Mike
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
|
|
This is what the NWS in Melbourne is thinking today:
EXTENDED...TS LILI NEXT SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING WITH FORECAST
CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF HISPANOLA AND RECURVATURE NORTH EXPECTED AS
REMNANTS OF ISIDORE LIFT NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WOULD EXPECT SOME
TURNING NORTH OF LILI AT SOME POINT. IN SUMMARY EXTENDED FCST
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DUE TO BOTH INDIRECT AND POSSIBLE DIRECT
INFLUENCES OF ACTIVITY IN TROPICS.
I think Lili future depends on when Izzy lifts out.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Hey HF-
Where do you see the center racing ahead of the convection? I have looked at the loops over and over in close up and slow mo, don't see this. My surmise is the center is under the convection...or...unless it is a very small vortex...Lilly is just a very vigourous wave. I don't see much turning there. Whats up?
IHS,
Bill
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
I'm pretty sure you don't need to take my word for it, Isidore looks bad right now. He is very, very crippled. He's cut-off from his moisture source, but I only expect that to last for 12 more hours, at the very most. Isidore will re-strengthen quite a bit in the GOMEX, and this is why: the low central pressure. When is the last time you saw a 60-MPh tropical storm with a 964 mb central pressure. Not too often. Also, Isidore may just go due N instead of NW. Looks like he could also turn more NE because he weaker. If he doesn't intensify back to a category 2 or more in 36 hours, this one's a Florida storm again.
I'm more concerned about Lili, but in a cautious manner. She looks to be very well organized with plenty of deep convection. Some argue that she may a very vigorous tropical wave, but her convection is hiding the circulation. This storm has had a habit of doing this. I'm concerned about Florida in the longer-term. There should be a northward curve with Lili at some point. When this does occur she should be very near a latitude someplace in Florida, so we could see an 90-100 knot storm effect our weather eventually.
Two storms to watch...goody. And yes, Lili may well mimic what Isidore does because the same trough could effect the two storms. Definitely have to keep a watch in the tropics.
Kevin
|
SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
|
|
Isidore still has good structure and that very low pressure will be in play once he hits water. (Could be about 980mb by that time)
Also, remember how Opal went from CAT 1 to 150mph in 12 hours time. Camille went from a TS to a CAT 5 in 2 days time! People need to take this baby as seriously as ever!
SirCane~
--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
towards the east,,may be a cycloid (loop), also note some convection blowing up just to e and ne of center...stay tuned....
IHS,
Bill
|
Skeeter
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
Loc: Florida, Kissimmee
|
|
I am with you, there is so much going on that I find anything hard to believe and almost everything possible at this point. I went to GOES Interactive and looked at global water vapor mosaic and global satellite IR and I just don't see anything that is influencing IZZY to move nnw or due north, it looks to me like nne or ne is going to be the move if at all. That sure is a big wad of convection moving in to South Central Cuba isn't it.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
From what I've just seen I detected a HINT of a minor NNW movement based on where I think the center of the system is.... at first I thought it also wobbled off to the northeast, but after further study I think the ne movement is not at the true center of the storm... could be wrong, and it won't be the first time... problem is finding the true center... like finding a needle in a hay stack....
I'd bet its moving NNW if its moving at all....
|
rick in mobile
Unregistered
|
|
I see it too...interesting, Steve Lyons thinks it is heading north...pointed right to central gulf coast...as landfalling hurricane...
stay tuned...batten down hatches....after izzy, then lilly...
then insanie....
|
LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
|
|
Found these hurricane cartoons to lighten up your day. Some are cute and some are corny.
web page
--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Definitely moving north now. Still appears to have a very good structure. As was pointed out earlier, with the pressure remaining so low, when Izzy reaches open waters, he will bomb again. Joe B still says Cat 3 north central gulf. I see no reason to disagree.
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Was the Nightmare. That was worth wading through all the corny ones.
N.O. update - fast moving low clouds heading SW have been replaced by a phenominal afternoon. Cirrus are moving ESE now. It's a sunshiny day with a nice 10-15 breeze blowing (can't tell which direction downtown because of the buildings. It feels about 85 and low humidity. I gotta guess a front has passed through or something. Looking to the South, there are thicker, mid-level clouds. Don't know what it all means, but that's the report.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
|
|
Isidore possibly showing "slow" movement north. Lili looking better and better.
GO BUCS!!!
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Pressure falling in the central gulf at bouy 42001. Down to near lowst point in last couple of days. Also, the wind is as stron as it has been in the last couple of days. System is starting its trek north. I seem to remeber that some systems start to intensify even before the reemerge. Could this be happening with Izzy. He looks better now than he did earlier in the day.
|
canman32
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 11
Loc: Crstview Florida
|
|
Been at the beaches around Destin all day today and its amazing the boats that are being brought inland. We have a toll bridge leaving the beaches and going inland, there must have been 50 boats/yachts leaving the beaches this morning.
I even noticed the Marinas were taking all the boats out of the water. Maybe they know something we dont?
Hopefully noone will think its over, as Yogi said "it aint over till its over!!"
I still believe Izzy will be a major hurricane for someone.
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
I have to do MNF predictions. Rams vs. Bucs (yeah baby!).
Should be very tight game, as these always are:
Bucs 27
Rams 24
There we go. Also noticed Panthers are 3-0. What going on up there?
Be interesting to see 5:00 PM advisory on Isidore, or even more interesting, Lili.
Kevin
|
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
|
|
Izzy drifting NE, looks like La. or east now. Circulation still looks very good and it shouldn't take much to intensify once over water. 3 days or so to impact. Lili just caused a wind gust to 75 mph on Barbados. Movement will be WNW toward Hispaniola. Should be a hurricane by then.
MNF- Rams 31 Bucs 17 No offense
Dolphins #1 team in Florida 3-0
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Hey all.
Good to see you are all still alive and not in any insane asylums yet from watching this nutty "Izzy" guy. I read on a previous post someone was looking for the co' ords for the storm Izzy. Well I found a pretty cool interactive tracking map on this site http://b.orlandoweather.com/hurricanes/1671649/detail.html
Or just go to www.orlandoweather.com and look for there interactive hurricane tracking map. They have an interesting article on Izzy and the other active storms in the Atlantic.
Thanks for all the great posts folks...... 
take care
Regards
BD
|
Gofins13
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 9
Loc: Crystal River,Fl.
|
|
Dr. Steve said Izzy is drifting N.E.!! But a more turn to the north later--What does this mean??(hum ho)
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
lastfew frames show a west movement again. Why would the trough coming in not force Izzy norteast. They still want to turn him northwest toward the end of the forecast period.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
I would like Rick in Mobile to post more i enjoy reading your post's. I enjoy everyones actually. So whats happening Cause i dont have a clue. He in The Panhandle i am starting to worry alittle. Hope ya'll could supply alittle more info for me I am a novice at this stuff an i would greatly appreciate it.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
