major hurricanes
(Categories 3,4,5): 64
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canman32
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: Crstview Florida
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Good morning all, first let me say I am glad I found this site, you all seem very knowledgable and its very interesting reading your thoughts.
I dont pretend to know as much as I know some of you do, but if Isadore does indeed go farther west as the indicates, and then turns towards New Orleans, then it would have to be on a NE track.
If it is on a NE track then the MS/AL/FL panhandle would still not be out of the woods.
I live in the Florida panhandle and even though it doesnt look possible right now, i have an uneasy feeling about Izzy right now.
For what its worth, my initial prediction last week was landfall in the Biloxi MS area, I suppose I will stick with it for a while longer.
Thanks again for the great site.
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mr jimmy
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Spring TX
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Most of the models seem to have Iz between the Sabine and Rio Grande in 5 days, or so, but the track seems to take a bit more westerly and northern component instead of the southern BOC motion several of the models are showing. Still looks like a Shawn storm, though, but Steve in Ol' Metairie needs to keep the potted meat and beer handy. (Stocking up on potted meat and vienna sausage is a S. LA tradition for storms). Also, several of the models show some weakening before landfall. No Camille.
Speaking of Camille - After that one, my brother had a job re-roofing houses from the storm damage, and while working on a roof one day, he had to answer the call of nature, and having no toilet tissue, grabbed a handful of pink insulation. You can guess the rest.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Oh man. I can't even imagine. Thanks for the early morning cringe  . LMAO.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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GM Canman32...
Uneasy about Izzy and you live in the panhandle? I would be too! I have always stated that I would stay in my home up to a cat. 2. Izzy is a 3/4 now. This is going to cause severe damage somewhere and probable loss of life. TS's, TD's and Cat. 1's are fun for "hurricane parties" (discussed here from time to time), but not a 3/4. Couldn't even hold on to your Bud! 
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Couldn't even hold on to your Bud!
Better smoke before hand then
Anonymous
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Where has Shawn been recently? Think he's out getting his last minute supplies? I think we should offer him an airline ticket to outta Texas.
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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They say you less likely to get injured in an auto accident if you are relaxed on impact. You may have a valid point. Too funny...
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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a turn to the northeast later could also go ene .
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Steve, I am in Johnson Bayou just west of Holly Beach. Evacs may have to take place sooner than normal due to increase tidal flooding. We for instance have to directions out and they both flood. The tide has never receded since the last storm.
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